Equity & Credit research
Value Track produce analisi finanziarie – Equity e Credit Research – con rigore metodologico e professionalità al fine di agevolare l’incontro tra società emittenti ed investitori.
I reports includono una dettagliata analisi del mercato di riferimento e dello scenario competitivo e approfondiscono i principali aspetti industriali e finanziari delle società oggetto di analisi.
Pattern
We are fine tuning our 2024E-26E estimates to factor higher than expected capex related to the building of the new headquarter, while we largely
confirm all of our previous P&L estimates. We see VoP and EBITDA CAGR23PF-26E of ca. 9% and 10% , with EBITDA margin and Net Margin converging to 13.1% and 4.8%. Net Debt is projected to peak at €15.0mn in FY2024E (1.2x Net Debt/EBITDA), with deleveraging strengthening from 2026E and leading to €3.6mn Net Debt by the same year.
ErreDue
We fine tune ErreDue Fair Value at €13.8 p/s (down from €14.6 p/s), due to lower earnings combined with lower peers’ multiples (and despite lower ERP). At €13.80, the stock would trade at 3.0x-9.7x-21.8x EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, P/E Adj. 2025E multiples respectively, i.e., in line with sales multiples of electrolysers manufacturers and still at some discount vs. EBITDA and EPS multiples of global industrial gas suppliers.
Comal
Comal is the leading Italian EPC-M and O&M player in utility scale (>1MW) turnkey PV plants. With >2 GW of cumulative installed capacity, Comal secured a top-tier clientele and decided to expand its offerings to include value-added PV components, such as innovative and patented solar trackers and advanced shelters, becoming a one-stop-shop for solar power solutions.
TPS Group
We are fine tuning our 2024E-26E estimates to factor tempered profitability resulting from the revised revenue mix and inflationary pressures on labour costs observed in 1H24, while keeping our cash generation forecasts unchanged.
Magis
We fine-tuned estimates to take into account of increased investments in working capital (longer payment terms extended to new key clients and updated inventory policy) and Capex (acquisition of the laminator).
Porto Aviation Group
1H results are a bit lower than our FY24E forecasts. Thus, we’ve fine-tuned our FY24E-28E estimates with downward adjustments in the top line,
EBITDA-EBIT, and cash flow due to. In 2024E-28E years we now forecast:
1) VoP to get close to €12.0mn (25.6% CAGR23A-28E); 2) EBITDA and EBIT Margin expected respectively at 26.5% and 21.6% by 2028E; 3) NFP to stands substantially at break-even point by 2026E year-end.
DHH
We are fine tuning our estimates with bit lower Top Line, higher EBITDAEBIT- Net Profit margins, and improved cash generation. In 2024E-25E-26E years we now forecast: 1) VoP to get close to €60mn (18.6% CAGR23A-26E, 10% organic plus M&A); 2) EBITDA Margin always >30%; 3) €46mn cumulated EBITDA more than covering €33mn of cumulated capex and M&A cash out.
Reway Group
A few days ago, RWG has signed the acquisition of a 60% stake of Vega Engineering S.r.l., specializing in road and rail infrastructure engineering, as well as civil and industrial works.
Soges Group
Soges Group is a rapidly expanding company specialized in the high-end hotel facilities management. Its portfolio currently includes 8 properties (with one additional property announced), all located in Tuscany and operated under the “Place of Charme” brand.
Porto Aviation Group
Porto Aviation Group (“Porto”, “PAG”) is establishing itself as one of the most innovative players in the design, engineering and manufacturing of high-performance lightweight aircraft and propellers.
EdiliziAcrobatica
We see this number as consistent with our FY24E €165.8mn Top Line forecast, as: 1) In 1H24 some €90mn new Orders have been acquired; 2) In 2H24 Acrobatica Energy should start posting revenues; 3) Some orders not entirely delivered in 1H24 due to bad weather should be finalized.
Reway Group
Reway Group has released some financial KPIs: 1) Backlog end of June at sound €913mn level, with implied 1H24 Order Intake at €212mn, ca. 65% of our full year estimate; 2) 1H24 Revenues are a brilliant €117.3mn figure, ca. 58% of our full year estimate; 3) Net Debt end of June at €67.0mn, up vs. €38.4mn as of March 2024 mainly due to €27.3mn outlay for Gema acquisition and for the postponement to July of the cash in of Trade Receivables from some large accounts.
ErreDue
ErreDue has reported preliminary KPIs for 1H24, with: Revenues from Sales at ca. €7.7mn, -2% y/y due to clients
requesting the delay of two orders worth €950k to 2H; Net Cash Position at €17.3mn, vs. €16.3mn in FY23, after the distribution of ca. €1.4mn of dividends; Backlog at €17.7mn, o/w >53% related to the current FY and the remainder to FY25.
La SIA
La SIA has reported some preliminary KPIs for 1H24: 1) VoP at ca. €7.0mn, -6% y/y due to the choice to focus on more profitable orders / verticals repositioning its revenue mix to be less reliant on Telco; 2) Net Cash Position at €3.7mn, i.e., a €2.1mn decrease vs. 1Q24 (at €5.8mn), almost entirely driven from €1.5mn paid out in dividends to shareholders; 3) Current backlog at approx. €35.0mn, almost in line with 1H23 (€36.9mn).
Bertolotti
Bertolotti provides turnkey solutions and systems of material handling mainly for steel, railway and aircraft industries. With €38mn FY23 VoP and ca. €70.5mn backlog (Jan 2024), the Company, 100% controlled by the Barneschi family, completed a “just listing” on EGM-Pro in March 2024.
Casta Diva Group
CDG has reported preliminary top line figures for 1H24, with VoP at ca. €57.2mn, implying a sound 13% y/y growth. As 1Q24 VoP was up by over 6% y/y, we calculate that 2Q24 was up ca. 18% y/y. CDG also disclosed its current backlog, ca. €37.4mn. Combined with 1H24 VoP, this totals ca. €91.4mn, which is already 76% of the FY24E top-line target outlined in the latest business plan (€120.7mn).
TPS Group
The management expressed optimism in the company’s 2024 performance to date and stated that it is in line with its expectations. We remind that our forecasts call for Revenues to grow at ca. 7.2% CAGR23A-26E, with profitability remaining robust (EBITDA margin >18%). During 2024-2026, this is expected to result in ca. €30mn cumulated EBITDA and €13mn cumulated Free Cash Flow
DHH
Through its subsidiary Seeweb, DHH has just announced the release of a pioneering Serverless GPU product tailored for AI applications, that is the 2nd AI-enabling product following “Cloud Server GPU” launched in 2021.
Pattern
Pattern Group is a leading independent player in the luxury engineering segment (B2B), serving as a trusted partner, the world’s most prestigious luxury brands. With a strong track record of organic growth, diversification and M&A, PTR is now executing an ambitious plan to build new HQs and expand operations, reinvesting proceeds of 2023 disposal.
Casta Diva Group
FY23 results are in line with our estimates and with CDG business plan targets, and outline another year of strong double-digit growth, both at top line and at all profit levels, while maintaining a healthy financial leverage, despite the significant cash outflows for M&A.
Officina Stellare
Officina Stellare is globally known for its comprehensive expertise in realizing turn-key premium integrated systems and solutions for both Earth- and Space-based applications, with a strong focus on electro-optical and opto-mechanical products.
Ulisse Biomed
The deal has been completed with 13.5mn new shares issued to purchase Hyris equity in Dec 2023, 235k new shares issued to UBM shareholder (rising €455k) in Jan 2024 and with the Feb 2024 GSM appointing the new BoD, now led by Hyris founders and managers.
DHH
1Q24 KPI confirm the robustness of our positive view on DHH that boasts: 1) ideal mix of products / solutions; 2)optimal market positioning in space and time; 3) well carved growth strategy combining organic and M&A levers; 4) highly skilled Top Management; 5) highly responsible ESG commitment.
Magis
Investors, at current market price, would gain exposure to a potential 100% upside over a two-year horizon, assuming an exit multiple at 6.0x EV/EBITDA vs. current 3.3x EV/EBITDA 2024E, or approx. 32% upside if the exit multiple remains in line with current levels, ensuring sustainable double-digit yields across all metrics (Operational FCF, FCF, Earnings yield).
Reway Group
1Q24 KPIs: Backlog at historic high and financials in line with full-year estimates. Net backlog at €935mn (vs. €818mn as of December 2023); 1Q224 Revenues at €47.2mn; Net Debt at €38.4mn (vs. €30.9mn as of December 2023). 2024E-26E Estimates confirmed. Revenues up at 23.9% CAGR23-26E, to ca. €251mn in 2026E; EBITDA and EBITDA margins at 21.4% and 19.6% respectively in 2026E; Net Financial Position at break-even in 2026E.
Vimi Fasteners
Vimi recorded satisfactory FY23 results (despite a deceleration in Q4) with a significant growth in top line boosted by Filostamp acquisition.
Total Revenues +15% y/y at €61.3mn; EBITDA Adjusted reaching €8.2mn; Net Debt at €23.9mn
ErreDue
ErreDue – player in on-site gas generation & purification customized solutions, including H2 electrolysers for green energy transition – is listed on EGM since Dec 2022 and is investing most of IPO proceeds to boost its output capacity. ErreDue is a “small” public company, with 25 employees cumulatively holding 70% of the Company.
Farmacosmo
Weak macroeconomic conditions, business challenges and the strategy to avoid non profitable growth, prompted us to fine tune downwards our forecasts, with over €20mn lower Revenues in FY24E.In 2026E we now expect: Value of Production at €90.1mn, growing at 7% CAGR23A-26E; EBITDA at €2.4mn and EBITDA Margin at 2.7%; OpFCF/EBITDA at 68%, (>0 in 2025E) and €3.7mn Net Debt.
EdiliziAcrobatica
We are fine-tuning our estimates downwards (by ca. 10%) with a slower ramp-up of Acrobatica Fotovoltaico and Smart Living, outlining a non-meaningful y/y comparison in 1H24 (new BUs still in their set up phase vs. Acrobatica Energy running at full speed in 1H23 on high margins Ecobonus projects).
Gismondi 1754
FY23 was fundamental in terms of business development (acquisition of Vendorafa brand and Hyperion Lab craftmanship, plus the new franchising
agreement in the Middle East), building the foundation for future growth prospects.
Elsa Solutions
Elsa management indicates that the first two months of 2024 have been strong, backed by new client acquisitions in motion control and strong demand for Aliant. However, the EU Industrial Automation industry has weakened, but ELSA is benefitting from its product and commercial strategy and from the electrification processes acceleration.
Euronext Growth Milan
EGM FY23 earnings season outlines a weak aggregate picture, with top line up only 9% y/y (vs. historical growth rates > 30% and considering M&A). Ca. 30% of companies has reported top line down y/y, due to macroeconomic weakness, energy prices deflation, fiscal incentives cancellation.
TPS Group
We are fine tuning our 2024E-25E estimates and adding 2026E ones taking into account the widened group perimeter, a more dynamic top line evolution, and some more inflationary pressures on labour costs.
La SIA
FY23 results confirm La SIA’s key features of, i.e. top class EBITDA Margin, in the 20% region, and light asset structure entailing high returns on equity and on capital employed (ca. 20% and >35% respectively in FY23). Overall, FY23 figures underline a mid-single digit growth rate, with a changing mix (up: Civil, Mobility Infrastructures, Energy; down: Telco).
Reway Group
We are changing our 2024E-25E estimates: 1) Revenues up at 23.9% CAGR23-26E, to ca €251mn in 2025E; 2) EBITDA and EBIT margins at 21.4% and 19.6% respectively in 2025E; 3) Net Financial Position reaching break-even in 2026E, thanks to €48.6mn receivables cash-in within FY25E, as well as cumulative €39.4mn Net Cash Generated in the forecast period.
Magis
Magis SpA is active in the design, manufacturing and commercialisation of adhesive tapes and closure systems for nappies and incontinence pads, recognized for its commitment to R&D, excellence in product development / manufacturing, and customer-focused approach.
DHH
DHH stands out at the forefront of technological innovation and ethical business practices, excelling for ideal mix of products, optimal market positioning, well carved growth strategy, highly skilled top management and highly responsible ESG commitment.
Reway Group
The Reway Group has announced that its subsidiary, Gema, has secured new contracts valued at approximately €84mn in the railway sector. These contracts are associated with four framework agreements awarded by RFI, focusing on the maintenance of stations, buildings, and railway infrastructures across several Italian regions.
MeglioQuesto
FY23 KPIs worse than exp. (industrial/accounting reasons). VoP €87mn-€89mn; EBITDA Adj. €5mn-6mn; Net Debt €31mn-€33mn. ND/EBITDA 10x, above covenants of MQ 4.75% bond. Priorities: accelerate growth of Financial and Utilities clients; achieve better NWC mgmt; cut the cash out for minorities acquisition; renegotiate bond covenants. Estimates and FV U/R.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
Dismissal of BF contract as of May 2025, very bad news as Gin Mare and Diplomatico Rum are two of the top three brands in terms of contribution to CDC revenues. Elephant Gin in financial stress, will likely file for insolvency. VT Estimates and Fair value no longer valid. The likelihood of a dilutive rights issue has materially increased.
EdiliziAcrobatica
FY23 Preliminary Group Revenues +12% y/y (+7% l-f-l), after a strong comeback in 4Q23 (+32% y/y, 22% organic), supported by Acrobatica Energy and Enigma BUs, weather conditions and demand ramp-up thanks to an acceleration of Banca Sella financing. Business and corporate development continuing at unrelented pace. Estimates and Fair Value (€20.00 p/s) confirmed.
Reway Group
Readmission to RFI’s supplier portal, no basis for the suspension, allowing RWG to participate to all new tenders in the railway sector. Backlog over €800mn, after new contract >€33mn for the structural rehabilitation of four viaducts along the A25 Torano – Pescara Route. 2023PFE-25E estimates confirmed. Fair value at €6.33 (from €5.77).
Compagnia dei Caraibi
FY23 KPIs slightly below expectations. Revenues at €51.9mn-€52-9mn (+7% or +9% y/y) vs. our forecast of €53.9mn; Net Debt at €11.9mn-€12.4mn vs. €8.6mn estimated. Results confirmed the market “normalization” trend of 2023, shared across industry peers. Forecasts and fair value (€2.66 p/s fully diluted, from €3.86) fine-tuned, due to still uncertain outlook.
Elsa Solutions
Very reassuring FY23 KPIs: revenues at €19.2mn (+26% y/y, €18.9mn estimated),backlog at €11.4mn vs €10.4mn of June 2023, supporting 50% of our FY24E revenues. Aliant acquired #34 new projects in FY23 (#24 in FY22 and #26 in the first 9 months), confirming momentum is still quite strong. Our unchanged model confirms strong growth into FY25. Fair Value at €4.6 p.s (from €4.0).
Euronext Growth Milan
2023 not a bullish year, with higher interest rates and deteriorating economic conditions, leading to FTSE IT Growth Index -11%, IPO multiples at 4.4x EV/EBITDA FY1, low liquidity, trading stock multiples at the lowest level of last 4-5 years. BUT IPO activity remained strong, stock performances are turning positive, trading volumes are rebounding. 2024 is poised for a better stance.
Reway Group
Se.Gi. suspended from RFI supplier portal due to the “ANAS scandal” of the previous owners of Se.Gi (implications hardly but downward pressure on the stock). New contract worth €62mn(over the last month new orders totalling ca. €100mn; updated backlog figures to stand at more than 5yy of revenues). Estimates and Fair Value under review.
Ulisse Bio Med
UBM has signed a binding agreement to acquire 100% of Hyris, owner of an innovative integrated platform for PCR analysis, which has proved to be highly compatible with UBM’s assay. While the strategic rationale is clear, the main concern pertains to the funding of the new UBM Group, whose cash burn rate is more than doubled post deal. Management is addressing this challenge.
Casta Diva Group
Following the acquisition of Akita film and E-motion, CDG has updated its business plan. Financial targets have been, once again, revised upwards, both due to acquisitions and to higher organic growth. CDG has also confirmed its dividend policy. We are upgrading our financial forecasts as well but our stance on future organic growth is more cautious compared to company’s. We are increasing our fair-value estimate from EUR 2.0 per share to EUR 2.15.
DHH
DHH has announced some 9M23 financial figures which underline a very satisfactory double-digit increase of operating profitability and a higher Net Debt position due to M&A cash out. We have substantially maintained unchanged our ’23E-’25E P&L estimates, while taking into account recent M&A cash out in the BS. We maintain the Fair Value unchanged, as well, at €22.4.
Gismondi 1754
We are updating our estimates to factor in both the impact of acquisitions and slower development of organic revenues. We estimate that Hyperion Lab acquisition, announced on Nov14th, will be accretive. We cut FY’23E-‘25E VoP by 5% on average. Forecasted EBITDA is also down even though it will benefit from cost synergies due to the integration of Hyperion.
Casta Diva Group
We are reviewing our ‘23E-‘25E estimates to take into account: 1) the impact of recently announced Akita acquisition; 2) the higher cash out of other minor M&A deals (Genius and Overseas) and the subsequent abatement of minorities from 2023E onwards; 2) fine tuning of “old perimeter” estimates, with a bit more cautious approach related to macro uncertainties.
EdiliziAcrobatica
EDAC has reported unaudited data for 9M23 Revenues (gross of banking fees) standing at ca. €118mn, up 6% y/y. Standalone, 3Q23 came out at ca. €40mn (+7% y/y). Since 9M22 results were still impacted by invoice discounting on fiscal aids works, 9M23 figures are good signs of business resiliency and development. Estimates and fair value confirmed.
Elsa Solutions
Elsa is a B2B industrial company specialized in motion control (E-motion, 59% of FY’22 T/O) and in special purpose batteries (Aliant, 41% of FY’22 T/O). The Co. landed on EGM last October. We expect for ELSA a 24% top line CAGR’22-‘25 with Aliant growing much faster. Net net, we see a bottom line 39% CAGR2022-25 , albeit we reckon main risks are macro, execution, technology.
La SIA
La SIA provides Design & Engineering services tailored to meet the needs of its clients: large corporates in end markets such as TLC, Civil & Design, Project & Works mgmt. Its features lead to above average metrics: ca. 27% “win rate” in tenders, %EBITDA above 20%. Our ‘23E-‘25E forecasts scenario: 1)VoP up at ca. 9.4% CAGR 22A-25E; 2)Avg %EBITDA at ca. 21.4%; 3)Div. yield ca 3.5%
Farmacosmo
Sales keep growing double-digits thanks to online retail and recent M&A. Nevertheless, profitability down y/y as efficiencies are not fully integrated yet. We are d-ward revising our T/O forecast due to a lower expected ramp-up of the turnover. We are also cutting EBITDA forecasts. Full integration should require some more time before starting to generate material cost synergies.
MeglioQuesto
After the disclosure of H1’23 financials, and taking into account the deteriorating macro scenario, we are fine tuning d-wards our ‘23E-‘24E-‘25E estimates. We still assume a proper take-off of the new initiatives to be launched by MQ. At the same time, we warn that visibility on such a proper take-off is quite low. New estimate of fair value at EUR1.1 p.s.
EdiliziAcrobatica
Growth rates ahead remain double digit, but we see a different scenario for revenues in Italy and abroad. This prompts a downwards revision of 2023E-25E EBITDA forecasts by ca. 20% on average and implies a higher NWC impacting Debt. Based on revised underlying scenario, we update EDAC fair value at €20.00 p.s. (from €25.00).
Ulisse BioMed
Following H1’23 results and recent news we are updating our FY’23E-25E forecasts. We are now expecting lower revenues and higher cash burn for FY23E, but visibility should start improving soon. We believe UBM will widen its distribution contracts to another panel by end of FY23. Our forecast horizon appears fully funded.
Reway group
RWG has signed the acquisition of a 70% stake in Se.Gi. SpA, an Italian construction and maintenance company with a focus on railway infrastructures. In FY24E we estimate Se.Gi. to add to RWG figures ca. €54mn revenues and ca. €15mn EBITDA. RWG is paying EUR 63mln for the stake of Se.Gi. We appreciate the entry of RWG into the “high-margin” Railway infrastructures market.
VIMI Fasteners
Following strong H1 and 9m’23 results we update our FY forecasts and see higher operating profitability in 2023. However, our net profit forecasts are unchanged due to one-off costs for M&A in ‘23. For FY’24E and FY’25E we slightly cut operating profitability. Valuation shows an unjustified discount of VIMI compared to its peers.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
At H1’23 results publication CDC stated that current trading conditions were weaker than expected and withdrew the guidance on 2023E figures. We are therefore cutting our ’23E and ‘24E FY forecasts and fine tuning FY’25E. we are lowering our 2023E-25E Top Line forecasts by average 16%, with a more than proportional impact on EBITDA-EBIT-Net Profit.
Officina Stellare
After brilliant H1’23 results we are upgrading our FY’23E profitability forecasts; we include in our forecasts also State grants OS has received. The positive trend in commercial negotiations helps us to confirm our optimism about the company’s prospects. We expect EUR 11.6mln EBITDA in 2025 i.e., 3.6x vs. 2022. Company is trading at an unjustified 45% discount vs. foreign peers.
Euronext Growth Milan
Aggregated revenues continue to grow (8.1%) but slowing down compared to last year; 31% of EGM companies recorded y/y declining revenues. EBITDA is flat, EBIT is decreasing by 13% and Profit down as well (-33%). Debt is going up. Only 30% of companies included in our sample are generating positive FCF. Slowdown is faster than expected.
Growens
Growens has started the procedure for the sale of 100% of the share capital of Datatrics to Squeezely BV. Datatrics was losing money and turnaround has proved difficult to achieve. As far as the impact on the Group’s Net Financial Position is concerned, we estimate some €1.3mn-€1.5mn impact net of transaction costs.
Gismondi 1754
After a set of good H1’23 results we are downward revising our FY’23 estimates due to the rising uncertainty of the Hard Luxury sector. Our forecasts however are only slightly impacted, as GIS top-end positioning and strong business development should mitigate the sector outlook. We update Fair Equity Value at €7.40 p/s
TPS Group
First synergies of the integration of HB Technology will start as of 1H’24. TPS Lower %EBITDA in H1’23 is due to inflationary pressure on raw materials and labor costs, as well as the lower margins of HB compared to TPS’. Fine-tuning for our ‘23E-‘25E financial estimates leading to a bit more cautious outlook on margins and NFP. Company’s growth potential remains robust.
DHH
DHH’s 1H23 interim results are healthy, consistent with our FY estimates. Net Debt is well under control. We expect DHH to keep complementing organic growth strategies (product innovation, marketing, ARPU upselling), and M&A driven ones (acquisition of network infrastructure-based “premium” B2B ISPs). We are fine tuning our 2023E-25E estimates
MeglioQuesto
Following preliminary H1 results we are updating our 23-25E estimates. We keep unchanged our VoP estimates but we are slightly downgrading our margin estimates. Fears of a macroeconomic slowdown are affecting sector stocks. After derating in sector multiples and cut in our estimates our new fair value stands at €1.5 ps
Innovatec
H1’23 revenues are down yoy by 41% due to the decrease in sales of both divisions (ECE, EER). EBIT % margin from 8.6% to 2.3%. The Company is developing new activities such as PV systems (pipeline 400MW). The energy efficiency business is being refocused towards B2B and PA customers. Pending end of September strategy presentation we are d-grading our 23E-24E forecasts.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
CDC announced 1H23 Revenues ranging from €28.3mn to €28.8mn (+1.2% to +3.0% vs. 1H22). 2Q has faced some challenges compared to 1Q performance (+18.2%). In recent months the company bought 8 hectares of land to enter wine production business. For the time being we leave our forecasts 2023E-25E unchanged. After H1 full results we will update our estimates.
Casta Diva Group
CDG group released preliminary top line figures for 1H23, with Value of Production at ca. €52mn, implying a sound 25% y/y growth vs. the 1H22 (€41.7mn): this figure already fully included Genius Progetti. Management disclosed also current backlog, reporting a value of ca. €27mn. 1H23 figures and backlog account for 91% of the FY23E top line target. We confirm our forecasts.
Farmacosmo
Thanks to a good performance in Q2’23 (Revenues at €17.9mn), H1’23 T/O grew by 17% compared to +6% in Q1’23. Growth was driven by Online Retail while B2B revenues went down. The integration of the companies acquired in the latest Qs is on track. We maintain our 2023-25E estimates unchanged although we might slightly decrease revenue forecast after H1’23 full results.
Gismondi 1754
Gismondi published 2Q23 Operating Revenues at ca. €3.7mn (+7% y/y), implying 1H23 Top Line at €7.9mn (+12% y/y), with growth rates in line with global peers. The diversification strategy is responding very well, with European Wholesale and Qatar franchising more than offsetting less performing activities. Forecasts confirmed despite some market concerns
Growens
Q2 ’23 Annual recurring revenues (ARR) of the SAAS business stood at €30.4mn. YoY growth rate was +9.9%. BEE unit recorded the highest growth rate at group level while Datatrics registered a decline in the quarter. As for the CPaaS business, sales decreased by 10.8% since the company is focusing more on margins than on revenue growth. EMS disposal deal progressing as scheduled
Euronext Growth Milan
The positive aspect of the ’22 aggregate results of listed companies on EGM is the double-digit growth compared to ’21. The downside is the lack of cash generation, due to working capital absorption and investments. The expected growth for ’23E-’24E is also noticeable, although perhaps overestimated. Note also there are many quality companies trading at low valuations.
Casta Diva Group
We are upgrading our 23E and 24E forecasts, following a buoyant Q1’23. We now expect ’23E revenues and margins to be higher than management targets. On the day of shareholders’ approval of FY22 financial statement, management confirmed the payment of €3M dividends in the 23-25 period. CEO is continuing to buy shares. Our fair value increase from €1.60 to €1.85
TPS Group
TPS has announced the acquisition of Italian co. HB Technology, a provider of engineering services for the aerospace sector and manufacturer of small parts. We appreciate the industrial rationale of the deal. We estimate HB to add to TPS figures ca. €6-6.3mn T/O, ca. €750k EBITDA and some €3.7mn Net Debt. We are increasing our estimates and fair value
DHH
DHH has announced 1Q23 results that highlight a brilliant double-digit growth (even on organic basis) of T/O and operating profitability; Net Debt remains stable. First time co publishes Q1 figures. The company is accelerating its growth rate and operating profitability is under control. However, the business model is getting more capital intensive due to proprietary infrastructure needs
Officina Stellare
Management is demonstrating to be able to catch many market opportunities arising from the Space Economy, and recent commercial developments outline a reliable multiannual plan of constant growth at a strong pace. As of 1Q23, OS commercial pipeline totalled €156.4mn. However, the skill shortage should take a toll on OS development plan in the short-term.
Gismondi 1754
Gismondi 1754 is active in the designing, marketing and distribution under its proprietary brand of very high-end jewelry handcrafted. Growth strategy should be based on (i) expansion on international markets, via wholesale channels (ii) M&A activity for in-house craftmanship. We expect 25E VoP at €29.0mn, i.e. 24% CAGR22A-25E; EBITDA margin at 18% in 2025.
ILBE SpA
Following FY22 results we publish new 2023E-24E forecasts. Compared to our previous estimates we see higher top line, broadly unchanged EBIT, despite lower margins (avg 11.2% vs previous 12.4%), and lower cash generation (cumulated €-0.6mn vs previous €0.6mn).
TPS Group
TPS is a B2B tech enabler providing to top tier industrial groups highly specialized engineering advisory and design services. Among its competitive advantages we flag: humang capital and strong ties with clients. TPS business model operates with organic growth in the mid-single digit space, double digit margins (2025E EBIT margin at 15.9%), and very low capital requirements.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
In FY22 CDC had a 32% increase in revenues but EBITDA slightly declined. We believe that part of the miss in profitability could be due to a not surprising difficulty in handling too many projects at once. 2023E guidance is well below our previous estimates. The bulk of the difference, in our view, is due to the new terms of Brown-Forman distribution agreement.
Farmacosmo
Over FY22 and 1Q23, Farmacosmo has finalized many M&A deals aimed at building a 360° value proposition in the Health, Pharma & Beauty space and at pivoting the business model from a “products only” approach to a “products + services” one. We are revising 2023E-24E by considering: the impact of the deals and a less positive view on organic e-retailing evolution.
EdiliziAcrobatica
Over FY22-1Q23, EDAC enlarged its footprint, with 6 new branches, the set-up of operations in Monaco, >300 new net hirings and an acquisition in Dubai. We are revising EDAC estimates. VoP up by 20%-30% in 2023E-24E, thanks to the contribution of Dubai co and a different “organic” Revenues mix. EBITDA % to stay at 18%-19% vs. 10%-11% pre-pandemic.
Vimi Fasteners
We are revising our 2023E-25E estimates by taking account: i) the impact of Filostamp deal; ii) a more positive view on organic business development. For the current year we also expect an improvement in operating profitability. Value creation from Filostamp deal and peers rerating drive our Vimi fair value per share at €2.70 (from €2.26)
Reway Group
Reway Group is active since ‘90s, but has started accelerating since 2017, outperforming a highly growing reference market, boasting healthy financials (backlog over €400mn, EBITDA margin up to 18%) and only few concerns (clients concentration, raw materials volatility). At current market price RWG is trading at 4.7x EV/EBITDA, 10.0x P/E Adj. 2023E. Our FV is €4.75 p/s.
Ulisse Biomed
FY22: revenues broadly in line, slightly higher costs, Net Cash at €3.8mn. New 1Q23 distribution contracts (ELITech, Aenorasis) improve visibility, while LadyMed is ready for national roll out in FY23. Forecasts broadly confirmed and fully funded; FV revised up to €2.2 from €1.65; stock price has doubled since new contracts and trades almost in line with our updated FV.
MeglioQuesto
FY22 financials in line with preliminary and VT estimates. “Together 2023-2025” is MQSPA new industrial plan, more focused on self-lead generation with media advertising services, new touchpoints, e-commerce with HW products, installation services and AI tools. Estimates broadly confirmed, but new business mix. FV at €2.29 p/s (from €2.22 p/s).
Digital360
Final FY22 figures with no surprise: EBITDA at €9.7mn (17.1% EBITDA Margin), EBITDA PF at €14.3mn (+79% y/y), ARR at €17.1mn (+62% y/y) and number of subscriptions at 370 (+74 y/y). DIG has become the largest player of the LATAM region in only one year (ca. 24% of its 2022 PF Demand Generation Revenues outside Italy). Forecasts and FV (€6.0 p/s) confirmed.
Casta Diva Group
2025E Revenues to surpass €100mn threshold, €11.1mn EBITDA and €4.5mn Net Cash, after some €3.0mn dividends. Value Track estimates fine-tuning upwards, a bit more conservative than CDG in 2024E, forecasting €92mn Value of Production, €7.7mn EBITDA. FV revised at €1.60 p/s (>100% upside).
Growens
FY2022 Revenues in line with estimates, margins and NFP a bit below burdened by some one-off items. 2023-26 growth drivers: commitment to the 40% rule; focus on BEE development; opportunistic approach to divestments; focus on return for investors. FV confirmed at €6.80 p/s fully diluted.
DHH
Brilliant FY22 results, slightly higher than estimates: VoP up ca. +50% y/y (11% organic), Recurring Revenues at 94% , Adj. EBITDA up +24.8% y/y (partly burdened by the surge in energy costs), OpFCF conversion at ca. 80%. The strategy to acquire/revamp B2B premium ISPs generating upselling revenue synergies is definitively bearing its fruits. FV p/s at €22.3 (from €21.4).
Compagnia dei Caraibi
CDC has finalized the €1.03mn acquisition of We r-eticsoul Srl, scaleup active in both online and offline beverages distribution that in FY22 achieved €0.24mn turnover, €-0.3mn EBITDA and had €0.52mn Net Debt position. The deal is aimed at allowing CDC to leverage its brand building skills with B2B and B2C clients, both online and offline. FV p/s (fully-diluted) stable at €6.30.
Innovatec
Preliminary FY22: Revenues €289mn, +21% y/y, but lower than €295mn expected; EBITDA margin 11.1%, 270bps below FY21PF, EBIT €18.7mn, +75% y/y, in line. Net Debt at €49mn, on lower EBITDA, higher Capex and M&A-related debt. FV at 2.0 p/s (from €2.5), long-term story remains strong despite challenging outlook in the short-term (HouseVerde Superbonus business).
MeglioQuesto
FY22 Preliminary: VoP (€78mn-€81mn) in line with estimates, EBITDA (€11.5mn-€12.5mn) a bit lower, Net Debt (€30mn-€32mn) higher, affected by investments dedicated to lead generation aimed at fostering medium/long term growth and profitability potential, burdening short-term cash flow generation. FV p/s at €2.22 (down from €2.52).
Digital360
Solid FY22 preliminary figures, in line with estimates: PF Revenues €77mn (+85% y/y, LFL at +10% y/y), Pro-Forma EBITDA €14mn (LFL EBITDA €8.4mn) vs. €8mn in FY21PF, and Net Debt at €14mn vs. Net Cash at €3.1mn in FY21, after ca. €20mn M&A cash-out.Three more M&A deals in LATAM (€3mn Revenues, €0.5mn EBITDA, €1.1mn cash-out). FV p/s confirmed at €6.00.
Growens
Binding agreement for the disposal of the “Email Service Provider” company branch. Consideration stands at €70mn with €62mn gross of tax capital gain, while withdrawal right for GROW shareholders set at €4.39 per share. The transaction will result in a new Group perimeter (BEE, Agile Telecom, Datatrics) with a completely different growth-profitability profile. FV p&s increased to €6.80 (from €6.00).
DHH
M&A activity goes on and on: 45% stake in Warian Srl, Italian B2B Internet Service Enabler/Provider (€1.3mn Revenues) and 100% stake in Misterdomain Srl, Italian hosting market player (€500k revenues, very positive EBITDA margin and no debt). Estimates fine-tuning: 2024E Revenues at €38mn (24.4% CAGR), EBITDA Margin >30%, NFP >0. FV p/s at €21.4 (from €21.1).
Compagnia dei Caraibi
Preliminary FY22 Revenues at €54mn-€55mn: +27% y/y. Net Cash €300k-€600k (€6mn at the end of 9M22), affected by PTO and Elephant Gin. 2023E-24E estimates confirmed: VoP to grow at ca. 20% p.a. up to €83mn in 2024E, EBITDA to €10.5mn and Net Cash at €1.0mn despite €11.7mn cash-out for remaining 75% of Elephant Gin. FV p/s (fully-diluted) at €6.30 (unchanged).
Euronext Growth Milan
2022 YTD: one of the worst periods ever for EGM stocks. Macro uncertainties have depressed the stance of all equity markets, and EGM makes no exception. YTD EGM counts only 17 admissions finalized at 6.0x IPO EV/EBITDA FY1 (down from 7.1x in ’21) and prices and volumes are down 20% y/y. Top picks: stay selective on momentum, excessively derated or value for quality stocks.
Nice Footwear
NFT reported sound results for the FY ending in April 2022, above our estimates thanks to an outstanding 2H. Despite global adverse scenarios, in less than a year NFT has been able to deliver most of its IPO promises: Favaro and Emmegi acquisitions to strengthen “Made in Italy” footprint and luxury offer; new operational headquarter for a smoother integration; new high potential JV with Avirex. FV p/s at €14.8 (€14.6 fully-diluted) from 16.1.
Casta Diva Group
With targeted 2022E Top Line and EBITDA at €57.6mn and €4.8mn respectively, and top tier clients such as Ferrari, Allianz, Intel, Moncler etc, Casta Diva is one of the top Italian players in Live & Digital Communication, Creative Content Production. Fair value at €1.25 per share vs. €0.65 market price. Additional value could come if CDG continues its successful M&A activity.
Euronext Growth Milan
After a brilliant 2021, EGM is now showing some gloomy signs, impacted by recent geopolitical turmoil and macro uncertainties. We believe that the current scenario might hide some investment opportunities among companies that are either best-positioned to ride favorable macro trends or structurally resilient, thanks to a lower correlation vs. GDP growth.
Farmacosmo
Farmacosmo boasts a leading domestic position as H&B e-retailer, proven by €96 Average Order Value, >60% orders from recurring clients, nihil return rate. Value proposition is focused on customer centric approach, profit-oriented strategy, internally developed technology platforms, “zero warehouse” policy. Fair Equity Value at €2.91 per share (€2.69 Fully Diluted).
Euronext Growth Milan
2021 very positive year for stocks performances. #44 companies admitted to EGM (2x vs. 2020), IPO EV/EBITDA FY1 at all time high (7.7x up from 5.9x in 2020), nearly half of IPOs boasting a positive performance in excess of 40%.
Solid FY21 results, higher than pre-covid 2019FY. FY21 best performing companies are trading at ca. 8.2x-6.6x EV/EBITDA and 17.1x-14.5x P/E 2022E-23E multiples.
Euronext Growth Milan
After Russia’s military attack on Ukraine, the European Commission approved new emergency measures to mitigate the shock of high energy prices and increase domestic gas storage. This could open interesting investment opportunities among Energy Efficiency providers, Energy facilities constructors or in energy equipment manufacturers.
Innovatec
Innovatec is an Italian pure play in the cleantech industry, active in Energy Efficiency and Environmental Services & Circular Economy. INC is well positioned in an extremely attractive sector, top line is forecasted to grow at 20% CAGR (EPS at 50%) and with major short-term concern only represented by execution risk rather than geopolitics. We initiate with a €2.7 Fair Equity value p/s.
Digital360
Preliminary FY21 Revenues PF at €41.1mn (+56% y/y), EBITDA at €8.0mn (+60%), Net Debt turning positive and close to €3.0mn (-1.4mn FY20), despite intensive but accretive M&A deals (last o/w being Xona). We are fine-tuning our estimates: slightly slower top line growth, marginally heavier G&A costs base offset by positive operating leverage. Fair Value at €5.37 p/s (from €5.30).
DHH
FY21 Gross Sales up +108% y/y at €19.71mn, bang in line with our €19.49mn top-line estimate that was not taking into account the one month consolidation of the last M&A deal, i.e. the Bulgarian company Evolink that added €253k revenue to Group figures. We do not change our estimates and we confirm our Fair Equity value p/s at €24.0.
Nice Footwear
NFT reported an excellent 1H21 top line with revenues at €14.4mn. However, the business was affected by seasonality, supply chain disruption and tightening raw materials. More, NFT acquired 80% of Emmegi, a Padua-based company active in the production of women’s luxury handbags, with an acquisition price of 1.6x EV/EBITDA. We confirm a €16.0 Fair Equity value p/s.
Officina Stellare
OS has announced the signature of a new supply contract with a leading international player active in the geo-spatial analysis sector, to be delivered in 2022-23, worth approximately €8.5mn, for the provision of high-resolution LEO space telescopes for Earth Observation services. Based on the positive newsflow, we review OS fair value per share at €17.2 (up from €15.7).
ILBE Group
ILBE has completed its admission to trading on Euronext Growth Paris by direct listing to increase visibility towards international investors and entering the French Media sector. 9M21 KPIs confirm 1H trends, but Q3 suggests also a lower top line momentum (flat y/y) and a further unexpected cash absorption. Fair value per share trimmed to €5.0 from €5.3 on higher Net Debt.
Growens
As of Dec’21, Growens has released 1) ARR of the SaaS business line at €23.2mn (+16.3% y/y); 2) Gross Sales from CPaaS at €43.4mn in FY21 (+6.5%), with a strong acceleration in 4Q21 (+22.2%). Within the SaaS business division, BEE kept growing at full speed, recording the highest growth rate (+57%), with ARR at €7.3mn. Our fair valuation remains unchanged a €6.30 p/s.
MeglioQuesto
MQ has acquired a 51% stake of OM Group, €9mn revenue Italian leader in the field marketing area, by paying €5.6mn equal to ca. 6x-7x EV/EBITDA multiple, aimed at strengthening MQ competitive positioning in the “human” CX channel. We calculate the deal to be value accretive to MQ’s EPS22E-23E by ca. 13%. We update at €4.80 (from €4.60) our fair Equity Value p/s.
Somec
Somec to increase its controlling interest up to 70.9% in Fabbrica LLC to further strengthen its market coverage in North America. The transaction has been finalized at 6.6x EV/EBITDA and 18.6x P/E 2022E. We calculate the deal to be value enhancing, with a 8.2% and 3.0% positive impact on EPS and EFCF. We update our fair equity value to €41 p/s (from €40).
Nice Footwear
Nice Footwear is the Italian partner of reference for the design, production and distribution of sports and leisure footwear, with own, licensed and third parties’ collections. We expect the Group to grow fast in the next 3yrs: 18% top line CAGR, 22% EBITDA CAGR and cumulated €8.5mn deleveraging. We initiate coverage at €16.0 per share, i.e. 1.2x EV/Sales and 10.1x EV/EBITDA FY22E.
Euronext STAR Milan
STARs’ aggregate 9M21 Revenues, EBITDA, EBIT and Net Profit up by 20%, 29%, 58%, and 115% y/y. However, full recovery from Covid-19 should be finalized only in 2022E. We signal several “old economy” stocks in our top pick lists, made of “Growth At Reasonable Price”, “Pure Growth”, “Secular” and “High Quality” stocks clusters.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
CdC released excellent (unaudited) 9M21 financials KPIs: 1) Revenues at €28.7mn, up 60% y/y; 2) Net Cash Position at €8.2mn vs. Net Debt at €3.5mn as of 1H21 (IPO proceeds of €10.6mn). We revised upwards our estimates, expecting Revenues growing 25% CAGR 20A-23E, EBITDA at €7.5mn in 2023E (12.3%), Net Cash at €10.5mn by 2023E. We updated our Fair Value per Share at €5.90 (from €5.40), as result of our new estimates and peers multiples rerating over the last 2 months.
DHH
DHH acquires 60% stake in Evolink, entering promising new geographies (Bulgaria) and new fast growing market segments (provisioning of connectivity services). DHH has also announced that Errera, the startup backed by DHH, has completed its business combination with Icona Technology.We update our valuation at €24.0 p/s (from €22.5)
Ulisse Biomed
UBM is an Italian Diagnostic company active in the development of i) RT-PCR molecular diagnostic assays/reagents; ii) nano-switches based assays for therapeutic drug monitoring; and iii) antiviral aptamers for therapeutic or diagnostic purposes. We start coverage on UBM with €4.50 p/s calculated as average of peers and DCF.
DHH
3Q/9M21 Gross Sales confirm the healthy growth of DHH, with positive results recorded across all geographies the Group is currently operating. We are leaving our 2021E-23E financial estimates and €22.5 fair value p/s unchanged.
ILBE Group
Interim results confirm the limited impact of pandemic on ILBE operations, i.e. strong revenues growth (2x y/y) together with material margin dilution and steady cash absorption, despite strong earnings (net profit +25% y/y). Fair value per share unchanged at €5.30 p/s as slightly higher sector ratings and forecasts are offset by higher Net Debt.
Growens
3Q/9M21 financial data confirm the good resiliency of SaaS model, and the unchanged growth-oriented strategy put in place so far. Consolidated revenues achieved a new all-time high at €51.1mn (+6.8% y/y) with both SaaS and CPaaS component growing high single-digit.2021E-22E-23E estimates and €6.30 fair value per share confirmed.
Euronext Growth Milan
Euronext Growth Market currently counts 155 listed companies (138 as of Dec’20) for an aggregate €10bn market Cap, spread across nine different industries. All KPIs are on the healthy side: 1) ECM strongly accelerating (€600mn raised, 23 new listings); 2) FTSE Italia Growth Index very close to its all-time high; 3) Market liquidity steadily improving.
Officina Stellare
1H21 profitability back to pre-pandemic levels, VoP up ca. 26% y/y, EBITDA doubled y/y to €1.8mn. Positive newsflow impacting the investment case, driving higher 2021E estimates, 2022E-23E confirmed. We confirm our view of Officina Stellare as a zero-cost call option on the success of the “Space Economy opportunity”. We revised upwards our fair value per share at €15.7 (from €11.2).
EdiliziAcrobatica
Fiscal aids driving triple digit y/y 1H21 growth, with 2x VoP and accounting of fiscal incentives lifting reported EBITDA margin at 18.9%. We expect a 36% top line CAGR20A-23E, reaching VoP of €117mn, EBITDA of €16.3mn and Net Debt of €3.7mn in 2023E. At €20 market price, EdAc shares would be correctly discounting our “base case” for 2022E-23E.
Vimi Fasteners
1H21 figures highlight encouraging signs of business recovery from pandemic-related bottom: Sales were up +21% y/y at €22.1mn, EBITDA increased by 71% y/y, peaking at €3mn. Reassuring new flows across end-markets, higher visibility on Group strategy, and faster than peers’ recovery support stock rerating. We update our fair value at €2.50
Growens
Sales in 3Q +12.4% y/y, SaaS ones +25.5% y/y, recurring revenues +34% y/y,BEE at the biggest growth driver with Sales at €2.1mn (+107% y/y).
2021E-onwards estimates and €6.30 fair value per share confirmed.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
Compagnia dei Caraibi is a leading Italian player in the selection, marketing and distribution of best-in-class alcoholic brands, such as Gin Mare, Rum Diplomatico, Amaro Jefferson. We expect CdC to keep growing at 2-digit pace: Revenues and EBITDA to post a 33% and 49% CAGR20A-23E respectively. We start coverage with a €5.40 p/s, given by a DCF model and peers’analysis
Somec
1H21 results confirm steady newsflow: Sales up 13% y/y to €128mn, EBITDA +33% y/y to €14mn, order backlog at its all-time high (€826mn). Fair value per share unchanged at €33 p/s on broadly stable sector ratings and unchanged forecasts
DHH
1H21: Sales up 8% y/y to €9.6mn, EBITDA at €3.5mn (EBITDA Margin >36%), on track with our full-year estimate.Fair value p/s revised up at €22.5 (from €20.4), driven by the update of DCF and Peers multiples, to be compared to current €14.9 stock market price.
MeglioQuesto
1H21: €28.4mn Revenues (+71.4% y/y) and 16.1% EBITDA Margin, in line with our 1H21 and full-year expectations.2021E-23E estimates broadly unchanged, Fair value confirmed at €4.60 p/s
Digital360
1H21 interim results highlight strong business momentum and highly value accretive M&A deals. New revised estimates and peers’ rerating lead to €5.30 fair equity value (up from previous €4.00), which would imply 11.3xEV/EBITDA,14.5x EV/EBIT Adj and 20.6x P/E Adj 2022E multiples, in line with the average of selected AIM Italia tech companies
Growens
1H21 came in line with our FY21E P&L expectations, and highlight signs of growth and profitability recovery. Positive news flow could come from new corporate projects, ranging from stock market uplisting, to M&A deals in Italy. We are finetuning 2021E-’22E estimates, and revising upwards our SoP valuation to €6.30 to factor in peers’ rerating and higher fair value for BEE.
MeglioQuesto
MQ is a domestic player specialized in outsourced omnichannel CX business across several industries ranging from telco to financial services, with plenty of growth potential ahead. We expect MQ to maintain its outstanding financial profile with topline and EBITDA up at high 2-digit CAGR20-23. We start coverage with a €4.60 fair value.
Digital360
Digital360 preliminary (unaudited) 1H21 financial figures are ahead of our full year estimates, highlighting strong y/y growth performance. Fair Value revised upward at €4.00 per share (from €3.25).