Value Track produce analisi finanziarie – Equity e Credit Research – con rigore metodologico e professionalità al fine di agevolare l’incontro tra società emittenti ed investitori.
I reports includono una dettagliata analisi del mercato di riferimento e dello scenario competitivo e approfondiscono i principali aspetti industriali e finanziari delle società oggetto di analisi.
Le ricerche sono pubblicate di seguito in ordine cronologico.
MailUp Group – Ready to play the big game – In depth Update Report
Since the IPO on AIM Italia, MailUp has shown outstanding growth in terms of financial KPIs and of competences / solutions. In 2020E-21E we expect all MailUp business units to keep growing at double-digit speed and BEE and Datatrics to act a strategic and financial change of pace by strongly increasing R&D and Sales & Marketing expenses in order to fully unlock their great value potential. We revise our “base case” fair equity value per share to €5.50 (up from previous €4.51 p.s.).
Borgosesia SpA – Ready to restart – Initiation of coverage
Borgosesia SpA, is a MTA listed investment company specialized in non-performing special situations where the underlying asset is either real estate assets under interrupted construction or tax credits or receivables. We forecast Net Profit to more than double in 2019E-22E and Net Financial Debt to substantially converge towards zero as cumulated cash in from investments dismissal should more than offset cumulated investments. Assuming, as base case, the conversion of savings shares into new ordinary ones and the placement on the stock market of treasury shares, we calculate €0.96 – €0.99 fair value per share.
Arterra Bioscience – Green, Biotech, Italian …what else? – Initiation of coverage
Arterra Bioscience is an Italian research-based biotech company listed on AIM Italia in November 2019. Arterra is a developer of innovative molecules and manufacturer of bio-active ingredients for the cosmetics industry with ready-to-go applications also for nutraceutics, medical devices and agrochemicals. We see a strong growth potential for Arterra. We expect a 3yrr CAGR of ca. 18% for top line and EBITDA and 8% for adj. net profit. Our valuation delivers a fair value at €4.2 per share compared to €3.7 current market price.
Neodecortech – Closer to MTA translisting – Flash Note post 10M19 figures
Neodecortech released 10M19 financial figures, underlying a top line rebound vs. the weak 1H19 and a good control of operating costs ex raw materials. Net Financial Position was well under control despite investments and dividend cash out. Adjusted for non-recurring costs (MTA translisting project) and from non-monetary stock grant charges, 10M figures were substantially in line with our 2019E full year estimates, so we are only marginally fine tuning our 2019E-20E forecasts.
We keep unchanged our €5.20 per share fair valuation implying 1.0x P/BV and 4.7x Adj. EV/EBITDA 2020E fair multiples.
DHH – 3Q gross sales growing at 17% YoY rate – Flash Note
The company just announced 3Q19 Gross Sales at €1.5mn, up +17% YoY, with positive results coming from almost all geographies where the Group currently operates.
We are not revising our forecasts – pointing at a +17% YoY top-line growth and a Net Cash Position exceeding €3mn in 2019E – and as a consequence we confirm our €10.0 fair value per share.
MailUp Group – Never stop growing – Flash Note on 3Q-9M figures
Nine months results still highlight the company fast growing profile, with all business lines recording sound double-digit growth rates.
We are fine tuning our 2019E-20E forecasts, with topline revised upward on average by 4% and Net Financial Position burdened by higher than previously expected IFRS 16 impact.
We calculate a SoP based updated €4.51 fair value per share (up from previous €4.40), implying 1.1x EV/Sales and 12.6x EV/EBITDA Adj. 2019E multiples.
Vimi Fasteners – Auto still biting, diversification only starts helping – Update Report
1H19 economic performance mirror the negative momentum faced by the auto industry, partially offset by a more resilient market demand for fastening solutions delivered to the oil&gas and infrastructure sectors.
We have revised downward our 2019E-21E estimates by ca. 8% at top-line and by ca. 28% at EBITDA level. Despite the actions taken by management to improve efficiencies, our revised model incorporates a 1-year delay in top line and margin recovery compared to our previous assumptions.
We calculate an updated €2.40 fair value per share (down from previous €2.80).
EdiliziAcrobatica – Organic growth plus Budget Law opportunity – Update report
We are slightly revising upwards our 2019E and 2020E top line forecasts while slightly reviewing downwards EBITDA and Net Profit ones. We now forecast Value of Production and Net Profit to grow at 50% and 33.5% CAGR 2018A-2020E respectively, not yet taking into account the possible upside deriving from the recently announced introduction of government tax subsidies providing 90% tax credits for redoing the front of house and condominium.
We calculate an updated €8.4 fair value per share (up from the previous €5.5 fair value per share). At such fair value the company would trade at 1.2x EV/Sales’20E and 8.3x EV/EBITDA’20E respectively.
AIM Italia Stock Market – 1H19 reporting season – Thematic report
Growth recorded in 1H19 remains strong at top line but falls at bottom one as a consequence of an unexpectedly high correlation with weakening macroeconomic stance that has negatively impacted the economic and financial performance of several companies.
We calculate that nearly half of companies recorded Net Profit down YoY while, on the other side, 33% and 41% of companies reported Top line and Net Profit up in excess of 20% YoY.
A full list of AIM Italia best performing companies in 1H19 reporting season can be found inside the report.
Relatech – So far so good – Update Report
1H19 financial results provide the evidence of Relatech’s fast-growing profile, still highlighting double-digit growth rates across main key items, as a result of both business expansion and the incorporation of ex-Connexò business line (now Relatech Consulting) in the consolidation perimeter. We are leaving unchanged our 2019E-20E estimates, but we are aware that if the current positive momentum continues, there is room for future upward revisions.
We revise upwards our fair value to €3.40 per share (from €2.80), following a slight rerating of peers and assuming 2020 as investment horizon.
Costamp Group – Leading indicator on car component industry – Update report
Costamp is a good leading indicator for the whole car component industry and we are not surprised that it recorded 1H19 revenues down. On the positive side, orders book at the end of June 2019 stood at €54.8mn vs. €46.0mn as of one year before and output capacity is almost entirely utilized up to Spring 2020.
Based on our updated 2019E-21E estimates and on the current €2.10 per share market price, the company is currently trading at ca. 1.7x EV/Sales, 20.6x EV/EBIT and 30.1 P/E 2021E respectively.
MailUp Group – At full steam – Flash Note
MailUp Group unveiled 3Q19 Gross Sales figures at €14.6mn, +68% YoY (+60% on a l-f-l basis), slightly higher than the +63% YoY as of 1H19.
Despite the higher than average growth rate in 3Q we are maintaining unchanged our full year 2019E-20E estimates and we confirm our fair valuation on MailUp Group shares at €4.40, with upward potential in the future. Qualitative wise, we expect BEE and Datatrics to be the main value creation levers ahead.
Esautomotion – US vs. China frictions take their tolls – Update Report
Esautomotion 1H19 figures are in line with the company’s strategy to progressively increase markets penetration even if the weakness of the global reference market has determined the necessity to be more aggressive from a commercial point of view and has thus led to a sharp decrease of profitability.
We are updating our 2019E-20E estimates by revising downwards top line by ca. 10% and profitability (operating and net) by -30% / -40% as we expect the cloudy macroeconomic and geopolitical scenario to improve only in a few quarters. A possible approval of “patent box” is not factored in our estimates yet and could represent a positive surprise.
We calculate a fair equity value of €3.70 per share (13% below our previous one and 27% higher than the €2.90 IPO Price).
BIODUE – Bye Bye BioDue – Update Report post 1H19 results
The company has recorded interim results that offer a mixed picture: a relatively supportive top line (+3.3% y/y) but weaker margins (-160bp for EBITDA y/y).
We have fine tuned our forecasts, with FY2019E revenues cut by 2%, bottom line by 4% and Net debt also adjusted upward.
Following the acquisition of the majority stake by Armònia Italy Fund (announced in August) at €6.50 per share, a public tender offer will be promoted at the same price and values BioDue at 10.0x EV/EBITDA, 14.0x EV/EBIT and 15.1x P/E (2019E), broadly aligned to peers’ group.
Neodecortech – Fighting with nails and teeth – Update Report
Décor paper market is currently suffering from a decline in demand. Within this scenario, Neodecortech has clearly outperformed thanks to its focus on higher value added niches and to its vertically integrated structure.
While Neodecortech shares remain in our view undervalued, we are fine tuning our fair valuation at €5.20 per share (down from the previous €5.40) implying fair 1.0x P/BV and 5.5x Adj. EV/EBITDA 2020E multiples.
DHH – Ready to take a leap forward – In-depth Report
DHH is a tech group that provides “virtual infrastructures” to run websites, apps, e-commerce and SaaS solutions to 100.000+ clients across southeast Europe, where expected growth is higher thanks to current lower digital penetration.
The group is now expected to deliver positive financial results ahead, with business growing at double-digit CAGR by 2020E, a positive cash generation (>80% EBITDA cash conversion rate) and an increasingly sound net cash position.
DHH “intrinsic” fair value with current unlevered capital structure stands at €9.5 per share. Furthermore, we believe that DHH could be an appealing target /partner for larger companies willing to enter several countries at once without investing a high amount of time and money to implement solutions suitable for those markets starting from scratch. In this case, DHH “all-in” fair equity value might be between €10.5 and €11.5 per share.
MailUp Group – Always delivering good results – Update Report
MailUp Group’s 1H19 financial figures recently released confirm the company fast growing profile and cash generation capability.
If Agile Telecom has been the driver of latest quarters growth, we expect BEE and Datatrics to be the main value creation levers ahead.
We confirm our fair value at €4.40 per share. At such fair value, the stock would trade at 1.0x EV/Sales 2019E and 10.8x EV/EBITDA Adj. 2019..
RELATECH – Enabling corporates going “digital” – Initiation of coverage
Relatech provides solutions and services for corporates’ digitalization. Value of Production grew from €3mn up to ca. €19mn (2019E) in four years. Adjusted EBIT margin 2019E should stand at around 13% and net financial position post IPO is positive. The company has a light capital employed, achieving a ROCE after tax around 35%.
We expect top line and earnings up at a low double annual digit rate in the next few years. After tax, OpFCF/EBITDA conversion rate should remain at extremely high level allowing the company to pile further free cash flow, to be used to fund M&A activity.
We assess Relatech fair value at €2.8 per share or 9.8x 2019E Adj. EV/EBIT and 15.1x Adj. P/E. As the company has issued in IPO also 9.3mn warrants, which may increase by ca 50% the number of outstanding shares, the fully diluted 2020E adj. P/E at fair value would be 17.3x.
MailUp Group – Another all-time high quarter – Flash Note
MailUp Group unveiled 2Q19 gross sales figure at €15.7mn, +65% YoY (+60% on a l-f-l basis), implying 1H19 gross sales at €29.3m (+58% YoY), driven in absolute terms by the astonishing growth of Agile Telecom (+94% YoY in 2Q). We are revising upwards our 2019E onwards estimates. Overall, we are now forecasting a 52% top line growth YoY in 2019E, and a 64% one at the bottom line level.
Based on our new 2019E-21E forecasts we are increasing MailUp shares fair value at €4.40 per share (up from previous €3.88 per share).
SG Company – 2019E-22E guidelines unveiled – Flash Note
SG Company has unveiled 2019E-22E strategic guidelines. The outlined vision is, in our view, highly convincing even if it obviously implies a certain execution risk. In terms of financials, 2019 should be viewed as a transition year with financials targets in the low end of our range while 2022E ones are in line and underpin a rebound of both top line and profitability.
We confirm a €2.50 fair equity value per share to be possibly adjusted depending on the number of bonus shares to be issued at the end of July.
EDILIZIACROBATICA – Still growing at 74% rate – Flash Note
EdiliziAcrobatica has released its for first five months 2019 orders intake figure standing at €18.5mn, i.e. +74.4% YoY growth rate.
We are slightly reviewing upwards our 2019E full-year Value of Production estimate at €43.3mn. At the same time, we reckon that in 2020E there’s room for future upward revision of margins and profits. For the time being we maintain unchanged our fair value but the outlook is positive.
Costamp Group – Waiting for clouds to fade away – update report
Since 2H18 the car market is undergoing a phase of slowdown. Although the slowdown is expected to persist on 1H19E, second half of the year is poised to restart a positive growth path, at least due to an easier YoY comparison. A full recovery is expected only as of 2021E when we expect the group to achieve EBITDA margins above 10% and Net Debt / EBITDA ratio to decrease at ca. 2x.
If transition to electric has meant a delay in car production in the latest months, thus driving a cut in short term estimates, on the contrary it still represents a huge opportunity in the medium term. From this point of view, Costamp remains strategically well positioned.
SG Company (SGC.MI / SGC IM) – Investing now for future harvesting – Update report
Since its IPO back in summer 2018, SG Company on the one side has acquired or established from scratch several businesses in order to start offering to clients a “one stop shop” portfolio of integrated communications services and solutions, and on the other one has recruited new experienced managers with the aim to exploit intragroup synergies and cross selling opportunities. An increase of the weight of higher margins proprietary concept events is also in the cards.
As SG Company is in the middle of an extraordinary growth plan we deem it appropriate to provide a fair valuation based primarily on DCF methodology, with peers analysis being utilized for cross check purposes. The result is an updated fair equity value per share at €2.50.
AIM Italia Stock Market – 2018FY reporting season – Thematic report
We have taken into account all AIM Italia listed companies (excluding SPACs pre business combination) that have reported FY2018 figures by mid of May. Despite a tough Q4 2018 in terms of macro outlook, momentum was strong: 1) Aggregated Revenues were up +12% YoY to €5.4bn; 2) EBITDA was up a more than proportionally: +19% YoY (12.4% margin); 3) Reported / Adj. Net Earnings grew even stronger (+39% /+45% YoY respectively).
As far as single companies are concerned, we have updated our scouting exercise in search of potential “good stories” offering strong and sustainable growth with innovative business profiles. A full list of AIM Italia “champions” can be found inside the report.
EDILIZIACROBATICA – Sunshine over EdAc – Flash Note
EdAc has released its 1Q19 Value of Production figure that stood at €8.3mn, i.e. a sound +74% YoY growth rate, and definitely higher than our 2019E full year top line increase forecast. That said, we reckon that first quarter is normally “lighter” if compared to the rest of the year, and that an exceptionally sunny 1Q could have helped.
EdAc is steadily and consistently delivering its IPO promises with an outstanding business momentum. So, we are confident in revising upward our fair valuation at €6.00 per share, (up from the previous €5.50 per share).
Vimi Fasteners – Betting on demand turnaround in 2H19 – Update Report
FY18 results came in well below our forecasts, highlighting negative growth in main financial items, except for top-line (+4.0% YoY). Profitability has been strongly affected by the reverse trend faced by the automotive market. On the back of weaker macroeconomic scenario and disappointing car sales momentum, we have revised downward our 2019E-20E estimates by ca. 14% at top-line and by ca. 45% at bottom line. Following a tough 1H 2019, we assume revenues to turn back to positive growth in the second half of the year. We calculate an updated €2.80 fair value per share which implies 2020E multiples of 6.2x EV/EBITDA and 14.2x P/E.
ESAUTOMOTION – Going (Far) East to make profits everywhere – Update Report
In 2018FY the company posted another year of double digit growth. Revenues from Chinese clients, in particular, grew +47% YoY. Chinese clients now account for roughly 14% of total revenues.
In 2019E-20E we expect Esautomotion to boast average annual growth rates in excess of 15% and EBITDA Margin to stay in the 28-31% range. At current market price the stock is trading at multiples that we view as too sacrificed given the superior quality of the equity story and the “scarcity” value which is driving a number of M&A deals on European CNC players. We confirm fair value per share at €4.26.
Neodecortech – A well managed company offsets market headwinds – Update Report
2018FY has been the proof that Neodecortech (NDT) can fiercely face market headwinds thanks to its vertically integrated structure and to good management of growth opportunities.
We are revising upwards our 2019E-20E financial forecasts even if we maintain a “raw materials buffer” on our EBITDA forecasts to be possibly removed after 1H19 results. We now expect EBITDA at €18mn – €18.8mn in 2019E-20E thanks to higher capacity utilization and to growth of more profitable Plastic Films segment.
We update our fair valuation at €5.40 per share as a result of higher 2019E-20E forecasts only partially offset by a higher Italian Equity Risk Premium impacting DCF value.
MailUp Group – And growth goes on and on – Flash Note
1Q19 Gross Sales figures grew +50% YoY to €13.6m, definitively better than our current 2019E estimates foreseeing a ca. 30% Top Line growth.
As 3Q-4Q will have a tougher statistical comparison YoY, for the time being we are not changing our 2019E forecasts, but we reckon that if the current positive momentum continues, an upward revision could be in the cards. We confirm our fair valuation on MailUp Group at ca. €3.88 per share. At fair value, MailUp shares would trade at ca. 1.0x EV/Sales 2019E and 10.6x EV/EBITDA 2019E.
Triboo Group – Mild recovery in place, acceleration needed – Update Note post FY18 results
2018 was a year of mild economic and financial recovery for Triboo group. Net of one offs, Group’s profitability was stable and Net Debt position as well, as the operating cash flow has been offset by higher than expected capex. We have maintained substantially unchanged 2019E forecasts.
A clear strategy is established and is based on: 1) internationalization; 2) widening / integration of portfolio of services; 3) optimization of “go to market” and; 4) increase of intragroup revenues synergies. Priority is now execution and cash cost control.
We update our valuation on Triboo at €2.75 fair value per share, down vs. the previous €3.00, incorporating on one side a reduction in peers multiples and on the other one a higher WACC for DCF.
BIODUE – 2018 results meet (challenging) expectations – Update Report post FY18 results
The company has recorded a good set of financial results in 2018FY: Top line up 14% YoY, EBITDA up 72%, Net Profit almost doubled and DPS increased.
We are updating our 2019E-20E estimates by: 1) slightly revising upwards revenues growth, 2) factoring a higher margin expansion.
We calculate an updated €6.20 fair value per share which implies 8.9x EV/EBITDA ’19E and 13.9x P/E’19E respectively, for a Group expected to deliver 3yy CAGR of 18% for EBITDA and 21% for Net Profit.
EDILIZIACROBATICA – Disruptive growth – Update report post FY18 results
The company has recorded in 2018FY extremely positive financial results that confirm the high scalability of EdAc business model: Value of production €26.2mn up 51% YoY, Net Profit doubled to €2.2mn, zero debt thanks to IPO proceeds.
We are updating our 2019E-20E estimates by: 1) slightly revising upwards organic growth; 2) adding the newly acquired French subsidiary. Our new 2019E-20E forecasts point to 41.4% Revenues CAGR 2018A-20E with EBITDA and EBIT doubling 2020E vs. 2018A.
We calculate an updated €5.50 fair value per share (up from the previous €4.75) that doesn’t include for the time being the newly started French project that in case of successful execution could be worth, alone, €1.5-€2.6 additional value per share. At €5.50 fair value EdAc shares would trade at 6.7x EV/EBITDA ’19E, 7.5x EV/EBIT’19E and 11.8x P/E’19E respectively.
MailUp Group – Higher growth, higher profits – Update Report post FY2018 results
MailUp Group recorded a double digit growth for all Profit & Loss items. Overall, 2018FY figures were slightly better than expected at top line and Operating Profit level. Only the Net Financial Position came out worse than our estimates.
On the back of these results, we revised our 2019E-’20E estimates by slightly revising upwards P&L forecasts and marginally decreasing Net Cash position as an effect of lower starting point in 2019.
We update our fair valuation on MailUp Group at €3.88 per share. At fair value, MailUp shares would trade at ca. 1.0x EV/Sales 2019E and 10.6x EV/EBITDA 2019E.
EdiliziAcrobatica – Climbing on growth – Initiation of coverage
EdiliziAcrobatica (EdAc) is disrupting the market through its innovative “double safety rope” technique that brings important advantages to clients during the work at high such as: a) cost effectiveness; b) total safety; c) flexible accessibility to building parts; d) no aesthetics impact.
EdAc is rapidly scaling up its business nationwide (and abroad, in the near future). We note that growth has been so far not only rapid but also resilient to macroeconomic crises. In 2018E-20E we expect EdAc to grow at 37% organic CAGR, maintaining EBIT margin in the 16.0% region and remaining cash positive.
We calculate a minimum €4.75 fair value per share. At such fair value the company would trade at 6.0x EV/EBITDA 2019E and 11.9x P/E 2019E respectively.
MailUp Group – Pioneering the “digital” West – In-depth Note
We feel that MailUp Group is quite well positioned in relation to the main trends / needs that are driving MarTech industry in 2019. This is demonstrated by the rapid growth of top line: FY18 gross sales were up +48% YoY (+56% YoY in 4Q 18). Worthy of notice, these figures do not include yet the newly acquired company Datatrics.
We update our fair valuation on MailUp Group at €3.82 per share. At fair value, MailUp shares would trade at very affordable multiples, i.e. ca. 1.0x EV / Sales 2019E and 10.6x EV / EBITDA 2019E.
AIM Italia – Multipli IPO 2009/2018 – Report tematico
I multipli di IPO 2015-’18 sono pari a 10x EV/EBITDA and 22x P/E. Per le sole operazioni del 2018, l’ EV/EBITDA medio è stato pari a un più contenuto 6.5x.
I multipli di IPO sono solo marginalmente correlati alla profittabilità o ai tassi di crescita attesi. Conta maggiormente la credibilità dell’equity story e del management.
E’ solo nelle ultime IPO che è emerso un premio valutativo legato alla quotazione su MTA invece che su AIM Italia.
Per ricevere il report completo, si prega di mandare una mail a email@example.com
Vimi Fasteners – IPO and diversification to unlock growth potential – Initiation of coverage
Vimi Fasteners is a well established player in the design and manufacturing of high engineered fastening solutions for a broad variety of industrial applications, ranging from automotive to oil & gas and aerospace. Its recent IPO should enable management to accelerate its expansion / diversification strategy, also through selective M&A, in order to: a) capture new market opportunities; b) strengthen its manufacturing competitiveness; c) reduce its exposure to the automotive industry.
We initiate coverage on Vimi Fasteners with a €4.0 fair value per share, i.e. a ca. 25% upside potential. At fair value Vimi shares would trade at 2018E multiples of 7.4x EV/EBITDA Adj., 12.0x EV/EBIT Adj. and 14.7x Adj. P/E.
DHH – On the “cloud” to look beyond the horizon – Update Report
DHH has announced the acquisition of mCloud, a Serbian cloud computing startup. We believe that the deal well fits with the already established growth strategies of DHH Group. As far as latest financials are concerned, i.e. 1H18 figures, we note that DHH is maintaining a healthy double-digit top line growth rate with an increasing profitability and a steady cash generation.
We assess a €10.30 per share fair value, i.e. 10 bps higher with respect to fair value calculated in our previous notes.
MailUp Group – Sector M&A adds speculative appeal – Flash Note
Twilio and SendGrid, US based leading players in the MarTech space, have just announced a US$10bn worth paper based merger deal. Based on announced merger terms, SendGrid has been valued 10.0x and 7.9x EV/Sales 2018E-19E respectively.
Our take from the deal is that smaller MarTech players such as MailUp offering solid geographical footprint and innovative services / products range should be all viewed as possible targets and deserve a speculative premium.
We underline that MailUp at current market price, is valued ca. 0.8x EV/Sales 2019 i.e. ten times less, and even at our €3.74 p.s. fair value would trade at 1.1x EV / Sales 2019E.
Costamp Group – Synergies to mould the future – Update report
The first half of the year has been characterized by a ca. 17% YoY top line growth, in line with full year expectations. EBIT almost doubled and Net Profit grew exponentially. The group generated a positive free cash flow that contributed to reduce the Net Debt position. We fine-tuned our estimates by: 1) keeping unchanged our top line forecasts as backlog is close to all-time high, 2) slightly revising downward the expected profitability improvement pace due to MBR integration costs and to “puzzle die” technology R&D costs, 3) taking into account a better working capital management leading to higher cash flow generation.
ESAUTOMOTION – 1H18: Export and R&D as drivers of growth – Update Report
1H18 has been characterized by close to 30% top-line growth. Net Profit was up +41.9% YoY. We feel that there could be some room to revise our 2018E-19E top line forecasts upwards while maintaining unchanged estimates on EBITDA-EBIT-Net Profit. We confirm our €4.26 fair value per share.
SG Company – Good ingredients to stand out of the crowd – Initiation of coverage
SG Company provides to more than 140 corporate clients services such as B2B events organization & management and solutions / support in terms of offline and online communication. Furthermore, the Group is also entering the live communication B2C segment and reinforcing its digital communication services offer.
In 2018E-20E, SG Company is expected to increase its Revenues at 14% CAGR and to maintain its EBIT margin stable at ca. 10%. The Company generates cash and is cash positive. We expect SG Company in the whole period to maintain its extremely high ROE.
At current market price the stock is trading at 9.0x EV/EBIT’18E and – 15.5x PE’18E respectively. Our valuation analysis leads to €3.10 fair value per share, which implies more than 25% potential upside.
MailUp Group – Sailing on waves of growth – Update Report
MailUp group 1H18 interim performance has been pushed by a solid double-digit top line growth (ca. +38% YoY) well distributed across business lines. Following the publication of interim results we confirm our positive view on company’s growth trend and we are revising upwards our 2018E-onwards top line estimates.
We set a fair value per share at €3.74, up from previous €3.45, incorporating a faster organic growth. At fair value, MailUp shares would trade at 1.1x EV / Sales 2019E and 9.6x EV / EBITDA 2019E.
Neodecortech – Stronger than raw materials headwind – Update Report
1H18 was a good semester in terms of business evolution, with top line up +7.5% YoY and EBITDA Margin at 12.2%, +120 bps YoY. Post 1H18 figures we are maintaining unchanged our financial forecasts even if we note that, as far as 2018E is concerned, we are pretty confident that the company can easily beat our current estimates.
We update our fair valuation at €5.10 per share, substantially unchanged. At fair value the stock would trade at “affordable” 6.0x EV/EBITDA – 8.7x P/E 2019E.
Triboo Group – Seeds planted. Ready to collect in 2H18 – Update Report
1H18 financials have been affected by non recurring items, namely capital gain on disposals and one off expenses to transfer to MTA stock market, finalized in June. That said, Value of Production was up +7.5% YoY and Reported EBITDA was up 25% YoY, (-25% on Adj. basis). Net Debt decreased to €3.2mn from €7.1mn.
We update our valuation on Triboo at €3.00 fair value per share, down vs. the previous €3.45, incorporating both a reduction in eCommerce peers’ multiples and a higher WACC for DCF due to higher implied Italian Equity Risk Premium.
BioDue – A brisk walk, also thanks to extracts – Update Report
1H results provide evidence that: 1) the company keeps growing, 2) margin upside is materializing, 3) capex plan is on track, and 4) small scale M&A (small deal announced in July) is a feasible, value enhancing growth path.
We leave unchanged our €6.0 Fair Value per share, coming from the average between peer analysis and DCF model and implying 10.4x EV/EBITDA and 18.1x P/E on 2018E.
MailUp Group – M&A deal to stay “ahead of the curve”
MailUp Group has just announced the acquisition of a Dutch start-up called Datatrics, an innovative “artificial intelligence” based Customer Data management Platform (CDP).
that should allow MailUp Group to stay “ahead of the curve” in the fast moving Mar-tech space.
Post synergies we expect Datatrics to boost MailUp Group’s EBITDA by ca. 22% and 51% in 2020E-21E. On P/E we expect the deal to be counterdiluitive by 2020E while on EV/EBITDA it should become counterdiluitive only by 2021E due to current very low stock market price of MailUp shares.
Esautomotion – Coupling fast growth and high profitability – Initiation of coverage
Esautomotion is a well-experienced leader in the design and production of “high end” mechatronics solutions for the automation of industrial production machines, ranging from Computerized Numerical Control systems (CNC) to Drivers, Software and Brushless motors.
In 2018E-20E, Esautomotion is expected to increase its Revenues at 20% CAGR and to maintain its already outstanding EBITDA margin higher than 30% and stellar ROIC, at ca. 60% before tax and close to 50% after tax.
At current market price the stock is trading at 6.3x EV/EBITDA’18E and – 13.6x PE’18E respectively. We believe that the superior quality of the equity story (fast growth, high profitability) justifies much higher multiples. Indeed, our valuation analysis leads to €4.26 fair value per share, which implies a ca. 30% of potential upside.
CDR ADVANCE CAPITAL – Business model profitability is proven – Update Report
After many “stop and go” phases and complex negotiations, the finalization of the aggregation deal with Borgosesia SpA is getting closer.
In 2018E-19E we expect NAV to increase at a higher than 5% CAGR17A-19E and DPS (A shares) to increase at ca. 9% CAGR17A-19E.
A shares (listed on AIM Italia MTF) are trading at very affordable multiples i.e. 6.3x P/E, 5.4% Dividend Yield and 0.60x P/NAV (Peers are trading at 0.86x P/NAV). We set an updated €1.76 fair value per share.
Costamp Group – Casting the e-mobility revolution – Initiation of coverage
Costamp Group is a worldwide leader in the engineering and production of dies / moulds for automotive components manufacturing and one of the very few players worldwide boasting a complete offer in terms of casting processes and products.
In our Base Case scenario we expect 2017PF-20E Revenues growing at ca. +12% CAGR, compared to the latest four years +16% annual pace. Externalization of low value productions and commercialization of “Puzzle-Die” (an innovative and patented technology aimed at significantly increasing aluminum dies lifetime) should drive profitability up more than proportionally, with 2017PF-20E EBITDA growing at ca. +43% CAGR.
BioDue – When supplements naturally push performance – Initiation of coverage
BioDue is a leading player in the Italian nutraceutical market that develops, manufactures and distributes food supplements, cosmetics, medical devices and herbal products. The equity story offers a combination of attractive structural factors – growing reference markets and solid history – and positive short term drivers: a major capex plan comes to end in 2018 and top line and earnings momentum are expected to accelerate.
We initiate coverage on BioDue with a €6.0 Fair Value per share which we view as fair in the light of the forecasted growth of 29% for EBITDA and 34% for adjusted earnings (2017-2020E CAGR). Results delivery in the following quarters will be key for stock re-rating.
Triboo: Exit from Friendz with 7.5x return on investment – Flash Note
Triboo has announced the successful disposal of its 20.32% stake in Friendz S.r.l. for an amount of €2.955.000, an impressive 7.5x cash return multiple in less than two years.
As a result of the transaction, we revise upward our 2018E Reported Net Profit to €4.5mn and considered €2.9mn cash in benefit in Net Financial Position.
We upgrade our fair value per share to €3.45, up €0.09 from previous €3.36.
AIM Italia Stock Market – 2017 reporting season – Thematic report
Out of the ca. 86 stocks listed as of end of April, i.e. excluding SPACs pre business combination, 71 companies have released their 2017 results within the end of April, with Aggregated Revenues up +13% YoY at €3.82bn, EBITDA +17% YoY at €443mn, Adjusted Net Profit +54% YoY at €88mn. Yet, aggregated data hide a very diversified universe and 2017 results show a clear polarization: one third of companies are still loss making and half released negative earnings growth.
Triboo: Growth potential not fully exploited yet – Update Report
We lowered our top-line forecasts given an increasing competitive scenario in the eCommerce space and revised ca. 20% downward our FY EBITDA 2018 estimates, mainly due to take up of new contracts, such as the recently signed with Aeffe, starting to impact positively only as of 2H18.
We set a fair value per share at €3.36, down from previous €4.00. Two points to take into account:
1) By trading at multiples similar to Media peers, the current price does not reflect the outstanding growth of the eCommerce division, which comes at a small risk.
2) Triboo Shangai, recently certified by Alibaba as unique Tmall partner, is opening the Chinese doors to Group’s clients online sales.
Neodecortech – Everything ok but for raw materials – Update Report
Our base case for 2018E-19E financial evolution leads to revenues up at mid single digit CAGR and industrial EBITDA margin improving at ca. 13% thanks to output capacity progressive saturation and to higher incidence of highly profitable LVT segment.
We confirm our €5.15 fair value per share, a higher than 30% upside from current market level, and we note that at current market price the stock is trading at 0.8x P/BV ’19E with a ROE at 12.4%, well above the cost of equity.
MailUp Group – A growth story with robust roots – Update Report
In 2018E-19E we expect MailUp Group to attain at double-digit growth pace and to improve its profitability, while maintaining a positive net cash position.
We expect a mounting speculative appeal on Italian stocks such as MailUp as a consequence of the widening valuation gap vs. US-UK players and we note that the US based subsidiary BEE has an ever-increasing valuation potential, as it can become the global market standard editor for email and landing page creation.
We set a fair value per share at €3.45, marginally up from previous €3.35.
AIM Italia Stock Market – Little AIM grows up – Thematic report
AIM Italia seems to have eventually entered a steady and visible path of growth with ca. 100 stocks listed and an aggregate market capitalization in excess of €6.3bn.
Liquidity as well dramatically improved in 2017, with ca. €2bn total traded turnover (vs. €310mn as of 2016) and 86% of actively traded days / listing days (vs. 62% as of 2016).
However, we hint that further effort is needed (in terms of equity research coverage, corporate access, higher free float) in order to make AIM Italia an entirely efficient marketplace.
DHH -Positively adapting to new market environment – Update Report
In 2018E-19E we expect DHH to continue its double-digit growth pace, to progressively increase its operating profitability and to maintain a sound cash generation.
All valuation criteria confirm the high discount at which DHH shares are currently trading. We confirm a €10.20 fair value per share.
DHH – Building the Internet platform of the Emerging Markets of Europe
DHH is an industrial investment company active in the European SaaS based web services / cloud computing market with a focus on areas with higher growth opportunities thanks to lower digital penetration. Revenues are small but growing fast and highly visible. EBITDA cash conversion is structurally close to 100%.
Based on current perimeter of consolidation and on current number of outstanding shares we calculate a €10.2 fair value per share compared to current €7.4 market price. This is consistent with a €9.6 fully diluted fair value that assumes that some 84k new (bonus) shares are issued for free in July 2019.
Triboo – Enabling companies to profit from digital – Initiation of coverage
Triboo Group is made of two business units both supporting Italian corporates in their effort to fully exploit the opportunities of the digital revolution. The eCommerce business unit acts as a “one-stop-shop” outsourcer with a highly scalable and low risk business model. The Media business unit offers a wide range of digital advertising-related services and successful editorial content provision.
Sum-of-the-Parts and DCF valuation lead to ca. €4.0 fair value per share, which implies a ca. 57% upside potential vs. current market price. We remind that Triboo Group recently approved the move to MTA Stock Exchange.
Neodecortech – The Italian way to décor surfaces – Initiation of coverage
With this in-depth analysis we initiate coverage on Neodecortech, a recently listed company active in the niche of decorative surfaces design and manufacturing (mostly paper but more recently also plastic) for interior design and flooring industries.
We set a €5.15 fair value on Neodecortech shares.
MailUp – Combining growth and cash generation
Growth is accelerating, cash generation remains healthy and hints from sector are positive, even if profitability is still subdued.
Updating stock valuation we get to a €3.35 fair value per share (down from the previous €3.50).
SITI B&T – Negotiating profitability for growth
Healthy ceramic machinery stance and a more aggressive commercial policy are driving a faster revenues growth coupled with slightly lower operating margins and higher net debt position.
Taking into account on one side the upward re-rating of sector multiples and on the other side the higher expected company’s net debt position leads to a €10.70 fair value (down from the previous €11.0 per share).
CDR ADVANCE CAPITAL – Investing at one, divesting at two… in three years – Initiation of coverage
CdR Advance Capital invests in “single names” non-performing credits. Alongside, the company is also rolling out a solid fee driven business.
As far as A shares (listed on AIM Italia market), we get to a €1.59 fair value which implies a ca. 70% upside potential vs. current market price.
SITI B&T – Sector Machinery – Update Report
FY2017 seems to be taken off quite well sustained by healthy demand for both Tile and Sanitaryware machineries and by the progressive ramp up of Customer Care revenues. Overall, we expect Adj. Net Profit to increase by an average 8%-9% per annum in the next three years.
We fine-tune upwards SITI B&T’s fair value at €11.0 per share on the bank of sector multiples rerating.
MailUp – Surfing the marketing technology revolution
MailUp Group ranks among the top five to ten cloud based marketing technology players in Europe with services ranging from email marketing to mobile messaging activities and from email editing tools to professional consulting services.
On multiples we get to €3.50 per share fair value while DCF, Sum-of-the-Parts and other valuation methods lead to insightful findings in the €3.09-3.86 range.
Energica M.C. – Ready to scale up
Despite its young age, Energica has already gone a long way. Almost all the R&D effort, models development, output capacity rollout and vendor financing strategy has been finalised while network distribution set up is on going and marketing activity is mounting. Everything is ready for sales to scale up in the next to come Spring season.
Our risk-adjusted valuation analysis points at a €4.1-€4.6 Fair Value vs. the current €3.0 market price.
SITI B&T – Ceramic Machinery Market Steadily Positive – Update post 1H16 results
The outlook of the Ceramic machinery sector remains positive, as confirmed by the all-time-high attendance at Tecnargilla, the most important sector exhibition in the world, and in this report we note how SITI B&T is benefitting from it with double-digit top line growth rate.
Updating the valuation assessment returns an almost unchanged €10.30 fair value per share.
Piteco – Investing for growth – Update 1H16 results
During the first part of 2016 fiscal year Piteco SpA has maintained a healthy cash generation pace, balancing organic and M&A driven business development. In this report we analyse the company’s main growth opportunities such as client base expansion, commercial partnership in Mexico, possible acquisitions in the US and in Italy.
We confirm a €4.85 fair value.
SITI B&T – Preview of 1H 2016 results
In this report we update on SITI B&T main development efforts i.e. product range development, output capacity reshaping, commercial and customer assistance international expansion. Furthermore we detail on the company’s peculiar business seasonality characterised by a second part of the fiscal year much stronger than the first one.
We confirm a €10.5 fair value per share.
Piteco – Moving fast – Initiation of coverage
With this in-depth analysis we initiate our coverage of Piteco SpA, listed on AIM Italia back on July 2015. Piteco is an Italian based leadingsoftware house that develops and distributes proprietary solutions aimed at managing corporates’ treasury & cash flow activities and workflow towards national and international banks.
We set a €4.85 fair value on Piteco shares.
SITI B&T – More brain than muscles – Initiation of coverage
Initiation of coverage (47 pages report) on SITI B&T,the leading Italian based supplier of machinery and systems for ceramic manufacturing listed as of the end of March 2016 on AIM Italia, the market for smaller, growing companies.
We set a €10.5 fair value per share, and we note that the presence of Remedy Shares adds protections and further lowers the risk profile of SITI B&T shares.