Value Track produce analisi finanziarie – Equity e Credit Research – con rigore metodologico e professionalità al fine di agevolare l’incontro tra società emittenti ed investitori.
I reports includono una dettagliata analisi del mercato di riferimento e dello scenario competitivo e approfondiscono i principali aspetti industriali e finanziari delle società oggetto di analisi.
Le ricerche sono pubblicate di seguito in ordine cronologico.
AIM Italia – Multipli IPO 2009/2018 – Report tematico
I multipli di IPO 2015-’18 sono pari a 10x EV/EBITDA and 22x P/E. Per le sole operazioni del 2018, l’ EV/EBITDA medio è stato pari a un più contenuto 6.5x.
I multipli di IPO sono solo marginalmente correlati alla profittabilità o ai tassi di crescita attesi. Conta maggiormente la credibilità dell’equity story e del management.
E’ solo nelle ultime IPO che è emerso un premio valutativo legato alla quotazione su MTA invece che su AIM Italia.
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Vimi Fasteners – IPO and diversification to unlock growth potential – Initiation of coverage
Vimi Fasteners is a well established player in the design and manufacturing of high engineered fastening solutions for a broad variety of industrial applications, ranging from automotive to oil & gas and aerospace. Its recent IPO should enable management to accelerate its expansion / diversification strategy, also through selective M&A, in order to: a) capture new market opportunities; b) strengthen its manufacturing competitiveness; c) reduce its exposure to the automotive industry.
We initiate coverage on Vimi Fasteners with a €4.0 fair value per share, i.e. a ca. 25% upside potential. At fair value Vimi shares would trade at 2018E multiples of 7.4x EV/EBITDA Adj., 12.0x EV/EBIT Adj. and 14.7x Adj. P/E.
DHH – On the “cloud” to look beyond the horizon – Update Report
DHH has announced the acquisition of mCloud, a Serbian cloud computing startup. We believe that the deal well fits with the already established growth strategies of DHH Group. As far as latest financials are concerned, i.e. 1H18 figures, we note that DHH is maintaining a healthy double-digit top line growth rate with an increasing profitability and a steady cash generation.
We assess a €10.30 per share fair value, i.e. 10 bps higher with respect to fair value calculated in our previous notes.
MailUp Group – Sector M&A adds speculative appeal – Flash Note
Twilio and SendGrid, US based leading players in the MarTech space, have just announced a US$10bn worth paper based merger deal. Based on announced merger terms, SendGrid has been valued 10.0x and 7.9x EV/Sales 2018E-19E respectively.
Our take from the deal is that smaller MarTech players such as MailUp offering solid geographical footprint and innovative services / products range should be all viewed as possible targets and deserve a speculative premium.
We underline that MailUp at current market price, is valued ca. 0.8x EV/Sales 2019 i.e. ten times less, and even at our €3.74 p.s. fair value would trade at 1.1x EV / Sales 2019E.
Costamp Group – Synergies to mould the future – Update report
The first half of the year has been characterized by a ca. 17% YoY top line growth, in line with full year expectations. EBIT almost doubled and Net Profit grew exponentially. The group generated a positive free cash flow that contributed to reduce the Net Debt position. We fine-tuned our estimates by: 1) keeping unchanged our top line forecasts as backlog is close to all-time high, 2) slightly revising downward the expected profitability improvement pace due to MBR integration costs and to “puzzle die” technology R&D costs, 3) taking into account a better working capital management leading to higher cash flow generation.
ESAUTOMOTION – 1H18: Export and R&D as drivers of growth – Update Report
1H18 has been characterized by close to 30% top-line growth. Net Profit was up +41.9% YoY. We feel that there could be some room to revise our 2018E-19E top line forecasts upwards while maintaining unchanged estimates on EBITDA-EBIT-Net Profit. We confirm our €4.26 fair value per share.
SG Company – Good ingredients to stand out of the crowd – Initiation of coverage
SG Company provides to more than 140 corporate clients services such as B2B events organization & management and solutions / support in terms of offline and online communication. Furthermore, the Group is also entering the live communication B2C segment and reinforcing its digital communication services offer.
In 2018E-20E, SG Company is expected to increase its Revenues at 14% CAGR and to maintain its EBIT margin stable at ca. 10%. The Company generates cash and is cash positive. We expect SG Company in the whole period to maintain its extremely high ROE.
At current market price the stock is trading at 9.0x EV/EBIT’18E and – 15.5x PE’18E respectively. Our valuation analysis leads to €3.10 fair value per share, which implies more than 25% potential upside.
MailUp Group – Sailing on waves of growth – Update Report
MailUp group 1H18 interim performance has been pushed by a solid double-digit top line growth (ca. +38% YoY) well distributed across business lines. Following the publication of interim results we confirm our positive view on company’s growth trend and we are revising upwards our 2018E-onwards top line estimates.
We set a fair value per share at €3.74, up from previous €3.45, incorporating a faster organic growth. At fair value, MailUp shares would trade at 1.1x EV / Sales 2019E and 9.6x EV / EBITDA 2019E.
Neodecortech – Stronger than raw materials headwind – Update Report
1H18 was a good semester in terms of business evolution, with top line up +7.5% YoY and EBITDA Margin at 12.2%, +120 bps YoY. Post 1H18 figures we are maintaining unchanged our financial forecasts even if we note that, as far as 2018E is concerned, we are pretty confident that the company can easily beat our current estimates.
We update our fair valuation at €5.10 per share, substantially unchanged. At fair value the stock would trade at “affordable” 6.0x EV/EBITDA – 8.7x P/E 2019E.
Triboo Group – Seeds planted. Ready to collect in 2H18 – Update Report
1H18 financials have been affected by non recurring items, namely capital gain on disposals and one off expenses to transfer to MTA stock market, finalized in June. That said, Value of Production was up +7.5% YoY and Reported EBITDA was up 25% YoY, (-25% on Adj. basis). Net Debt decreased to €3.2mn from €7.1mn.
We update our valuation on Triboo at €3.00 fair value per share, down vs. the previous €3.45, incorporating both a reduction in eCommerce peers’ multiples and a higher WACC for DCF due to higher implied Italian Equity Risk Premium.
BioDue – A brisk walk, also thanks to extracts – Update Report
1H results provide evidence that: 1) the company keeps growing, 2) margin upside is materializing, 3) capex plan is on track, and 4) small scale M&A (small deal announced in July) is a feasible, value enhancing growth path.
We leave unchanged our €6.0 Fair Value per share, coming from the average between peer analysis and DCF model and implying 10.4x EV/EBITDA and 18.1x P/E on 2018E.
MailUp Group – M&A deal to stay “ahead of the curve”
MailUp Group has just announced the acquisition of a Dutch start-up called Datatrics, an innovative “artificial intelligence” based Customer Data management Platform (CDP).
that should allow MailUp Group to stay “ahead of the curve” in the fast moving Mar-tech space.
Post synergies we expect Datatrics to boost MailUp Group’s EBITDA by ca. 22% and 51% in 2020E-21E. On P/E we expect the deal to be counterdiluitive by 2020E while on EV/EBITDA it should become counterdiluitive only by 2021E due to current very low stock market price of MailUp shares.
Esautomotion – Coupling fast growth and high profitability – Initiation of coverage
Esautomotion is a well-experienced leader in the design and production of “high end” mechatronics solutions for the automation of industrial production machines, ranging from Computerized Numerical Control systems (CNC) to Drivers, Software and Brushless motors.
In 2018E-20E, Esautomotion is expected to increase its Revenues at 20% CAGR and to maintain its already outstanding EBITDA margin higher than 30% and stellar ROIC, at ca. 60% before tax and close to 50% after tax.
At current market price the stock is trading at 6.3x EV/EBITDA’18E and – 13.6x PE’18E respectively. We believe that the superior quality of the equity story (fast growth, high profitability) justifies much higher multiples. Indeed, our valuation analysis leads to €4.26 fair value per share, which implies a ca. 30% of potential upside.
CDR ADVANCE CAPITAL – Business model profitability is proven – Update Report
After many “stop and go” phases and complex negotiations, the finalization of the aggregation deal with Borgosesia SpA is getting closer.
In 2018E-19E we expect NAV to increase at a higher than 5% CAGR17A-19E and DPS (A shares) to increase at ca. 9% CAGR17A-19E.
A shares (listed on AIM Italia MTF) are trading at very affordable multiples i.e. 6.3x P/E, 5.4% Dividend Yield and 0.60x P/NAV (Peers are trading at 0.86x P/NAV). We set an updated €1.76 fair value per share.
Costamp Group – Casting the e-mobility revolution – Initiation of coverage
Costamp Group is a worldwide leader in the engineering and production of dies / moulds for automotive components manufacturing and one of the very few players worldwide boasting a complete offer in terms of casting processes and products.
In our Base Case scenario we expect 2017PF-20E Revenues growing at ca. +12% CAGR, compared to the latest four years +16% annual pace. Externalization of low value productions and commercialization of “Puzzle-Die” (an innovative and patented technology aimed at significantly increasing aluminum dies lifetime) should drive profitability up more than proportionally, with 2017PF-20E EBITDA growing at ca. +43% CAGR.
BioDue – When supplements naturally push performance – Initiation of coverage
BioDue is a leading player in the Italian nutraceutical market that develops, manufactures and distributes food supplements, cosmetics, medical devices and herbal products. The equity story offers a combination of attractive structural factors – growing reference markets and solid history – and positive short term drivers: a major capex plan comes to end in 2018 and top line and earnings momentum are expected to accelerate.
We initiate coverage on BioDue with a €6.0 Fair Value per share which we view as fair in the light of the forecasted growth of 29% for EBITDA and 34% for adjusted earnings (2017-2020E CAGR). Results delivery in the following quarters will be key for stock re-rating.
Triboo: Exit from Friendz with 7.5x return on investment – Flash Note
Triboo has announced the successful disposal of its 20.32% stake in Friendz S.r.l. for an amount of €2.955.000, an impressive 7.5x cash return multiple in less than two years.
As a result of the transaction, we revise upward our 2018E Reported Net Profit to €4.5mn and considered €2.9mn cash in benefit in Net Financial Position.
We upgrade our fair value per share to €3.45, up €0.09 from previous €3.36.
AIM Italia Stock Market – 2017 reporting season – Thematic report
Out of the ca. 86 stocks listed as of end of April, i.e. excluding SPACs pre business combination, 71 companies have released their 2017 results within the end of April, with Aggregated Revenues up +13% YoY at €3.82bn, EBITDA +17% YoY at €443mn, Adjusted Net Profit +54% YoY at €88mn. Yet, aggregated data hide a very diversified universe and 2017 results show a clear polarization: one third of companies are still loss making and half released negative earnings growth.
Triboo: Growth potential not fully exploited yet – Update Report
We lowered our top-line forecasts given an increasing competitive scenario in the eCommerce space and revised ca. 20% downward our FY EBITDA 2018 estimates, mainly due to take up of new contracts, such as the recently signed with Aeffe, starting to impact positively only as of 2H18.
We set a fair value per share at €3.36, down from previous €4.00. Two points to take into account:
1) By trading at multiples similar to Media peers, the current price does not reflect the outstanding growth of the eCommerce division, which comes at a small risk.
2) Triboo Shangai, recently certified by Alibaba as unique Tmall partner, is opening the Chinese doors to Group’s clients online sales.
Neodecortech – Everything ok but for raw materials – Update Report
Our base case for 2018E-19E financial evolution leads to revenues up at mid single digit CAGR and industrial EBITDA margin improving at ca. 13% thanks to output capacity progressive saturation and to higher incidence of highly profitable LVT segment.
We confirm our €5.15 fair value per share, a higher than 30% upside from current market level, and we note that at current market price the stock is trading at 0.8x P/BV ’19E with a ROE at 12.4%, well above the cost of equity.
MailUp Group – A growth story with robust roots – Update Report
In 2018E-19E we expect MailUp Group to attain at double-digit growth pace and to improve its profitability, while maintaining a positive net cash position.
We expect a mounting speculative appeal on Italian stocks such as MailUp as a consequence of the widening valuation gap vs. US-UK players and we note that the US based subsidiary BEE has an ever-increasing valuation potential, as it can become the global market standard editor for email and landing page creation.
We set a fair value per share at €3.45, marginally up from previous €3.35.
AIM Italia Stock Market – Little AIM grows up – Thematic report
AIM Italia seems to have eventually entered a steady and visible path of growth with ca. 100 stocks listed and an aggregate market capitalization in excess of €6.3bn.
Liquidity as well dramatically improved in 2017, with ca. €2bn total traded turnover (vs. €310mn as of 2016) and 86% of actively traded days / listing days (vs. 62% as of 2016).
However, we hint that further effort is needed (in terms of equity research coverage, corporate access, higher free float) in order to make AIM Italia an entirely efficient marketplace.
DHH -Positively adapting to new market environment – Update Report
In 2018E-19E we expect DHH to continue its double-digit growth pace, to progressively increase its operating profitability and to maintain a sound cash generation.
All valuation criteria confirm the high discount at which DHH shares are currently trading. We confirm a €10.20 fair value per share.
DHH – Building the Internet platform of the Emerging Markets of Europe
DHH is an industrial investment company active in the European SaaS based web services / cloud computing market with a focus on areas with higher growth opportunities thanks to lower digital penetration. Revenues are small but growing fast and highly visible. EBITDA cash conversion is structurally close to 100%.
Based on current perimeter of consolidation and on current number of outstanding shares we calculate a €10.2 fair value per share compared to current €7.4 market price. This is consistent with a €9.6 fully diluted fair value that assumes that some 84k new (bonus) shares are issued for free in July 2019.
Triboo – Enabling companies to profit from digital – Initiation of coverage
Triboo Group is made of two business units both supporting Italian corporates in their effort to fully exploit the opportunities of the digital revolution. The eCommerce business unit acts as a “one-stop-shop” outsourcer with a highly scalable and low risk business model. The Media business unit offers a wide range of digital advertising-related services and successful editorial content provision.
Sum-of-the-Parts and DCF valuation lead to ca. €4.0 fair value per share, which implies a ca. 57% upside potential vs. current market price. We remind that Triboo Group recently approved the move to MTA Stock Exchange.
Neodecortech – The Italian way to décor surfaces – Initiation of coverage
With this in-depth analysis we initiate coverage on Neodecortech, a recently listed company active in the niche of decorative surfaces design and manufacturing (mostly paper but more recently also plastic) for interior design and flooring industries.
We set a €5.15 fair value on Neodecortech shares.
MailUp – Combining growth and cash generation
Growth is accelerating, cash generation remains healthy and hints from sector are positive, even if profitability is still subdued.
Updating stock valuation we get to a €3.35 fair value per share (down from the previous €3.50).
SITI B&T – Negotiating profitability for growth
Healthy ceramic machinery stance and a more aggressive commercial policy are driving a faster revenues growth coupled with slightly lower operating margins and higher net debt position.
Taking into account on one side the upward re-rating of sector multiples and on the other side the higher expected company’s net debt position leads to a €10.70 fair value (down from the previous €11.0 per share).
CDR ADVANCE CAPITAL – Investing at one, divesting at two… in three years – Initiation of coverage
CdR Advance Capital invests in “single names” non-performing credits. Alongside, the company is also rolling out a solid fee driven business.
As far as A shares (listed on AIM Italia market), we get to a €1.59 fair value which implies a ca. 70% upside potential vs. current market price.
SITI B&T – Sector Machinery – Update Report
FY2017 seems to be taken off quite well sustained by healthy demand for both Tile and Sanitaryware machineries and by the progressive ramp up of Customer Care revenues. Overall, we expect Adj. Net Profit to increase by an average 8%-9% per annum in the next three years.
We fine-tune upwards SITI B&T’s fair value at €11.0 per share on the bank of sector multiples rerating.
MailUp – Surfing the marketing technology revolution
MailUp Group ranks among the top five to ten cloud based marketing technology players in Europe with services ranging from email marketing to mobile messaging activities and from email editing tools to professional consulting services.
On multiples we get to €3.50 per share fair value while DCF, Sum-of-the-Parts and other valuation methods lead to insightful findings in the €3.09-3.86 range.
Energica M.C. – Ready to scale up
Despite its young age, Energica has already gone a long way. Almost all the R&D effort, models development, output capacity rollout and vendor financing strategy has been finalised while network distribution set up is on going and marketing activity is mounting. Everything is ready for sales to scale up in the next to come Spring season.
Our risk-adjusted valuation analysis points at a €4.1-€4.6 Fair Value vs. the current €3.0 market price.
SITI B&T – Ceramic Machinery Market Steadily Positive – Update post 1H16 results
The outlook of the Ceramic machinery sector remains positive, as confirmed by the all-time-high attendance at Tecnargilla, the most important sector exhibition in the world, and in this report we note how SITI B&T is benefitting from it with double-digit top line growth rate.
Updating the valuation assessment returns an almost unchanged €10.30 fair value per share.
Piteco – Investing for growth – Update 1H16 results
During the first part of 2016 fiscal year Piteco SpA has maintained a healthy cash generation pace, balancing organic and M&A driven business development. In this report we analyse the company’s main growth opportunities such as client base expansion, commercial partnership in Mexico, possible acquisitions in the US and in Italy.
We confirm a €4.85 fair value.
SITI B&T – Preview of 1H 2016 results
In this report we update on SITI B&T main development efforts i.e. product range development, output capacity reshaping, commercial and customer assistance international expansion. Furthermore we detail on the company’s peculiar business seasonality characterised by a second part of the fiscal year much stronger than the first one.
We confirm a €10.5 fair value per share.
Piteco – Moving fast – Initiation of coverage
With this in-depth analysis we initiate our coverage of Piteco SpA, listed on AIM Italia back on July 2015. Piteco is an Italian based leadingsoftware house that develops and distributes proprietary solutions aimed at managing corporates’ treasury & cash flow activities and workflow towards national and international banks.
We set a €4.85 fair value on Piteco shares.
SITI B&T – More brain than muscles – Initiation of coverage
Initiation of coverage (47 pages report) on SITI B&T,the leading Italian based supplier of machinery and systems for ceramic manufacturing listed as of the end of March 2016 on AIM Italia, the market for smaller, growing companies.
We set a €10.5 fair value per share, and we note that the presence of Remedy Shares adds protections and further lowers the risk profile of SITI B&T shares.