Lista Pubblicazioni

Value Track produce analisi finanziarie – Equity e Credit Research – con rigore metodologico e professionalità al fine di agevolare l’incontro tra società emittenti ed investitori.
I reports includono una dettagliata analisi del mercato di riferimento e dello scenario competitivo e approfondiscono i principali aspetti industriali e finanziari delle società oggetto di analisi.
Le ricerche sono pubblicate di seguito in ordine cronologico.
icona pdf
28-05-2018

BioDue – When supplements naturally push performance – Initiation of coverage

BioDue is a leading player in the Italian nutraceutical market that develops, manufactures and distributes food supplements, cosmetics, medical devices and herbal products. The equity story offers a combination of attractive structural factors – growing reference markets and solid history – and positive short term drivers: a major capex plan comes to end in 2018 and top line and earnings momentum are expected to accelerate.
We initiate coverage on BioDue with a €6.0 Fair Value per share which we view as fair in the light of the forecasted growth of 29% for EBITDA and 34% for adjusted earnings (2017-2020E CAGR). Results delivery in the following quarters will be key for stock re-rating.

icona pdf
21-05-2018

Triboo: Exit from Friendz with 7.5x return on investment – Flash Note

Triboo has announced the successful disposal of its 20.32% stake in Friendz S.r.l. for an amount of €2.955.000, an impressive 7.5x cash return multiple in less than two years.
As a result of the transaction, we revise upward our 2018E Reported Net Profit to €4.5mn and considered €2.9mn cash in benefit in Net Financial Position.
We upgrade our fair value per share to €3.45, up €0.09 from previous €3.36.

icona pdf
07-05-2018

AIM Italia Stock Market – 2017 reporting season – Thematic report

Out of the ca. 86 stocks listed as of end of April, i.e. excluding SPACs pre business combination, 71 companies have released their 2017 results within the end of April, with Aggregated Revenues up +13% YoY at €3.82bn, EBITDA +17% YoY at €443mn, Adjusted Net Profit +54% YoY at €88mn. Yet, aggregated data hide a very diversified universe and 2017 results show a clear polarization: one third of companies are still loss making and half released negative earnings growth.

icona pdf
26-04-2018

Triboo: Growth potential not fully exploited yet – Update Report

We lowered our top-line forecasts given an increasing competitive scenario in the eCommerce space and revised ca. 20% downward our FY EBITDA 2018 estimates, mainly due to take up of new contracts, such as the recently signed with Aeffe, starting to impact positively only as of 2H18.
We set a fair value per share at €3.36, down from previous €4.00. Two points to take into account:
1) By trading at multiples similar to Media peers, the current price does not reflect the outstanding growth of the eCommerce division, which comes at a small risk.
2) Triboo Shangai, recently certified by Alibaba as unique Tmall partner, is opening the Chinese doors to Group’s clients online sales.

icona pdf
16-04-2018

Neodecortech – Everything ok but for raw materials – Update Report

Our base case for 2018E-19E financial evolution leads to revenues up at mid single digit CAGR and industrial EBITDA margin improving at ca. 13% thanks to output capacity progressive saturation and to higher incidence of highly profitable LVT segment.
We confirm our €5.15 fair value per share, a higher than 30% upside from current market level, and we note that at current market price the stock is trading at 0.8x P/BV ’19E with a ROE at 12.4%, well above the cost of equity.

icona pdf
11-04-2018

MailUp Group – A growth story with robust roots – Update Report

In 2018E-19E we expect MailUp Group to attain at double-digit growth pace and to improve its profitability, while maintaining a positive net cash position.
We expect a mounting speculative appeal on Italian stocks such as MailUp as a consequence of the widening valuation gap vs. US-UK players and we note that the US based subsidiary BEE has an ever-increasing valuation potential, as it can become the global market standard editor for email and landing page creation.
We set a fair value per share at €3.45, marginally up from previous €3.35.

icona pdf
05-04-2018

AIM Italia Stock Market – Little AIM grows up – Thematic report

AIM Italia seems to have eventually entered a steady and visible path of growth with ca. 100 stocks listed and an aggregate market capitalization in excess of €6.3bn.
Liquidity as well dramatically improved in 2017, with ca. €2bn total traded turnover (vs. €310mn as of 2016) and 86% of actively traded days / listing days (vs. 62% as of 2016).
However, we hint that further effort is needed (in terms of equity research coverage, corporate access, higher free float) in order to make AIM Italia an entirely efficient marketplace.

icona pdf
04-04-2018

DHH -Positively adapting to new market environment – Update Report

In 2018E-19E we expect DHH to continue its double-digit growth pace, to progressively increase its operating profitability and to maintain a sound cash generation.
All valuation criteria confirm the high discount at which DHH shares are currently trading. We confirm a €10.20 fair value per share.

icona pdf
30-01-2018

DHH – Building the Internet platform of the Emerging Markets of Europe

DHH is an industrial investment company active in the European SaaS based web services / cloud computing market with a focus on areas with higher growth opportunities thanks to lower digital penetration. Revenues are small but growing fast and highly visible. EBITDA cash conversion is structurally close to 100%.
Based on current perimeter of consolidation and on current number of outstanding shares we calculate a €10.2 fair value per share compared to current €7.4 market price. This is consistent with a €9.6 fully diluted fair value that assumes that some 84k new (bonus) shares are issued for free in July 2019.

icona pdf
27-11-2017

Triboo – Enabling companies to profit from digital – Initiation of coverage

Triboo Group is made of two business units both supporting Italian corporates in their effort to fully exploit the opportunities of the digital revolution. The eCommerce business unit acts as a “one-stop-shop” outsourcer with a highly scalable and low risk business model. The Media business unit offers a wide range of digital advertising-related services and successful editorial content provision. 
Sum-of-the-Parts and DCF valuation lead to ca. €4.0 fair value per share, which implies a ca. 57% upside potential vs. current market price. We remind that Triboo Group recently approved the move to MTA Stock Exchange.

icona pdf
25-10-2017

Neodecortech – The Italian way to décor surfaces – Initiation of coverage

With this in-depth analysis we initiate coverage on Neodecortech, a recently listed company active in the niche of decorative surfaces design and manufacturing (mostly paper but more recently also plastic) for interior design and flooring industries.
We set a €5.15 fair value on Neodecortech shares.

icona pdf
09-10-2017

MailUp – Combining growth and cash generation

Growth is accelerating, cash generation remains healthy and hints from sector are positive, even if profitability is still subdued.
Updating stock valuation we get to a €3.35 fair value per share (down from the previous €3.50).

icona pdf
06-10-2017

SITI B&T – Negotiating profitability for growth

Healthy ceramic machinery stance and a more aggressive commercial policy are driving a faster revenues growth coupled with slightly lower operating margins and higher net debt position.
Taking into account on one side the upward re-rating of sector multiples and on the other side the higher expected company’s net debt position leads to a €10.70 fair value (down from the previous €11.0 per share).

icona pdf
11-09-2017

CDR ADVANCE CAPITAL – Investing at one, divesting at two… in three years – Initiation of coverage

CdR Advance Capital invests in “single names” non-performing credits. Alongside, the company is also rolling out a solid fee driven business.
As far as A shares (listed on AIM Italia market), we get to a €1.59 fair value which implies a ca. 70% upside potential vs. current market price.

icona pdf
08-05-2017

SITI B&T – Sector Machinery – Update Report

FY2017 seems to be taken off quite well sustained by healthy demand for both Tile and Sanitaryware machineries and by the progressive ramp up of Customer Care revenues. Overall, we expect Adj. Net Profit to increase by an average 8%-9% per annum in the next three years.
We fine-tune upwards SITI B&T’s fair value at €11.0 per share on the bank of sector multiples rerating.

icona pdf
04-04-2017

MailUp – Surfing the marketing technology revolution

MailUp Group ranks among the top five to ten cloud based marketing technology players in Europe with services ranging from email marketing to mobile messaging activities and from email editing tools to professional consulting services.
On multiples we get to €3.50 per share fair value while DCF, Sum-of-the-Parts and other valuation methods lead to insightful findings in the €3.09-3.86 range.

logo Siti BT
28-02-2017

Energica M.C. – Ready to scale up

Despite its young age, Energica has already gone a long way. Almost all the R&D effort, models development, output capacity rollout and vendor financing strategy has been finalised while network distribution set up is on going and marketing activity is mounting. Everything is ready for sales to scale up in the next to come Spring season.
Our risk-adjusted valuation analysis points at a €4.1-€4.6 Fair Value vs. the current €3.0 market price.

logo Siti BT
17-10-2016

SITI B&T – Ceramic Machinery Market Steadily Positive – Update post 1H16 results

The outlook of the Ceramic machinery sector remains positive, as confirmed by the all-time-high attendance at Tecnargilla, the most important sector exhibition in the world, and in this report we note how SITI B&T is benefitting from it with double-digit top line growth rate.
Updating the valuation assessment returns an almost unchanged €10.30 fair value per share.

logo Siti BT
17-10-2016

Piteco – Investing for growth – Update 1H16 results

During the first part of 2016 fiscal year Piteco SpA has maintained a healthy cash generation pace, balancing organic and M&A driven business development. In this report we analyse the company’s main growth opportunities such as client base expansion, commercial partnership in Mexico, possible acquisitions in the US and in Italy.
We confirm a €4.85 fair value.

logo Siti BT
21-09-2016

SITI B&T – Preview of 1H 2016 results

In this report we update on SITI B&T main development efforts i.e. product range development, output capacity reshaping, commercial and customer assistance international expansion. Furthermore we detail on the company’s peculiar business seasonality characterised by a second part of the fiscal year much stronger than the first one.
We confirm a €10.5 fair value per share.

logo Siti BT
07-06-2016

Piteco – Moving fast – Initiation of coverage

With this in-depth analysis we initiate our coverage of Piteco SpA, listed on AIM Italia back on July 2015. Piteco is an Italian based leadingsoftware house that develops and distributes proprietary solutions aimed at managing corporates’ treasury & cash flow activities and workflow towards national and international banks.
We set a €4.85 fair value on Piteco shares.

logo Siti BT
18-05-2016

SITI B&T – More brain than muscles – Initiation of coverage

Initiation of coverage (47 pages report) on SITI B&T,the leading Italian based supplier of machinery and systems for ceramic manufacturing listed as of the end of March 2016 on AIM Italia, the market for smaller, growing companies.
We set a €10.5 fair value per share, and we note that the presence of Remedy Shares adds protections and further lowers the risk profile of SITI B&T shares.