Value Track produce analisi finanziarie – Equity e Credit Research – con rigore metodologico e professionalità al fine di agevolare l’incontro tra società emittenti ed investitori.
I reports includono una dettagliata analisi del mercato di riferimento e dello scenario competitivo e approfondiscono i principali aspetti industriali e finanziari delle società oggetto di analisi.
DHH’s 1H23 interim results are healthy, consistent with our FY estimates. Net Debt is well under control. We expect DHH to keep complementing organic growth strategies (product innovation, marketing, ARPU upselling), and M&A driven ones (acquisition of network infrastructure-based “premium” B2B ISPs). We are fine tuning our 2023E-25E estimates
Following preliminary H1 results we are updating our 23-25E estimates. We keep unchanged our VoP estimates but we are slightly downgrading our margin estimates. Fears of a macroeconomic slowdown are affecting sector stocks. After derating in sector multiples and cut in our estimates our new fair value stands at €1.5 ps
H1’23 revenues are down yoy by 41% due to the decrease in sales of both divisions (ECE, EER). EBIT % margin from 8.6% to 2.3%. The Company is developing new activities such as PV systems (pipeline 400MW). The energy efficiency business is being refocused towards B2B and PA customers. Pending end of September strategy presentation we are d-grading our 23E-24E forecasts.
CDC announced 1H23 Revenues ranging from €28.3mn to €28.8mn (+1.2% to +3.0% vs. 1H22). 2Q has faced some challenges compared to 1Q performance (+18.2%). In recent months the company bought 8 hectares of land to enter wine production business. For the time being we leave our forecasts 2023E-25E unchanged. After H1 full results we will update our estimates.
CDG group released preliminary top line figures for 1H23, with Value of Production at ca. €52mn, implying a sound 25% y/y growth vs. the 1H22 (€41.7mn): this figure already fully included Genius Progetti. Management disclosed also current backlog, reporting a value of ca. €27mn. 1H23 figures and backlog account for 91% of the FY23E top line target. We confirm our forecasts.
Thanks to a good performance in Q2’23 (Revenues at €17.9mn), H1’23 T/O grew by 17% compared to +6% in Q1’23. Growth was driven by Online Retail while B2B revenues went down. The integration of the companies acquired in the latest Qs is on track. We maintain our 2023-25E estimates unchanged although we might slightly decrease revenue forecast after H1’23 full results.
Gismondi published 2Q23 Operating Revenues at ca. €3.7mn (+7% y/y), implying 1H23 Top Line at €7.9mn (+12% y/y), with growth rates in line with global peers. The diversification strategy is responding very well, with European Wholesale and Qatar franchising more than offsetting less performing activities. Forecasts confirmed despite some market concerns
Q2 ’23 Annual recurring revenues (ARR) of the SAAS business stood at €30.4mn. YoY growth rate was +9.9%. BEE unit recorded the highest growth rate at group level while Datatrics registered a decline in the quarter. As for the CPaaS business, sales decreased by 10.8% since the company is focusing more on margins than on revenue growth. EMS disposal deal progressing as scheduled
The positive aspect of the ’22 aggregate results of listed companies on EGM is the double-digit growth compared to ’21. The downside is the lack of cash generation, due to working capital absorption and investments. The expected growth for ’23E-’24E is also noticeable, although perhaps overestimated. Note also there are many quality companies trading at low valuations.
We are upgrading our 23E and 24E forecasts, following a buoyant Q1’23. We now expect ’23E revenues and margins to be higher than management targets. On the day of shareholders’ approval of FY22 financial statement, management confirmed the payment of €3M dividends in the 23-25 period. CEO is continuing to buy shares. Our fair value increase from €1.60 to €1.85
TPS has announced the acquisition of Italian co. HB Technology, a provider of engineering services for the aerospace sector and manufacturer of small parts. We appreciate the industrial rationale of the deal. We estimate HB to add to TPS figures ca. €6-6.3mn T/O, ca. €750k EBITDA and some €3.7mn Net Debt. We are increasing our estimates and fair value
DHH has announced 1Q23 results that highlight a brilliant double-digit growth (even on organic basis) of T/O and operating profitability; Net Debt remains stable. First time co publishes Q1 figures. The company is accelerating its growth rate and operating profitability is under control. However, the business model is getting more capital intensive due to proprietary infrastructure needs
Management is demonstrating to be able to catch many market opportunities arising from the Space Economy, and recent commercial developments outline a reliable multiannual plan of constant growth at a strong pace. As of 1Q23, OS commercial pipeline totalled €156.4mn. However, the skill shortage should take a toll on OS development plan in the short-term.
Gismondi 1754 is active in the designing, marketing and distribution under its proprietary brand of very high-end jewelry handcrafted. Growth strategy should be based on (i) expansion on international markets, via wholesale channels (ii) M&A activity for in-house craftmanship. We expect 25E VoP at €29.0mn, i.e. 24% CAGR22A-25E; EBITDA margin at 18% in 2025.
Following FY22 results we publish new 2023E-24E forecasts. Compared to our previous estimates we see higher top line, broadly unchanged EBIT, despite lower margins (avg 11.2% vs previous 12.4%), and lower cash generation (cumulated €-0.6mn vs previous €0.6mn).
TPS is a B2B tech enabler providing to top tier industrial groups highly specialized engineering advisory and design services. Among its competitive advantages we flag: humang capital and strong ties with clients. TPS business model operates with organic growth in the mid-single digit space, double digit margins (2025E EBIT margin at 15.9%), and very low capital requirements.
In FY22 CDC had a 32% increase in revenues but EBITDA slightly declined. We believe that part of the miss in profitability could be due to a not surprising difficulty in handling too many projects at once. 2023E guidance is well below our previous estimates. The bulk of the difference, in our view, is due to the new terms of Brown-Forman distribution agreement.
Over FY22 and 1Q23, Farmacosmo has finalized many M&A deals aimed at building a 360° value proposition in the Health, Pharma & Beauty space and at pivoting the business model from a “products only” approach to a “products + services” one. We are revising 2023E-24E by considering: the impact of the deals and a less positive view on organic e-retailing evolution.
Over FY22-1Q23, EDAC enlarged its footprint, with 6 new branches, the set-up of operations in Monaco, >300 new net hirings and an acquisition in Dubai. We are revising EDAC estimates. VoP up by 20%-30% in 2023E-24E, thanks to the contribution of Dubai co and a different “organic” Revenues mix. EBITDA % to stay at 18%-19% vs. 10%-11% pre-pandemic.
We are revising our 2023E-25E estimates by taking account: i) the impact of Filostamp deal; ii) a more positive view on organic business development. For the current year we also expect an improvement in operating profitability. Value creation from Filostamp deal and peers rerating drive our Vimi fair value per share at €2.70 (from €2.26)
Reway Group is active since ‘90s, but has started accelerating since 2017, outperforming a highly growing reference market, boasting healthy financials (backlog over €400mn, EBITDA margin up to 18%) and only few concerns (clients concentration, raw materials volatility). At current market price RWG is trading at 4.7x EV/EBITDA, 10.0x P/E Adj. 2023E. Our FV is €4.75 p/s.
FY22: revenues broadly in line, slightly higher costs, Net Cash at €3.8mn. New 1Q23 distribution contracts (ELITech, Aenorasis) improve visibility, while LadyMed is ready for national roll out in FY23. Forecasts broadly confirmed and fully funded; FV revised up to €2.2 from €1.65; stock price has doubled since new contracts and trades almost in line with our updated FV.
FY22 financials in line with preliminary and VT estimates. “Together 2023-2025” is MQSPA new industrial plan, more focused on self-lead generation with media advertising services, new touchpoints, e-commerce with HW products, installation services and AI tools. Estimates broadly confirmed, but new business mix. FV at €2.29 p/s (from €2.22 p/s).
Final FY22 figures with no surprise: EBITDA at €9.7mn (17.1% EBITDA Margin), EBITDA PF at €14.3mn (+79% y/y), ARR at €17.1mn (+62% y/y) and number of subscriptions at 370 (+74 y/y). DIG has become the largest player of the LATAM region in only one year (ca. 24% of its 2022 PF Demand Generation Revenues outside Italy). Forecasts and FV (€6.0 p/s) confirmed.
2025E Revenues to surpass €100mn threshold, €11.1mn EBITDA and €4.5mn Net Cash, after some €3.0mn dividends. Value Track estimates fine-tuning upwards, a bit more conservative than CDG in 2024E, forecasting €92mn Value of Production, €7.7mn EBITDA. FV revised at €1.60 p/s (>100% upside).
FY2022 Revenues in line with estimates, margins and NFP a bit below burdened by some one-off items. 2023-26 growth drivers: commitment to the 40% rule; focus on BEE development; opportunistic approach to divestments; focus on return for investors. FV confirmed at €6.80 p/s fully diluted.
Brilliant FY22 results, slightly higher than estimates: VoP up ca. +50% y/y (11% organic), Recurring Revenues at 94% , Adj. EBITDA up +24.8% y/y (partly burdened by the surge in energy costs), OpFCF conversion at ca. 80%. The strategy to acquire/revamp B2B premium ISPs generating upselling revenue synergies is definitively bearing its fruits. FV p/s at €22.3 (from €21.4).
CDC has finalized the €1.03mn acquisition of We r-eticsoul Srl, scaleup active in both online and offline beverages distribution that in FY22 achieved €0.24mn turnover, €-0.3mn EBITDA and had €0.52mn Net Debt position. The deal is aimed at allowing CDC to leverage its brand building skills with B2B and B2C clients, both online and offline. FV p/s (fully-diluted) stable at €6.30.
Preliminary FY22: Revenues €289mn, +21% y/y, but lower than €295mn expected; EBITDA margin 11.1%, 270bps below FY21PF, EBIT €18.7mn, +75% y/y, in line. Net Debt at €49mn, on lower EBITDA, higher Capex and M&A-related debt. FV at 2.0 p/s (from €2.5), long-term story remains strong despite challenging outlook in the short-term (HouseVerde Superbonus business).
FY22 Preliminary: VoP (€78mn-€81mn) in line with estimates, EBITDA (€11.5mn-€12.5mn) a bit lower, Net Debt (€30mn-€32mn) higher, affected by investments dedicated to lead generation aimed at fostering medium/long term growth and profitability potential, burdening short-term cash flow generation. FV p/s at €2.22 (down from €2.52).
Solid FY22 preliminary figures, in line with estimates: PF Revenues €77mn (+85% y/y, LFL at +10% y/y), Pro-Forma EBITDA €14mn (LFL EBITDA €8.4mn) vs. €8mn in FY21PF, and Net Debt at €14mn vs. Net Cash at €3.1mn in FY21, after ca. €20mn M&A cash-out.Three more M&A deals in LATAM (€3mn Revenues, €0.5mn EBITDA, €1.1mn cash-out). FV p/s confirmed at €6.00.
Binding agreement for the disposal of the “Email Service Provider” company branch. Consideration stands at €70mn with €62mn gross of tax capital gain, while withdrawal right for GROW shareholders set at €4.39 per share. The transaction will result in a new Group perimeter (BEE, Agile Telecom, Datatrics) with a completely different growth-profitability profile. FV p&s increased to €6.80 (from €6.00).
M&A activity goes on and on: 45% stake in Warian Srl, Italian B2B Internet Service Enabler/Provider (€1.3mn Revenues) and 100% stake in Misterdomain Srl, Italian hosting market player (€500k revenues, very positive EBITDA margin and no debt). Estimates fine-tuning: 2024E Revenues at €38mn (24.4% CAGR), EBITDA Margin >30%, NFP >0. FV p/s at €21.4 (from €21.1).
Preliminary FY22 Revenues at €54mn-€55mn: +27% y/y. Net Cash €300k-€600k (€6mn at the end of 9M22), affected by PTO and Elephant Gin. 2023E-24E estimates confirmed: VoP to grow at ca. 20% p.a. up to €83mn in 2024E, EBITDA to €10.5mn and Net Cash at €1.0mn despite €11.7mn cash-out for remaining 75% of Elephant Gin. FV p/s (fully-diluted) at €6.30 (unchanged).
2022 YTD: one of the worst periods ever for EGM stocks. Macro uncertainties have depressed the stance of all equity markets, and EGM makes no exception. YTD EGM counts only 17 admissions finalized at 6.0x IPO EV/EBITDA FY1 (down from 7.1x in ’21) and prices and volumes are down 20% y/y. Top picks: stay selective on momentum, excessively derated or value for quality stocks.
NFT reported sound results for the FY ending in April 2022, above our estimates thanks to an outstanding 2H. Despite global adverse scenarios, in less than a year NFT has been able to deliver most of its IPO promises: Favaro and Emmegi acquisitions to strengthen “Made in Italy” footprint and luxury offer; new operational headquarter for a smoother integration; new high potential JV with Avirex. FV p/s at €14.8 (€14.6 fully-diluted) from 16.1.
With targeted 2022E Top Line and EBITDA at €57.6mn and €4.8mn respectively, and top tier clients such as Ferrari, Allianz, Intel, Moncler etc, Casta Diva is one of the top Italian players in Live & Digital Communication, Creative Content Production. Fair value at €1.25 per share vs. €0.65 market price. Additional value could come if CDG continues its successful M&A activity.
After a brilliant 2021, EGM is now showing some gloomy signs, impacted by recent geopolitical turmoil and macro uncertainties. We believe that the current scenario might hide some investment opportunities among companies that are either best-positioned to ride favorable macro trends or structurally resilient, thanks to a lower correlation vs. GDP growth.
Farmacosmo boasts a leading domestic position as H&B e-retailer, proven by €96 Average Order Value, >60% orders from recurring clients, nihil return rate. Value proposition is focused on customer centric approach, profit-oriented strategy, internally developed technology platforms, “zero warehouse” policy. Fair Equity Value at €2.91 per share (€2.69 Fully Diluted).
2021 very positive year for stocks performances. #44 companies admitted to EGM (2x vs. 2020), IPO EV/EBITDA FY1 at all time high (7.7x up from 5.9x in 2020), nearly half of IPOs boasting a positive performance in excess of 40%.
Solid FY21 results, higher than pre-covid 2019FY. FY21 best performing companies are trading at ca. 8.2x-6.6x EV/EBITDA and 17.1x-14.5x P/E 2022E-23E multiples.
After Russia’s military attack on Ukraine, the European Commission approved new emergency measures to mitigate the shock of high energy prices and increase domestic gas storage. This could open interesting investment opportunities among Energy Efficiency providers, Energy facilities constructors or in energy equipment manufacturers.
Innovatec is an Italian pure play in the cleantech industry, active in Energy Efficiency and Environmental Services & Circular Economy. INC is well positioned in an extremely attractive sector, top line is forecasted to grow at 20% CAGR (EPS at 50%) and with major short-term concern only represented by execution risk rather than geopolitics. We initiate with a €2.7 Fair Equity value p/s.
Preliminary FY21 Revenues PF at €41.1mn (+56% y/y), EBITDA at €8.0mn (+60%), Net Debt turning positive and close to €3.0mn (-1.4mn FY20), despite intensive but accretive M&A deals (last o/w being Xona). We are fine-tuning our estimates: slightly slower top line growth, marginally heavier G&A costs base offset by positive operating leverage. Fair Value at €5.37 p/s (from €5.30).
FY21 Gross Sales up +108% y/y at €19.71mn, bang in line with our €19.49mn top-line estimate that was not taking into account the one month consolidation of the last M&A deal, i.e. the Bulgarian company Evolink that added €253k revenue to Group figures. We do not change our estimates and we confirm our Fair Equity value p/s at €24.0.
NFT reported an excellent 1H21 top line with revenues at €14.4mn. However, the business was affected by seasonality, supply chain disruption and tightening raw materials. More, NFT acquired 80% of Emmegi, a Padua-based company active in the production of women’s luxury handbags, with an acquisition price of 1.6x EV/EBITDA. We confirm a €16.0 Fair Equity value p/s.
OS has announced the signature of a new supply contract with a leading international player active in the geo-spatial analysis sector, to be delivered in 2022-23, worth approximately €8.5mn, for the provision of high-resolution LEO space telescopes for Earth Observation services. Based on the positive newsflow, we review OS fair value per share at €17.2 (up from €15.7).
ILBE has completed its admission to trading on Euronext Growth Paris by direct listing to increase visibility towards international investors and entering the French Media sector. 9M21 KPIs confirm 1H trends, but Q3 suggests also a lower top line momentum (flat y/y) and a further unexpected cash absorption. Fair value per share trimmed to €5.0 from €5.3 on higher Net Debt.
As of Dec’21, Growens has released 1) ARR of the SaaS business line at €23.2mn (+16.3% y/y); 2) Gross Sales from CPaaS at €43.4mn in FY21 (+6.5%), with a strong acceleration in 4Q21 (+22.2%). Within the SaaS business division, BEE kept growing at full speed, recording the highest growth rate (+57%), with ARR at €7.3mn. Our fair valuation remains unchanged a €6.30 p/s.
MQ has acquired a 51% stake of OM Group, €9mn revenue Italian leader in the field marketing area, by paying €5.6mn equal to ca. 6x-7x EV/EBITDA multiple, aimed at strengthening MQ competitive positioning in the “human” CX channel. We calculate the deal to be value accretive to MQ’s EPS22E-23E by ca. 13%. We update at €4.80 (from €4.60) our fair Equity Value p/s.
Somec to increase its controlling interest up to 70.9% in Fabbrica LLC to further strengthen its market coverage in North America. The transaction has been finalized at 6.6x EV/EBITDA and 18.6x P/E 2022E. We calculate the deal to be value enhancing, with a 8.2% and 3.0% positive impact on EPS and EFCF. We update our fair equity value to €41 p/s (from €40).
Nice Footwear is the Italian partner of reference for the design, production and distribution of sports and leisure footwear, with own, licensed and third parties’ collections. We expect the Group to grow fast in the next 3yrs: 18% top line CAGR, 22% EBITDA CAGR and cumulated €8.5mn deleveraging. We initiate coverage at €16.0 per share, i.e. 1.2x EV/Sales and 10.1x EV/EBITDA FY22E.
STARs’ aggregate 9M21 Revenues, EBITDA, EBIT and Net Profit up by 20%, 29%, 58%, and 115% y/y. However, full recovery from Covid-19 should be finalized only in 2022E. We signal several “old economy” stocks in our top pick lists, made of “Growth At Reasonable Price”, “Pure Growth”, “Secular” and “High Quality” stocks clusters.
CdC released excellent (unaudited) 9M21 financials KPIs: 1) Revenues at €28.7mn, up 60% y/y; 2) Net Cash Position at €8.2mn vs. Net Debt at €3.5mn as of 1H21 (IPO proceeds of €10.6mn). We revised upwards our estimates, expecting Revenues growing 25% CAGR 20A-23E, EBITDA at €7.5mn in 2023E (12.3%), Net Cash at €10.5mn by 2023E. We updated our Fair Value per Share at €5.90 (from €5.40), as result of our new estimates and peers multiples rerating over the last 2 months.
DHH acquires 60% stake in Evolink, entering promising new geographies (Bulgaria) and new fast growing market segments (provisioning of connectivity services). DHH has also announced that Errera, the startup backed by DHH, has completed its business combination with Icona Technology.We update our valuation at €24.0 p/s (from €22.5)
UBM is an Italian Diagnostic company active in the development of i) RT-PCR molecular diagnostic assays/reagents; ii) nano-switches based assays for therapeutic drug monitoring; and iii) antiviral aptamers for therapeutic or diagnostic purposes. We start coverage on UBM with €4.50 p/s calculated as average of peers and DCF.
3Q/9M21 Gross Sales confirm the healthy growth of DHH, with positive results recorded across all geographies the Group is currently operating. We are leaving our 2021E-23E financial estimates and €22.5 fair value p/s unchanged.
Interim results confirm the limited impact of pandemic on ILBE operations, i.e. strong revenues growth (2x y/y) together with material margin dilution and steady cash absorption, despite strong earnings (net profit +25% y/y). Fair value per share unchanged at €5.30 p/s as slightly higher sector ratings and forecasts are offset by higher Net Debt.
3Q/9M21 financial data confirm the good resiliency of SaaS model, and the unchanged growth-oriented strategy put in place so far. Consolidated revenues achieved a new all-time high at €51.1mn (+6.8% y/y) with both SaaS and CPaaS component growing high single-digit.2021E-22E-23E estimates and €6.30 fair value per share confirmed.
Euronext Growth Market currently counts 155 listed companies (138 as of Dec’20) for an aggregate €10bn market Cap, spread across nine different industries. All KPIs are on the healthy side: 1) ECM strongly accelerating (€600mn raised, 23 new listings); 2) FTSE Italia Growth Index very close to its all-time high; 3) Market liquidity steadily improving.
1H21 profitability back to pre-pandemic levels, VoP up ca. 26% y/y, EBITDA doubled y/y to €1.8mn. Positive newsflow impacting the investment case, driving higher 2021E estimates, 2022E-23E confirmed. We confirm our view of Officina Stellare as a zero-cost call option on the success of the “Space Economy opportunity”. We revised upwards our fair value per share at €15.7 (from €11.2).
Fiscal aids driving triple digit y/y 1H21 growth, with 2x VoP and accounting of fiscal incentives lifting reported EBITDA margin at 18.9%. We expect a 36% top line CAGR20A-23E, reaching VoP of €117mn, EBITDA of €16.3mn and Net Debt of €3.7mn in 2023E. At €20 market price, EdAc shares would be correctly discounting our “base case” for 2022E-23E.
1H21 figures highlight encouraging signs of business recovery from pandemic-related bottom: Sales were up +21% y/y at €22.1mn, EBITDA increased by 71% y/y, peaking at €3mn. Reassuring new flows across end-markets, higher visibility on Group strategy, and faster than peers’ recovery support stock rerating. We update our fair value at €2.50
Sales in 3Q +12.4% y/y, SaaS ones +25.5% y/y, recurring revenues +34% y/y,BEE at the biggest growth driver with Sales at €2.1mn (+107% y/y).
2021E-onwards estimates and €6.30 fair value per share confirmed.
Compagnia dei Caraibi is a leading Italian player in the selection, marketing and distribution of best-in-class alcoholic brands, such as Gin Mare, Rum Diplomatico, Amaro Jefferson. We expect CdC to keep growing at 2-digit pace: Revenues and EBITDA to post a 33% and 49% CAGR20A-23E respectively. We start coverage with a €5.40 p/s, given by a DCF model and peers’analysis
1H21 results confirm steady newsflow: Sales up 13% y/y to €128mn, EBITDA +33% y/y to €14mn, order backlog at its all-time high (€826mn). Fair value per share unchanged at €33 p/s on broadly stable sector ratings and unchanged forecasts
1H21: Sales up 8% y/y to €9.6mn, EBITDA at €3.5mn (EBITDA Margin >36%), on track with our full-year estimate.Fair value p/s revised up at €22.5 (from €20.4), driven by the update of DCF and Peers multiples, to be compared to current €14.9 stock market price.
1H21: €28.4mn Revenues (+71.4% y/y) and 16.1% EBITDA Margin, in line with our 1H21 and full-year expectations.2021E-23E estimates broadly unchanged, Fair value confirmed at €4.60 p/s
1H21 interim results highlight strong business momentum and highly value accretive M&A deals. New revised estimates and peers’ rerating lead to €5.30 fair equity value (up from previous €4.00), which would imply 11.3xEV/EBITDA,14.5x EV/EBIT Adj and 20.6x P/E Adj 2022E multiples, in line with the average of selected AIM Italia tech companies
1H21 came in line with our FY21E P&L expectations, and highlight signs of growth and profitability recovery. Positive news flow could come from new corporate projects, ranging from stock market uplisting, to M&A deals in Italy. We are finetuning 2021E-’22E estimates, and revising upwards our SoP valuation to €6.30 to factor in peers’ rerating and higher fair value for BEE.
MQ is a domestic player specialized in outsourced omnichannel CX business across several industries ranging from telco to financial services, with plenty of growth potential ahead. We expect MQ to maintain its outstanding financial profile with topline and EBITDA up at high 2-digit CAGR20-23. We start coverage with a €4.60 fair value.
Digital360 preliminary (unaudited) 1H21 financial figures are ahead of our full year estimates, highlighting strong y/y growth performance. Fair Value revised upward at €4.00 per share (from €3.25).