Equity & Credit research
Value Track SIM publishes Equity and Credit Research prepared with accuracy and competence in order to facilitate the relationship between issuers and investors.
All reports include a detailed analysis of the reference market and the competitive landscape and investigate the key business and financial aspects of the company under scrutiny.
Yakkyo
9M26: Revenues and Orders up 68% and 102% YoY
Today, YKY released some 9M26 operating data, with:
Revenues of €21.8mn, up 68% YoY (vs €12.9mn in 9M25);
3Q26 Revenues at €10.2mn (~+176% YoY vs ~€3.7mn in 3Q25), nearly matching the whole 1H26 (€11.6mn);
Dropshipping orders at ~1.16mn, up 102% YoY (vs ~576k in 9M25), of which ~606k in Q3 alone (our est., vs ~218k in 3Q25);
Revenues per order broadly stable YoY in Q3 at ~€17 (our est.), pointing to volume-driven rather than mix-driven growth.
Euronext Growth Milan
TOP-LINE GROWING DOUBLE-DIGIT BUT NET PROFIT IS 1 FLAT YoY AND NET DEBT HIGHER;
1H26 TOP LINE UP ~18% YoY, FY26 CONSENSUS ESTIMATE TO BE REVISED UP;
1H26 EBIT AND NET PROFIT FLAT YoY, FY26 CONSENSUS ESTIMATE TO BE REVISED DOWN;
MACRO HEADWINDS: GEOPOLITICAL SHOCKS, ENERGY PRICES, INFLATION, “HIGHER-FOR-LONGER” INTEREST RATES, BOND MARKET VOLATILITY;
TOP LINE GROWTH ACROSS MOST SECTORS, BUT EBIT IMPROVEMENT CONCENTRATED IN UTILITIES, TECHNOLOGY, CONSUMER CYCLICALS AND INDUSTRIALS;
AVERAGE TOP LINE UP FROM €27.6MN TO €31.9MN, BUT ONLY 9 COMPANIES ABOVE €100MN TOP LINE AND 9 WITH EBIT ABOVE €10MN;
~80% OF THE SAMPLE GENERATING POSITIVE EBITDA, BUT ONLY 5 COMPANIES GENERATING MORE 7 THAN €5MN FCF ADJ*
Gismondi 1754
Following July 1H KPIs, full set of interim results are out and confirms not only that momentum in hard luxury/jewel segment remained positive but also that despite the impact of a lower contribution from the Retail and Special Sales segments (with much higher gross margins) and of some extraordinary costs, EBITDA margin and FCF have been preserved. GIS reported 1H VoP up 16% y/y to €6.7mn, flattish EBITDA at €0.7mn (margin down to 10% vs 12% of 1H25) and €4mn NFD vs €4.5mn as of Dec 2025.
Results are broadly in line with expectations. 1H26 delivered a good set of results with solid progress in both sales and profitability despite persistent raw material inflation and still-cautious demand in some end markets. Value of Production came in at €42.6mn in 1H26, up 5.9% y/y, while EBITDA rose 29.1% to €5.5mn, with margin at 12.9% (+230bps y/y), led by Adhesive Tapes (+11.2%) and partly offset by softer Closure Systems (Body Care, -3.4%). Net cash declined to €5.6mn from €7.5mn at FY25 year-end, mainly due to working-capital absorption.
TPS Group
TPS delivered a good set of 1H26 results, in line with our expectations:
i) Value of Production at €27.8mn (+8.5% y/y, c.50% of our previous FY26E), as higher activity in A&D and cable transportation more than offset the persistent weakness in Automotive; ii) EBITDA at €4.8mn (+4.7% y/y, c.48% of our previous FY26E), with margin down 63bps to 17.4% (18.0% in 1H25) as labour costs rose 11.6% y/y on new hires and
investments in the TPS Training Academy; iii) Group Net Profit at €2.1mn (+4.4% y/y, c.43% of our previous FY26E), which was impacted by €0.3mn of extraordinary costs not related to the company’s core business; iv) Cash generation remained positive, with OpFCF b.t. at €3.6mn (c.75% of EBITDA, c.54% of our previous FY26E) after €0.9mn of capex, mostly R&D (c.€0.7mn), bringing the Net Cash to €18.8mn (€18.4mn at FY25) after €0.9mn of dividends.
Yakkyo
On 29th September 2026, Yakkyo (YKY.MI / YKY IM) reported 1H26 results, with Value of Production at €11.8mn, up 25% YoY from €9.5mn in 1H25. EBITDA came in at €711k (+6% YoY, vs €671k), while Net Profit rose 66% YoY to €346k (vs €209k), helped by a ~€200k positive swing in Net Financial Items. Adj. Net Cash stood at €1.1mn (vs €1.4mn at FY25-end), reflecting a ~€550k NWC absorption, due to longer payment terms granted to key clients.
INTRED
Our Fair Value moves to €13.1 p/s (from €13.5), as a result of: 1) Upgrade of the core business fair value to €12.1 p/s (from €11.5), driven by slightly improved estimates and higher peer multiples; 2) Removal of the Data Center Project from the valuation
DHH
DHH delivered solid Top Line growth in 1H26, while profitability reflects the current investment and integration phase. GPU infrastructure is scaling rapidly but still carries lower margins, the acquired perimeter remains margin-dilutive at this stage and the Group continues to invest in AI, commercial capabilities and corporate functions. Cash generation, however, remained strong.
Valuation. Our Fair Value on DHH moves to €32.3 p/s
Pattern
1H26 confirms margin recovery, albeit over a longer time horizon. Sales revenues reached €57.4mn (+7.3% y/y) and EBITDA more than doubled to €3.8mn, with margin at 6.4% of VoP (from 2.7% in 1H25).
2026 actions focused on platform, positioning and margins. PTR continued to strengthen and simplify its corporate structure through the buy-out of Camer’s residual stake in S.M.T., the buy-back of a 1.08% minority stake in Idee Partners and the approval of the Dyloan Bond Factory and U.V.M. mergers. Estimates and Fair Value revised down. While the recovery is visible, luxury demand remains weak and visibility poor, particularly in Knitwear. We lower our FY26E-28E estimates by an average 3% at top line and 21% for EBITDA, with higher NFP projections as margin normalization is taking longer than expected. Based on our revised forecasts, we lower our Fair Value to €4.30
Euronext Star Milan
The Value Track post-1H26 earnings report highlights a challenging macroeconomic and market backdrop for the Italian STAR segment:
• Stagnant Organic Growth;
• Downward Revisions of 2026 consensus estimates;
• Market Performance: The STAR Index is marginally down YTD and ranks as the worst-performing Italian market segment;
• Market Valuation: STAR companies multiples are substantially aligned with the broader market.
Seco
We broadly confirm our FY26E estimates, with the confirmed ~€60mn 3Q26 guidance supporting our expected 2H26E recovery, though we take a more cautious view on profitability. We raise our Fair Value to €4.63 p/s (from €3.85 p/s), based on our SOTP methodology, mainly reflecting the roll-forward from FY26E to FY27E and the earnings contribution from the NEURA Robotics partnership. SECO would trade at 12.0x FY27E Adj. EV/EBITDA, still below the 18.8x peer median.
Energy Atlas – Winners and Losers in the “Age of Electricity”
The geopolitical tensions that are accelerating the transformation of the Energy Sector. Among the energy vectors, Electricity is the
fastest-growing one, low-carbon technologies are capturing an increasing share of incremental demand, while grids, flexibility and
critical supply chains are emerging as the key physical constraints of the transition. We provide our reading of the current industry
outlook, identifying the strongest business models and the Italian Stocks poised to be among the winners in this new Era.
Energy Atlas – The “New” Energy Trilemma
Geopolitical tensions, accelerating electrification and increasingly visible physical bottlenecks are reshaping the global Energy Sector.
In our new thematic report, “Energy Atlas”, we assess the structural trends driving the sector, the business models best positioned to benefit and the Italian listed companies that could emerge as winners.
Intred
Intred (ITD.MI / ITD IM) reported 1H26 Net Sales of €29.3mn (+5.5% YoY), driven by core Fiber Optic services (€17.4mn, +7.8% YoY) and solid growth across all customer segments, led by Public Entities (+29.8% YoY) and Wholesale (+10.5% YoY). The quality of revenues remained high, with recurring-fee services accounting for 92.0% of total turnover (~€27.0mn) and churn rate remaining exceptionally low at 4.6%.
Farmacosmo
COSMO posted a strong sequential recovery in 2Q26, with top-line increasing +19% QoQ to €9.9mn (vs €8.4mn in 1Q26) on double-digit growth across all proprietary portals (Farmacosmo +19%, Pharmasi +19%, Profumeriaweb +18%) and on ContactU (+13%). 1H26 revenues came in at €18.4mn (-10% YoY vs €20.4mn l-f-l in 1H25PF).
DHH
DHH (DHH.MI / DHH IM) has completed the acquisition of Tessellis Group’s B2B ICT operations (Perimeter B.1), representing another step in its disciplined bolt-on acquisition strategy. The transaction was completed for a fixed consideration of €4.2mn, fully funded through existing cash resources, implying an attractive entry valuation of around 0.3x FY25 EV/Sales.
ETI
ETI is a specialized infrastructure contractor serving the energy and water markets, with a strong execution track record in complex pipeline and plant works. The Company combines exposure to a major capex cycle—driven by ageing networks, H2-readiness, security-of-supply investments and water-infrastructure renewal—with distinctive technical qualifications and a highly skilled in-house workforce. Against this backdrop, ETI has doubled its top line since 2023 and tripled it since 2020. Its €34.2mn backlog, equal to 1.8x FY25 Value of Production, provides high revenue visibility through 2028.
Stock Market
– IPO activity has been accelerating in the recent decades
– Market entry/exit is physiological, but delistings are increasing
– Stocks initially listed on EGM boast the highest average annual return at 12.9%, even if a consistent 40%-60% split between positive and negative returns holds across all market segments since IPO.
– Stock picking adds significant value: For instance, on the EGM market, the average annual return since IPO rises to 44.6% when excluding the worst-performing 50% of stocks (vs. 17.7% on the MTA Main market).
– 30 AIM/EGM stocks translisted to MTA (23 still listed) with an average 198% total return since IPO. Of the 114 delisted AIM/EGM stocks, 61 exited via PTO, averaging a 67.8% total return.
– The best stock market performances of recent decades belong to industrial Mid-Caps (e.g., Autostrade TO-MI, Cembre, FOPE, Recordati, Reply, Rosetti Marino, SOL) — not to Banks, Insurance, or Utilities.
Officina Stellare
Officina Stellare (OS) announced an agreement to acquire 100% of Mavel S.r.l. from MEH22 S.r.l., in a transaction stated to be of non-material value.
Industrial wise, we view the Mavel acquisition positively. It broadens OS’s electrification and power-systems capabilities, directly reinforcing the Group’s post-GATG strategy of building an integrated, vertically-scaled Aero-Space & Defense platform via disciplined bolt-on M&A.
Euronext Growth Milan
Value Track’s EGM Top Picks is now available.
The report presents our semi-annual selection of the highest-conviction investment ideas across the Euronext Growth Milan market for the coming six months.
Against a backdrop of widening performance dispersion and increasing divergence in earnings momentum across the EGM universe, we have identified 14 companies that, in our view, offer the most attractive combination of growth visibility, valuation upside, and near-term catalysts.
SECO
We revise our estimates upwards, reflecting the newly-issued 3Q26E guidance and the confirmed effectiveness of already-agreed price increases in offsetting higher memory costs. Particularly, Net Sales are raised to just below €220mn in FY26E (€218.8mn) and to €244.7mn in FY27E, GPM is raised to 54% from FY26E onwards, and Adj. EBITDA is raised to €47.1mn in FY26E and €52.8mn in FY27E. Adj. Net Debt is left unchanged at -€44.0mn in FY26E and -€27.5mn in FY27E.
Yakkyo
Yakkyo (YKY.MI / YKY IM) released preliminary revenues for 1H26, reporting sales of €11.6mn, up 26% YoY from €9.2mn in 1H25. Growth continues to be driven by the dropshipping business, with order volumes reaching around 559k in the period, up 56% YoY from 358k in 1H25. Management attributed the acceleration primarily to the consolidation of the integration with 1688, the world’s largest wholesale marketplace, which is said to be generating tangible commercial results and supporting the company’s growth objectives.
Più Medical
Più Medical has announced the closing of the acquisition of Milan-based Farmacia Formaggia, its first acquisition since the November 2025 IPO. The pharmacy in FY2025 generated about €7.7mn revenues and €1.2mn EBITDA (15% OIC base EBITDA margin).
The deal implies a total estimated cash out slightly below €13mn (roughly 1.675x OIC-based P/Sales multiple), with payment in tranches.
Officina Stellare
Following the business combination with GATG, finalized in June 2026, Officina Stellare has evolved into the Italian reference listed industrial hub for advanced dual-use technologies in Aero-Space & Defense, operating across five strategic business lines — Space, Aviation, Defense Systems, Maritime and Cybersecurity. This vertical integration positions the Group as a mission-critical supplier and strategic EU partner serving leading space agencies, governments, research institutions and industrial corporates.
Helyx Industries
We are publishing our Re-Initiation of Coverage on Helyx Industries, an Italian molecular diagnostics group developing tests and technologies used to identify DNA/RNA targets in biological samples. Its solutions are used by laboratories, hospitals, industrial customers and public-health programmes, from infection testing and food safety to newborn genetic screening. The turning point is Mytho, the new NGS division, which has already enabled Helyx to secure a meaningful newborn screening contract in Puglia and opens up further regional replication opportunities. FY25 marked both a revenue inflection and a cost-base reset, with Sales up 152% YoY to €1.9mn, Mytho becoming the largest division, and EBITDA loss narrowing to €1.4mn from €3.0mn.
Giocamondo Study
GMS’s 1H26 results (Oct–Mar, structurally irrelevant given >90% of revenues in 2H) confirm the seasonal pattern: i) Value of Production at €2.4mn (+2% YoY), ii) EBITDA at–€1.1mn, and iii) Net Cash at €7.1mn (~1/3 of market cap). The real news is elsewhere.
FY26E will be a year of contraction: the geopolitical crisis (US/Israel–Iran conflict) hit during the critical Feb–May booking window, freezing summer volumes. As a result,GMS expects Top Line broadly flat YoY at above €26mn on a l-f-l basis and around €29mn on a pro-forma basis
Farmacosmo
Key highlights include: i) VoP at €56.3mn, -12% YoY, with the decline of the farmacosmo.it portal partially offset by the strong growth of BauCosmesi, (disposed of on 29 Dec 2025), Physical Pharmacies and ContactU; ii) Reported EBITDA at -€45k; iii) Net Debt at €2.2mn, from €3.9mn as of FY24.
INTRED
Intred has announced a voluntary partial tender offer on up to 320k own shares, equal to 2.0% of share capital and roughly 6.8% of the company’s free float, at a price of €10.10 p/s and for a maximum consideration of €3.23mn.
Più Medical
FY25 pro-forma figures came in line with our expectations, providing the first meaningful read on Più Medical’s IPO perimeter and confirming the strong profitability of the underlying pharmacy assets, while reported consolidated figures reflect only one quarter of operations.
– Value of Production stood at €26.6mn (+1.8% y/y, +0.3% vs. FY25E);
– Adj. EBITDA came in at €3.5mn (-2.7% y/y, -2.1% vs. FY25E), with
margin at 13.3%;
– Net Cash was also consistent with expectations, at €4.9mn
(+€14.4mn vs. FY24PF, +€0.1mn vs. FY25E).
DHH
DHH (DHH.MI / DHH IM) delivered 1Q26 results with: i) Top Line at €11.0mn (+14% YoY, ~92% recurring); ii) EBITDA at €3.3mn (~30% margin), temporarily impacted by ~€250k of non-recurring costs; and iii) Net Cash at €1.5mn (vs. €1.3mn at FY25), on €3.8mn operating cash flow and 114% cash conversion
Haiki+
Y25 results (the first ones post Haiki+ spin-off & listing) were a touch above our expectations, with y/y growth mostly driven by M&A, while organic growth came from stronger utilization of H. Mines’ landfills and from H. Cobat. Assuming Ecobat contribution over the full year (instead of 2H only), pro-forma figures were: €314mn VoP and €48mn EBITDA, with €109mn net debt.
Reway Group
Renaissance Partners has signed binding agreements to acquire an aggregate 83.4% stake in Reway Group at a base price of €10.31/share, to be followed by a mandatory tender offer on the remaining free float and a subsequent delisting from EGM. On the announced terms, the transaction implies an equity value for 100% of Reway of about €400mn. Completion remains subject, among other things, to antitrust and golden power clearance by 30 September 2026.
Pattern
Pattern has released its 1Q26 KPIs, which confirm the recovery trend already visible in 2H25 and appear fully supportive of our FY26 estimates.
The key figures include:
Revenues at €27.6mn, up 19.3% YoY, with growth across all divisions.
EBITDA at €2.1mn, compared with almost breakeven in 1Q25, with margin improving to 7.8%, already close to our FY26E EBITDA margin assumption of 8.0%;
Net Debt at €25.7mn vs. €19.8mn at December 2025
Seco
SECO (IOT.MI / IOT IM) reported 1Q26 results confirming a resilient trajectory, with revenues growing in line with company guidance, a healthy gross margin despite a tougher cost backdrop (higher memory purchasing prices), and record-high order intake in February and March. On the balance-sheet side, Adj. Net Debt expanded QoQ, driven by a strategic inventory build-up aimed at securing customer production requirements for the entire FY26.
Più Medical
Più Medical has announced the signing of a binding agreement to buy 100% of Milan-based Farmacia Formaggia, its first acquisition since the November 2025 IPO. The pharmacy, generated about €7.7mn in FY2025 revenues, with OIC-based EBITDA margin that we hint to be above 10%. The deal should imply a total estimated cash out below €13mn, with payment in tranches, and is expected to be finalized by July 2026.
INTRED
Intred (ITD.MI / ITD IM, listed on Euronext Growth Milan) reported Q1-26 Sales of €14.2mn, up 2.0% YoY vs. €13.9mn in Q1-25. More importantly, core revenues excluding Bandi Scuola were up 6.8% YoY, confirming solid underlying organic growth despite the expected normalization of one-off school tender revenues. The revenue mix continues to improve, with recurring-fee services accounting for 93.8% of total, while the integration of Connecting Italia is now substantially completed following the disposal of low-margin / non-strategic activities.
Soges Group
FY25 Financials – Soges Group FY25 results were broadly in line with estimate on revenues, while earnings and cash generation were softer than expected. Sales rose 58.3% y/y to €26.4mn, while EBITDA stood at €1.7mn, with a 6.2% margin broadly stable year on year. The main drag came from the late openings of Melià Venezia Lido and Hotel Malaspina, which diluted reported profitability by ~€1.0mn at EBITDA level. Net Debt closed at €13.3mn, down from €14.3mn in FY24, supported by the capital increase and a positive NWC contribution.
Yakkyo
Yakkyo (YKY.MI / YKY IM) announced the signing of a strategic partnership with Olidata for the BeYou line, under which Yakkyo will act as exclusive full-service industrial partner for the supply of notebooks, tablets and accessories under the BeYou brand. The products will be distributed through O.factory (i.e., Olidata Group’s B2C commercial vehicle), with production already underway for an initial lot carrying an estimated public value of around €700k.
Porto Aviation Group
FY25 delivery timing does not change our investment case. We continue to assume 4-Seats production from FY27E, with order intake potentially starting in 3Q/4Q26E. Meanwhile, the Nevada branch / hangar remains on the roadmap, while delays in Serbia are prompting the company to assess an interim facility in Italy. By FY28E, we expect: (i) VoP of ~€11.9mn, (ii) EBITDA/EBIT Margins of 25.3%/20.4%, and (iii) Net Cash of €3.0mn, with further upside if a ~€1m Patent Box benefit under discussion is secured. Our estimates do not take into account yet new possible defense-related or institutional applications business, but we remind the recent US Navy order, which hints at a potential dual-use positioning of PAG platform.
Elsa Solutions
FY25 was better than expected for ELSA Solutions, despite still weak industrial demand. Softer volumes and limited customer visibility continued to weigh on both business lines, but lower raw material cost incidence and disciplined cost control supported margins, while tighter working capital management drove a sharp improvement in net debt. Aliant also strengthened its medium-term positioning, with 44 new projects acquired during the year, above expectations, although management remains cautious on the start of 2026.
Euronext Growth Milan
FY25 delivered a fourth consecutive year of Top Line expansion (+11% YoY), with the aggregate reaching €8.0bn. Profitability showed signs of recovery: EBITDA +11% YoY (margin stable at 13.8%), EBIT +10%, and Adj. Net Profit +9% YoY.
Free Cash Flow generation, however, was still negative, so Net Debt Adj. (excl. capital increases) rose by €458mn YoY to €1.3bn, with Net Debt/EBITDA at 1.2x Adj.
Versus consensus, results fell short across the board — Top Line -2%, EBIT -10%, Adj .Net Profit -11%, and Net Debt +€113mn vs. estimates.
Overall, mixed macro backdrop — geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, and weak industrial demand — continued to weigh in several sectors.
Gismondi 1754
Profitability also exceeded forecasts in 2H25, with EBITDA turning positive at €610k, thanks to the benefits of cost control measures and to a richer channel mix. Net Debt came also below expectations (€4.5mn vs €5.7mn in Dec 24), thanks to positive EBITDA and leaner NWC. GIS management is delivering on the main fronts: cost-efficiency, refocus toward higher-margin direct channels and relaunch of the U.S. wholesale business. The only negative note remains the absence of orders from Far East and Middle East distributors, which we expected but which is now likely to persist, given the current geopolitical picture.
Reway Group
Reway Group delivered a solid FY25, confirming the strength and durability of its market opportunity. Volumes remained strong, with VoP up nearly 20% YoY, supported mainly by organic growth and the full-year contribution from Vega. Profitability was softer than the top line would suggest, as two underperforming contracts weighed on margins, while cash conversion was held back by working capital absorption. Still, backlog remained >€1bn, preserving strong visibility and confirming healthy commercial momentum.
INTRED
Forecasts for FY26E–FY28E are revised to take into account a delayed, (and more capital-intensive) data center rollout. Indeed, authorization delays push peak capex into FY27E (~€32mn total), deferring cash generation inflection to FY28E–FY29E.
We now forecast VoP to grow to €67.1mn by FY28E (>7% CAGR on organic basis), EBITDA Margin expanding to 48.7% (EBITDA FY28E at €32.4mn, and Net Debt improving to €39.6mn as investment peaks subside.
TPS Group
Our updated 2026E-28E forecasts are as follows: 1) VoP growing at 6.0% CAGR; 2) EBITDA margins to remain close to 18% in the whole period; 3) EBITDA in absolute value growing by ca. 6% per annum, up to €11mn in 2028E; 4) Average Free Cash Flow per annum at €3.1mn driving 2028E Net Cash Position at ca. €27.8mn, i.e. some 50% of current stock market capitalization.
ErreDue
VoP at €21.9mn, up 15% YoY (vs. €19.1mn in FY24, +10% vs est.), supported by growth across all business lines: generator sales rose to €12.5mn (+25.3% YoY), after-sales services to €4.3mn (+20.9% YoY) and generator rentals to €2.6mn (+8.7% YoY) – with one third of revenues from recurring business;
EBITDA at €5.7mn (+12% YoY, +15% vs est.), with EBITDA Margin at ~26% (-64bps YoY), impacted by a less favourable mix towards lower-margin energy-transition generators, higher WIP/inventories to support backlog execution, and higher labour costs;
Net Cash at €14.7mn (vs. €14.6mn in Jun-25, €17.3mn at Dec-24), after €1.0mn dividend distribution and €7.3mn capex, o/w ~80% related to Gigafactory construction outlays;
Order backlog at €36mn, with 65% scheduled for delivery in FY26 (~€23.5mn) and the remaining 35% in FY27E.
Magis
VoP at €77.6mn (-8.9% y/y), driven by softer pricing and volumes amid intensified EU competition from Asian suppliers;
EBITDA at €8.6mn (-43.5% y/y), margin 11.1% (-680bps y/y), primarily reflecting (i) inflation on key raw materials; and (ii) largely fixed Opex that proved hard to compress;
Net Cash at €7.5mn (€14.7mn FY24 year-end), with the swing driven by the ~€5mn dividend paid and ~€5mn NWC absorption, reflecting a tightening on the payables side (shorter supplier terms / DPO compression).
Yakkyo
Profit and Adjusted Net Cash coming in above forecasts. Some numbers:
i) VoP at €20.0mn (+49% YoY),
ii) EBITDA at €1.9mn, implying 9.4% EBITDA Margin on VoP (vs 9.0% in FY24);
iii) EBIT at nearly €1.5mn, more than 2x YoY;
iv) Net Profit at €820k, up 65% YoY and 27% above est.;
v) Adj. Net Cash at €1.4mn (including €670k from cash-on-hands like financial assets), vs €535k in FY24 and above our €1.3mn forecast, supported by an OpFCF b.t. / EBITDA conversion >70%.
Strategic Developments Support Growth and Market Visibility
Pattern
FY25 figures look consistent with our expectations. VoP at €117.4mn and EBITDA margin at 5% are both in line with our estimates, confirming the back-end loaded profile of the year after a weak start. Notably, 4Q cash generation was a bit stronger than we had assumed, as reflected in the net debt improvement vs. September. As such, Net Debt landed at €19.8mn, vs. €20.5mn expected.
Helyx Industries
Helyx Industries the newly rebranded name of former Ulisse Biomed, has approved its FY25 results. Below we outline our key highlights and actions following the release.
Results Beat Estimates. FY25 results provide early evidence of Helyx’s shift toward an NGS-led business model. Over the past 12–18 months, the company has reshaped its profile through a new brand, a new divisional structure and new contracts. Value of production reached €2.2mn (+79% YoY; +30% vs. our estimates), EBITDA loss narrowed to €1.2mn from €3.0mn in FY24, and net cash stood at €0.2mn versus our €0.4mn estimate. Mytho contributed €1.1mn of revenues in its first year, already emerging as the group’s main growth driver.
DHH
DHH FY25 results are solid, with P&L in line with our estimates, while Net Cash is stronger than expected, supported by ABB proceeds. Some numbers: i) VoP at €41.8mn (+13% YoY, recurring revenue accounting for 91% of total), driven by ca. 6–7% organic growth and a similar contribution from Teknonet, which we estimate added €2.5mn over 9 months of consolidation; ii) EBITDA at €13.8mn (+15% YoY), with EBITDA margin up some 70bps YoY at 33.0% of VoP (or 34.2% of Revenue from Sales), despite the dilutive €600k contribution from Teknonet (our estimate); iii) Net Profit at €4.5mn (+24% YoY); iv) Net Cash at €1.3mn, supported by solid cash generation and €7.3mn ABB capital increase (net of transaction costs), partially offset by cash-out related to Teknonet acquisition and full Evolink buyout.
SECO
Following FY25 results, we revise our forecasts with Net Sales cut by ca. 3%, while Adj. EBITDA, Adj. Net Profit and Adj. Net Debt remain broadly unchanged. That said, the medium-term investment case remains intact. By FY27E, we continue to forecast: i) Net Sales of €241.1mn, ii) Adj. EBITDA of €55.2mn (equivalent to a margin just below 23%), and iii) Adj. Net Debt declining to €24.5mn (0.44x).We fine tune our FV to €3.70 p/s from €3.85 p/s, while leaving the investment case unchanged. In our view, FY25 results confirm that SECO has reached an inflection point, with improving fundamentals still not fully reflected in valuation. Continued delivery on growth and margin targets should progressively support a milestone-based rerating path, with upside potential toward ca. €4.45 p/s by late FY26E as visibility on profitability milestones improves.
Casta Diva Group
Casta Diva Group CDG.MI / CDG IM) CDG FY25 top-line performance was strong, with preliminary revenues reaching €134.9mn (+10.7% y/y, all organic), outperforming both the market consensus (+2%) and our latest projections (+9%), while essentially aligning with the €136.4mn target set in the business plan.
Yakkyo
Yakkyo (YKY.MI / YKY IM) is a technology-enabled, asset-light platform connecting China-based sourcing with global e-commerce merchants. Through its proprietary tech stack (“Yakkyofy”), it integrates procurement, fulfilment and logistics into a single end-to-end workflow, enabling merchants to scale internationally without holding inventory or managing cross-border operational complexity. Since 13 Feb-26 the Company has migrated from Euronext Growth Milan PRO to the EGM segment, enhancing visibility and market access
Elsa Solutions
We rebase FY25E on stronger KPIs, upgrading EBITDA and resetting net debt to €2.6mn (vs €4.0mn prior). For FY26-27E, despite limited visibility, we lift average EBITDA by +18% on stronger order intake momentum, with net debt €0.7–0.8mn better over the horizon and NFD improving to €2.3mn by Dec-27E.
Più Medical
Più Medical is a buy, fix and scale consolidation platform focused on the Italian retail pharmacy market, established in 2025 and currently operating 16 pharmacies with ~€27m of revenues in 2025E. In the past two months, the Company raised ~€18m in gross proceeds, consisting of ~€13mn from its IPO on Euronext Growth Milan and an additional €5mn PIPE investment completed shortly after listing.
Giocamondo Study
1) Release of FY25 results (FY ending 30 September), that were fully in line with expectations, with: (i) Sales at €26.1mn (+12.1% YoY l-f-l), (ii) EBITDA at €2.3mn (+9.1% YoY l-f-l, around 9.0% margin), (ii) OpFCF b.t. ~100% of EBITDA, driving Net Cash to €7.5mn, (iv) Dividend per share at €0.06 (3.5% dividend yield; payout ratio >50%; ex-date 9 Feb 2026);
2) Internationalization: Jo Study US is now operational in New York while Giocamondo Study España is set to start commercial activity in 1Q26;
3) Award (see yesterday Press Release) of an 18-month public-sector framework tender, ranking first in international language mini-stays and second in Italian school trips, confirming its strong positioning in educational tourism.
Pattern
PTR recently announced the buyout of Camer’s 10% minority stake in SMT for an aggregate consideration of €7.85m, structured as (i) a min. €5.35m cash-funded repurchase of 6.82% of SMT shares by SMT itself, creating treasury shares at subsidiary level, and (ii) the contribution of the remaining 3.18% into PTR via a max €2.5m reserved capital increase settled in shares.
Officina Stellare
Officina Stellare (OS.MI / OS IM) announced two new contract awards totaling €14.5mn, strengthening momentum in EO optics and Quantum-Secure Satcom ahead of the GATG combination. Leonardo (€9.2mn, ~3 years): supply of high-resolution optical assemblies for LEO EO telescopes (incl. engineering/industrialization). First flight model close to delivery under PLATiNO3; a new framework agreement supports potential follow-ons.Thales Alenia Space / ThinkQuantum (€5.3mn, 22 months): systems for satellite quantum communications within ESA SAGA (ARTES / EuroQCI). Split €4.8mn TQ / €0.5mn OS S.p.A., phasing ~55% (2025-26) / 45% (2026-27); scope includes QKD for ultra-secure links. We see these as high-quality orders. We confirm our estimates and €23.00 p/s fair value at this stage.
DHH
On 19th December, DHH successfully completed a capital increase via an accelerated bookbuilding reserved to institutional investors.The whole transaction involved 354,916 shares, including 324,916 newly issued shares following the partial exercise of the discretionary increase option to cover over-allocations (ca. 82% of total shares placed), raising ca. €8.2mn at a price of €23.0 p/s (ca. €7.5mn of primary capital), equivalent to a premium of around 11% versus the 30-day VWAP prior to the ABB. The placement saw the participation as anchor investors of Alkemia SGR and NextStage AM
Reway Group
Reway Group has reported its 9M KPIs, which are fully supportive of our estimates and confirm strong revenue growth and leverage under control.
We confirm our estimates and Fair Value at €10.20/share. With the stock currently trading at c. €10.65/share, we estimate that aligning fair value to market price would require approximately €3mn of incremental EBITDA, equivalent to €10–12mn of additional annual revenues at 25–30% contract margin.
Euronext Growth Milan
Value Track’s EGM Top Picks, the semi-annual report is now online! We update our highest-conviction ideas on the Euronext Growth Milan market for the coming six months.
We have identified a group of ca. 20 companies that, in our view, offer the most attractive combination of growth visibility, valuation upside, and near-term catalysts.
In the report you will find:
– Market trends and valuation signals for the whole EGM market;
– Our updated Top Picks list – the names we expect to outperform over the next semester;
– Key catalysts driving each investment case (earnings revisions, M&A optionality, sector tailwinds, re-rating potential).
Ulisse Biomed
A couple of positive developments emerged for UBM.
The Company secured €802k of fresh equity through two placements completed in early and late November at an average issue price of €0.84/share, materially strengthening short-term funding visibility and leaving room for additional drawdowns from the GCF facility before year-end.
UBM announced a new €758k NGS order from a leading international screening provider, with ~€300k expected to be recognized in 2H25.
DHH
. Key takeaways included:
• Continued focus on sustainable organic growth and margin discipline;
• An active M&A pipeline across existing and new EU markets, with a focus on MSP-type targets offering tangible synergy potential through cost optimization and margin uplift;
• Forthcoming disclosure on the AI segment contribution, following the strong momentum in GPU-driven services since end-1Q25.
SECO
SECO posted a strong 3Q25, validating tangible operating momentum and clear margin recovery. Sales grew +9% y/y (est. +11% at CER) to €48.0mn, the fifth consecutive quarter of sequential improvement in y/y growth and confirming a sustained recovery in order flow, despite a softer contribution from Clea (+5% y/y in 3Q25 vs. +14% in 2Q25). Profitability further strengthened, with GPM at 54.7% (+380bps y/y), supported by a richer sales mix and sourcing efficiencies. Adj. EBITDA doubled y/y to €10.7mn (22.2% margin), benefiting from volume-driven operating leverage and Opex savings (-€2.1mn y/y). Excluding €3mn of extraordinary Capex related to production capacity expansion, Adj. Net Debt would have improved by €2.1mn vs. 2Q25 (€50.3mn).
Officina Stellare
Back as of October 28th , Officina Stellare entered into a 100% sharebased business combination with Global Aerospace Technologies Group S.p.A. (“GATG”), an Investindustrial-backed developer of mission-critical electronic and electromechanical systems for the avionics, space, defense, and naval sectors. The deal (closing by June 2026) entails the issue of 11.3mn OS shares (~1.7 new for each existing
share, fully diluted) and €63mn pre-closing capital injection into GATG.
Ulisse Biomed
1H results showed a good pickup in revenues from sales (+42.6% y/y), driven by the Platform division, delivering a >50% y/y growth, we estimate. VoP was affected by the delayed recognition of few key grants now seen in 2H, but thanks to the 24% cut of operating costs, EBITDA loss was cut from €1.4mn of 1H24 to €0.9mn. Net cash shrunk by €1.1mn to €59k in 1H, mostly due to the negative operating margins
Gismondi 1754
Gismondi 1754’s 9M25 revenues (€7.3mn, –25% y/y) came in below expectations, reflecting continued weakness in wholesale (–34% y/y) only partly offset by stronger retail performance (+21% y/y). In 1H25, EBITDA turned positive at €674k (vs. –€238k in 1H24) thanks to tighter cost control and a richer channel mix, while Net Debt remained stable at €5.8mn (€5.7mn at FY24).
Reway Group
VoP at €134.7mn (+16.0% YoY), fully organic, reflecting steady execution across road & motorway rehabilitation (€95.1mn), rail maintenance (€34.5mn), engineering design (€3.0mn), ancillary services (€2.1mn). By subsidiary: Gema 58%, MGA 40%, Vega 2%; EBITDA at €26.2mn (+29.5% YoY), with 19.5% Margin (+204bps YoY), supported by a more favorable mix and operating leverage; Net Debt at €65.7mn (vs €67.0mn at FY24-end), with OpFCF b.t. close to ~35%, but partly absorbed by a €8.6mn increase in NWC and €1.8mn capex. Notably, backlog reached ~€1.157bn as of 1H25
Elsa Solutions
New estimates: We trim FY25E top line, due to weak 1H results and backlog, but we leave almost unchanged margins and bottom line, as well as Net Debt, and now expect a much weaker FY26E (EBITDA cut by 25%), while we maintain a positive M/T view, supported by the rising number of projects awarded. We now see CAGR25-27E of 12% for top line and 38% for EBITDA, with Net Debt down from €4mn of Dec 25E to €3.1mn of Dec 27E.
Fair Value at €2.5/sh. (previous €2.70)
Soges Group
Estimates cut on timing and fixed-cost drag: FY25E trimmed on delayed openings/closures and costs not yet covered by revenues; we now see Sales €27.4m, EBITDA €1.9m, NFP €11.3m, with higher capex partly offset by the Cortefreda disposal in 2H. Mid-term outlook remains constructive but execution-dependent: we see ~14% sales CAGR (’24PF-’28E), EBITDA margin >12% and FCF >€2mn by 2028E.
Fair value at €3.1/share (from €4.1)
Farmacosmo
Farmacosmo’s 1H25 financial results resemble the strong decrease of B2B activities (€2.9mn, -64% y/y while B2C revenues stood at €24.9mn, +1% y/y) not immediately accompanied by a corresponding reduction in costs, thus leading to an operating and net loss and to an increase in Net Debt. Key 1H25 figures are: Value of Production at €28.3mn, -15% y/y; EBITDA at €-0.8mn vs. €0.3mn in 1H24; Adj. EBITDA at ca. €-0.2mn, vs. €0.6mn in 1H24; Net Debt at €5.6mn, up from €3.9mn as of 2024YE.
We note that the decrease of B2B and farmacosmo.it portal (-7% y/y) was partially offset by the strong growth of BauCosmesi (more than doubling 1H24 revenues at €2.7mn), Physical pharmacies (€1.1mn sales, +3% y/y), and ContactU (€0.39mn, +37% y/y).
Haiki+
HIK’s 1H25 results exceeded our growth and profitability expectations, mainly driven by stronger utilization of Haiki Mines’ landfill operations. The Group reported a VoP of €130.6mn, up 30% y/y (19% organic, excluding Treee, Raeeman, Ultralog), and an EBITDA of €24.1mn, up 59% y/y with a margin expansion of ~330bps to 18.4%. Conversely, Adj Net Debt came in higher than anticipated at €99.4mn (vs. €62.1 FY24PF), as we likely underestimated the impact of consolidation differences (Green LuxCo, Ecosavona, Treee, Raeeman) and the Innovatec spin-off on the Group’s actual vs. pro-forma balance sheet.
Porto Aviation Group
VoP reached €3.1mn (+68% YoY) with 7 aircraft delivered (vs. 3 in 1H24), supported by sustained demand in the US market;
EBITDA stood at €420k (13.6% Margin), turning positive from -€430k in 1H24. Though, comparison is affected by postponed 1H24 deliveries and by €250–300k of 4-Seats costs now capitalized;
Net Cash at €1.1mn, roughly stable vs. FY24, driven by ~€2.0mn cash-on-hand, 35k treasury shares, and ~€113k dividends paid.
TPS Group
Top Line (-3.7% y/y) suffering from the crisis of the Automotive industry, only partially offset by A&D. The shift of some orders to 2H has also impacted negatively;
Operating Profitability supported by costs efficiencies (EBITDA margin from 17.3% to 18%, EBITDA at €4.6mn, flat y/y ), allowing Net Profit not to suffer too much ( -7.7% y/y at €2.0mn, mainly due to higher D&A charges and to some non-recurring costs);
Cash generation robust despite an R&D expenses increase (ca. €700k). With no M&A, TPS maintains minimal Capex requirements (<5% of VoP), driving Op.FCFb.t. at €4.0mn, (87% of EBITDA).
Pattern
FY25 is confirmed as a challenging year, characterized by weak demand, ongoing destocking, and margin pressure, although early signs of improvement are emerging ahead of the SS2026. In this context, management presented the 2028 targets: on a standalone basis, Revenues of €125–140mn, low double-digit EBITDA margin, and NFP turning cash-positive. With M&A under evaluation, management sees a further 12–20% Revenue uplift, mid double-digit EBITDA margin, and NFP neutral
Euronext Growth Milan
1H25 delivered another period of Top Line expansion (+11% YoY), albeit concentrated among a limited number of outperformers. Profitability was sluggish: EBITDA +3% YoY, EBIT -2%, and Net Profit -19%, with the EBITDA margin down 95bps to 11.8%. Net Debt Adj. (excl. capital increases) rose by €548mn YoY to €1.8bn, confirming ongoing cash absorption. Versus consensus, results fell short across the board — EBITDA -13%, EBIT -24%, Net Profit -43%, and Net Debt +€512mn vs. consensus. Persistent macro headwinds, including higher-for-longer rates, FX and energy volatility, and a weak industrial cycle, continued to pressure margins and FCF generation.
Casta Diva Group
CDG’s 1H25 results came in slightly below our organic top-line expectations (VoP €59.4mn, +2% y/y, despite a broader perimeter from the December acquisitions of Artificio Italiano and First Class) and below our reported profitability forecasts (EBITDA Margin 6.8% vs. 8.0% exp.). By contrast, adjusted figures (Adj. EBITDA Margin 9.4%) and leverage (Net Debt €9.9mn vs. €9.5mn at FY24) were broadly in line with our FY projections.
Magis
Management disclosed a new guidance of €75-80mn Sales and €8.3-11mn EBITDA (midpoint) for 2025-26E, i.e. a step-down vs. prior estimates partly reflecting the delay of a >€3mn p.a. body-care contract. Accordingly, we trim FY25-27E forecasts by 6% for VoP and 23% for EBITDA on average, with a negative 30% impact on EPS (now estimated at €0.77/share vs previous €1.13).
ErreDue
We revise RDUE’s Fair Equity Value to €12.0 p/s (>60% upside, from €13.8 p/s in our end-March update), relying on the avg. of a Relative Valuation (peer multiples applied to a SOTP model separating the two BUs, with traditional peers steady and electrolysers ones re-rated) and a lower DCF outcome following the downward revision of estimates. At FV, the stock would trade at 3-6x-2.5x EV/Sales, 12.4x-7.8x EV/EBITDA and 38.6x-17.8x P/E Adj. on FY25E-26E.
Bertolotti
Bertolotti Group designs, produces and sells customized turnkey equipment and systems for handling heavy materials and rolling stocks and recently entered the rail vehicles segment. Its order driven activity is split into three BUs – Industries (manufacturing processes, mostly Steel), Rail (warehouses, rolling stock maintenance, vehicles), Ai-Works (Automation & Robotics), with solid M/T outlooks, as both heavy and rail industries seek increasingly safe and sustainable industrial processes and intra-logistics and EU railway and defence sector has sizeable investments ahead.
INTRED
Intred’s story is one of transformation. Born as a reseller, the Company anticipated the structurally deflationary path of the Italian TLC market and pivoted into an infrastructure-based model. Over the past decade, more than €180mn have been invested in proprietary fiber expansion, Infratel school tenders, and selective M&A, turning Intred into Lombardy’s reference FTTH operator.
DHH
In recent months, DHH has executed three strategic moves: (i) the launch in March of a fully subscribed 2025–28 Warrant Programme, providing long-term capital flexibility; (ii) the acquisition in April of 60% of Teknonet, expanding the subscription-based ICT offering; (iii) the completion in July of the buyout of Evolink AD, securing full ownership of two proprietary data centers and a pan-EU backbone.
SECO
SECO is a global tech group delivering AIoT solutions via advanced edge systems and its proprietary Clea platform. Backed by strong R&D and targeted M&A, it ranks among the top 5 in embedded edge computing.
Reway Group
Reway Group reported solid 1H25 KPIs, confirming strong commercialmomentum, revenue growth, and leverage under control.
i) Backlog hit a new record at €1,157mn (vs €1,044mn as of Dec 2024), driven by €245mn new orders and €132mn works executed in 1H25. The backlog covers ~5 years of production and supports strong visibility ahead;
ii) VoP reached €134.8mn (+16% y/y vs €116.2mn 1H24)
iii) Net Debt flattish at €67.6mn (vs €67.0mn as of Dec 2024), suggesting effective working capital management despite increased activity.
Magis
At current market levels, MGS trades at 5.1x–4.3x EV/EBITDA 2025E–26E and offers a ~7% Free Cash Flow yield, still reflecting a ~10% discount to peers, despite the recent earnings reset. Factoring in 5.818m shares outstanding (post warrant expiration) and no remaining dilutive instruments, we revise our fair value to €16.0/share (from €19.0).
Giocamondo Study
Giocamondo Study S.p.A. (“GMS”) stands out as one of the most fast-scaling players in the Italian EduTech and Educational Travel space, specializing in the design, implementation, and delivery of bespoke language study-abroad programs that integrate language learning, intercultural exchange, and immersive travel experiences.
DHH
We have updated our 2025E–2027E estimates, mainly to take into account the financial effects of the above mentioned moves. In 2025E-27E, we now expect:
1) VoP to reach €60.1mn (17.4% CAGR24A-27E, ~9% organic + targeted M&A);
2) EBITDA and EBIT margins at ca. 30.6% and 17.5% by 2027E;
3) ca. €49mn cumulated EBITDA more than offsetting >€25mn cumulated capex and €13.0-13.5mn expected M&A cash out, leading Net Debt to €2.7mn by 2027E.
EGM Stock Guide
Italian small-mid caps are still suffering of a wait-and-see approach from Investors, an approach that might be justified if we look at recent earnings trends. Indeed, in FY24 EGM companies on aggregate have reported EBITDA substantially flat y/y and Adjusted Net Profit down by -20% y/y. 2025E-26E Consensus Net Profit figures, as well, have been revised downwards by -28% and -10% y/y respectively.
Haiki+
Haiki+ (HIK.MI / HIK IM) completed the €22.9mn acquisition of Ecobat Resources Italy, securing full vertical integration across the battery recycling chain. The deal, originally planned for 2026-2027 and not in our forecasts, adds ~€50mn in Revenues and ~€6mn in EBITDA from FY25 on a pro-forma basis. The entry multiple (~2.7x EV/EBITDA FY24) is attractive, but the €16mn shareholder loan at 8.5% raises leverage and covenant risk in an already tight 2025.
Officina Stellare
Officina Stellare (OS.MI / OS IM) closed FY24 with Value of Production at €22.0mn (+20% y/y, vs. €24mn expected), with a 2H24 slowdown (+5% y/y) due to milestone delays in complex contracts. Rising labour costs (FTE +38%) also pressured margins, with EBITDA at €4.7mn (-21.1% y/y), while Net Debt rose to €12.3mn (from €9.9mn) following €6.3mn capex (~80% R&D-driven).
Casta Diva Group
CDG closed FY24 with €123.1mn in top line (+10% y/y), outperforming its business plan by ~2%, thanks to strategic acquisitions and major event wins. Profitability, however, fell short of expectations: EBITDA Adj. reached €10.4mn vs. €12mn targeted, mainly impacted by underperformance in the luxury segment, a €4.3mn increase in labour costs, higher goodwill amortization, and rising financial charges. Despite over €4mn in M&Arelated cash-out, Net Debt increased by only €3.9mn y/y, landing at €9.5mn (better than our €10.9mn estimate).
Haiki+
FY24 pro forma results came in line with expectations, with Value of Production at €204.3mn (+13% y/y), led by a strong rebound in Haiki Cobat (€94mn, +40% y/y). EBITDA reached €31.3mn, slightly ahead of our €30.5mn forecast, though down from €33.2mn in FY23PF due to ramp-up effects in newer units. Adjusted Net Debt remained stable at €62.1mn, broadly matching our estimate, despite €26mn of Capex and M&A outflows.
Gismondi 1754
For FY24, GIS reported a Value of Production of €12.7mn, down 13% y/y and ca. €2mn below est., impacted by global luxury softness and internal disruptions such as the U.S. subsidiary transition. EBITDA turned negative at -€0.7mn (vs. €1.0mn in FY23) due to margin compression and a higher cost base. Net Debt improved to €5.7mn, beating estimates despite Hyperion Lab’s minority buyout.
Elsa Solutions
FY24 Results are solid and bang in line with expectations, but sales and backlog confirm momentum in the industry is very weak:
– VoP reached €22.3mn
– EBITDA was €2.3mn
– Net Debt improved to €4.4mn
Ulisse Biomed
UBM released its FY24 results, including:
i) Revenues of €768k and VoP of €1,243k
ii)EBITDA loss of €3.0mn
iii) Group EBIT and bottom line affected by €2.3mn annual goodwill amortization
Also, UBM completed a €1.5mn recapitalization in Dec 2024 and issued in 1Q25 further 540k free shares in favor of top management as part of the “Stock Option Plan 2024-2028”. Dec 2024 Net cash was at €1.2mn, well above our expectations but including the recapitalization described, while net of Dec 2024 recap, net cash was ca. €500k below our
forecasts.
Farmacosmo
Value of Production declined 12% y/y to €64.3mn
EBITDA turned positive at €424k (or €869k excluding ContactU, still in its development phase), up from €285k in FY23.
Net Debt rose to €4.1mn (vs. €1.2mn in FY23), impacted by €2mn in NWC absorption and a €1.5mn equity reduction following Innovation Pharma deconsolidation.
Pattern
FY24 Results came out in line with our estimates with PTR delivering on growth targets, while maintaining resilient margins and a very solid financial position. The significant investments in the new HQ in Collegno, ca.€16/17mn over 2024/2026, are progressing as planned, with completion expected by end 2025.
EdiliziAcrobatica
For FY25, management guides for mid-single-digit growth, supported by continued network expansion and workforce upskilling. We revised our estimates downward, factoring in a higher share of lower-margin activities and delayed international profitability.
By FY27E, we expect:
– Value of Production at €193.6mn (8% CAGR24A-27E);
– EBITDA at €21.6mn (ca. 11% margin, yet below historical highs);
– Net Debt at €36.4mn, after >€10mn cumulated pre-dividend FCF.
Magis
– Value of Production €85.2mn (+5.2% y/y), with highly profitable Closure Tapes increasing their incidence to 25% of total (23% in FY23);
– EBITDA €15.2mn (+1.6% y/y), with 17.9% margin (-64bps);
– Net Cash €14.7mn, compared to €5.8mn in FY23;
– Proposed FY24 dividend p/s at €0.92, (€5mn cash-out, 6.7% yield).
Reway Group
We confirm our FY25-26E P&L estimates, while revising Net Debt upward due to higher working capital absorption linked to growth. Some relief may come from the newly acquired Vega, which should streamline tendering processes and shorten payment cycles. Our current forecasts are: 1) Top line at €273mn in 2026E, (8.4% CAGR24A-26E); 2) EBITDA-EBITA margin at ~21.0%-19.1% in FY25E-FY26E; 3) Net Debt 2025 Year-End at ~€67.0mn, factoring tougher working capital dynamics.
La SIA
We revised 2025E–onward forecasts, cutting sales by ~5% p.a. and EBITDA/EBIT by ~8–13%, owing to sustained labor costs and slower margin recovery. Growth will be driven by Civil (55% of sales), with Telco and Utilities at 30% / 15%, respectively. By 2027E, VoP is expected to reach €22.3mn (+13% CAGR24A–27E), with margins gradually improving (EBITDA at 18.1%, EBIT at 15.4%) and Net Cash projected to grow to €4.8mn.
Porto Aviation Group
Our Fair Equity Value remains confirmed at €6.0 p/s, implying ~60% upside and a €14.3mn market cap, based on a blended valuation approach combining peer multiples (€5.8 p/s) and DCF (€6.1 p/s), which would imply 5.8x EV/EBITDA 2026E at fair value. Beyond the numbers, we see strong industrial optionality, with potential for global partnerships outweighing in-house scale-up.
TPS Group
TPS’s delivered P&L results in line with estimates, while outperforming on cash generation: 1) VoP at €52.3mn (+8.3% y/y), supported by higher volumes in technical and engineering services in the aerospace sector and by the ramp-up of the new components division at the Faggiano (TA) facility; 2) EBITDA at €9.1mn (+4.9 y/y), yet lower margin (-56bps) due to heavier production cost structure and some inflationary pressures, especially on labour; 3) €16.4mn Net Cash (vs. €10.6mn FY23).
DHH
DHH FY24 results are solid and substantially in line with expectations. We highlight DHH’s steady growth, high-quality recurring revenues (~94%), solid margins, and strong cash generation. Some numbers:
Revenue from Sales at €35.9mn (+7% y/y, all-organic), with softer 4Q trends at Seeweb offset by Connesi (+15% y/y) and other units;
Reported EBITDA at €12.0mn (+15.4% y/y, +4.3% y/y on Adjusted basis), with EBITDA Margin at 32.3% of VoP, up some +230bps;
Reported EBIT up to €6.8mn (+39.9% y/y, +13.0% y/y Adj.), supported by higher EBITDA and ca. €300k lower D&A expenses;
FCF at €3.4mn, resulting in Net Debt of ca. €3.1mn, mainly attributable to different accounting treatment for leases and IRUs
ErreDue
ErreDue’s FY24 results are slightly above our estimates, mainly on better EBIT, net profit and net cash, while the top line is broadly aligned to our expectations. In particular, we highlight: i) VoP broadly flat at €19.1mn (-1.2% y/y); ii) EBITDA at €5.1mn (vs €5.9mn in FY23), +3% above our estimates, with margin down 270bps to 32.0% (on revenues); iii) Net Cash up to €17.3mn (from €16.3mn in Dec-23), despite a €1.4mn dividend and higher capex, exceeding our forecast, due to lower investments in the Gigafactory and solid NWC management; iv) Proposed DPS at €0.16.
Soges Group
Soges closed FY24 with notable strategic progress, adding 4 properties to its portfolio: Park Hotel Chianti, Hotel Malaspina, Borgo di Cortefreda, and Hotel Bretagna.
The latter had a transformative impact, reflected in FY24PF results:
1) VoP at €24.0mn (from €15.9mn in FY23);
2) EBITDA at €3.0mn, (from €1.5mn in FY23);
3) Net Debt at €10.7mn, (from €3.4mn in FY23).
Reway Group
RWY maintains strong order intake momentum. From our latest update (October ’24) RWY announced > €302mn intakes, with the most recent €208mn being secured in February: 1) €111mn for Milan’s Bovisa Railway Node upgrade; 2) €97mn for extraordinary tunnel maintenance on Ancona Palermo and Rome rail lines
Casta Diva Group
CDG closed FY24 with a 10.7% y/y growth, reaching €123.4mn, largely fueled by M&A, as preliminary data also includes the FY contribution of Artificio Italiano and First Class, acquired at year-end. Management expressed satisfaction with CDG’s performance, highlighting key event wins (e.g., Milano-Cortina 2026 Paralympics) and strategic M&A, reinforcing its market position in high-potential segments.
Elsa Solutions
Our revised model leaves almost unchanged our FY24E forecasts, but it implies an average cut in FY25E-26E revenues and EBITDA by 17%-25% respectively, as the backlog is light, and order acquisition is likely to remain challenging in 1H25. Yet, Elsa is still expected to report a 15% CAGR for top line, 8% for EBITDA and 21% for EPS over FY25E-26E, based on inflection point for Aliant at the end of FY25 and flattish turnover for e-Motion.
Soges Group
The Board of Directors of Soges has approved the final terms and conditions of the rights issue announced back in December, and defined the offering timeline. The key terms of the capital increase are as follows: 1) Issuance of 1,275,958 new shares (1 new share for every 4 shares held) at an offering price of €2.25 p.s., for a maximum value of €2,870,905.50; 2) Commitment of the majority shareholder, Gala Holding, to subscribe 50% of the capital increase; 3) Subscription period set from January 27 to February 13, 2025; 4) Trading of subscription rights from January 27 to February 7, 2025.
Haiki+
aiki+ (HIK.MI / HIK IM) is a one-stop-shop service provider in the Italian waste management market, leveraging advanced expertise, innovative technologies, and an extensive asset base built on a solid M&A track record.
Operating across the entire circular economy value chain, the company offers waste collection, sorting, treatment, recovery, and disposal services. With 4 synergistic business units, Haiki+ manages ∼600k tons of waste annually through 20 proprietary facilities and 70 logistic points, supported by >600 employees, 8,000+ clients, and an extensive supplier network.
Soges Group
Soges has entered into an investment agreement to acquire the whole share capital of Hotel Bretagna, the company which owns and manages the property Hotel Rivalta (under the brand Alfieri Collection) in the centre of Florence. The agreed price is €12.6mn including the building, which will be sold for €4.7mn to a third-party buyer and leased back to Soges.
EGM Stock Guide
EGM remains the most dynamic segment of the Italian market, currently listing 211 high-growth SMEs with an aggregate market cap of €9.6bn, approximately 54% of which represented by the Technology and Industrial sectors.
Valuation: Based on updated 2025 consensus estimates, EGM currently trades at 5.7x
EV/EBITDA and 12.2x P/E. These levels remain attractive relative to historical valuations, supporting a balanced portfolio of growth and value opportunities.
Top Picks: Our selection of top stocks combines momentum, growth, and value-driven picks with strong financial prospects. The full list of Top Picks is in the presentation.
DHH
Based on 9M24 figures, we might be a bit too aggressive on Top Line and EBITDA, while exactly on track on Net Profit and too conservative on Net Debt evolution. For the time being we’re maintaining our estimates unchanged and in 2024E-25E-26E years we expect: 1) VoP to get close to €60mn (18.6% CAGR23A-26E, 10% organic plus M&A); 2) EBITDA Margin always >30%; 3) €46mn cumulated EBITDA more than covering €33mn of cumulated capex and M&A cash out.
La SIA
We reaffirm our 2024E-26E forecasts, acknowledging their ambitious nature, yet we remain confident that, supported by the company’s strong track record and favorable seasonal trends, a solid 4Q24E performance should ensure that our targets are met.
Ulisse Biomed
Slower growth and higher cash needs suggest a worsened earning and funding profile according to our model, based on existing strategies, but subject to reassessment pending better visibility and more insight on M/T projects, once integration is completed.
Farmacosmo
With 1H24 results substantially coherent with our FY estimates, we only fine-tuned our top line forecasts to account for a stronger-than-expected speed of the B2B voluntarily decline, a more controlled growth of Pharmasi and ProfumeriaWeb, and a slightly lower ramp-up of ContactU.
Gismondi 1754
As a result of weak 1H24 figures and of macro uncertainties, we are cutting top-line and EBITDA estimates for the next three years by avg 20% and 60%, respectively, despite factoring a strong recovery in 4Q24E, driven by a bounce in Special Sales and US Wholesale.
La SIA
1H results are not fully aligned with our FY24E forecasts in terms of revenue and profitability; however, on a positive note, the order backlog remains robust. Particularly, as far as FY24E-26E estimates, we now forecast: i) VoP to get close to €20.0mn (9% CAGR23A-26E); ii) EBITDA and EBIT Margin (on VoP) at 18.4% and 16.3% by 2026E; iii) Net Cash to remain stable at ca. €3.4mn by 2026E year-end with 9.7mn cumulated EBITDA.
Soges Group
We fully reaffirm our estimates, which imply a contract acquisition pace of a couple of new hotels each year, equivalent to additional €2.0mn-€2.5mn revenues per year. We see: 1) VoP growing at 14.8% CAGR2023-2028E to €31.8mn in 2028E; 2) EBITDA margin converging to 13.0% in 2028E; 3) FCF progressively increasing and leading to €2.0mn Net Cash By 2028E, when FCF Yield should stand in the 17-18% range.
EdiliziAcrobatica
We broadly confirm our top line estimates, while revising profitability and financial position estimates downward, reflecting a greater contribution from core business and ancillary activities rather than Acrobatica Energy, after weaker-than-expected 1H24 results. We still expect EDAC to reach a top line close to €200mn in 2026E with a 14% EBITDA Margin (€27.4mn), and over €30mn cumulative FCF over the next three years.
Casta Diva Group
With 1H24 top line consistent with projections, we are fine tuning our 2024E-26E estimates downward due to M&A-related costs impacting margins (~150bps downgrade in FY24E EBITDA) and NWC pressures, despite stable EBITDA Adj. and higher FY24E-25E EBIT Adj. from reduced D&A charges Thus, in 2024E-26E, we now forecast: VoP to get close to
€136.7mn by FY26E (7% 3-yrs CAGR); EBITDA and EBIT Margin (on VoP) at 10.5% and 7.1% by 2026E; Net Cash to ca. €2.0mn by 2026E year-end.
Officina Stellare
Following 1H24 results, we have fine-tuned our FY24E estimates while reaffirming our outlook for 2025E and raising our 2026E targets. This is supported by the growing backlog (€50.2mn as of Sep’ 30th) and the first contributions from the JV in 2026E, when we expect:
® Value of Production at €50.5mn, (39% CAGR23A-26E);
® EBITDA at €16.7mn, with margins still in the 30%-35% region;
® Net Debt at €4.7mn, without M&A, dividends, nor warrant cash-in.
Reway Group
Our current 2024E-26E forecasts are: 1) Top line at €254mn in 2026E, (24.4% CAGR23A-26E); 2)EBITDA-EBITA margin at ca. 21.5%-19.6% in FY25E, leading to €50.1mn €45.9mn EBITDA-EBITA respectively; 3) Net Debt 2024 Year-End at ca. €54mn, factoring strong M&A cash out.
Elsa Solutions
In light of 1H results, management indications and macro-outlook, we have upgraded our expectations for FY24E, while leaving broadly unchanged FY25E-26E forecasts. We now expect Revenues and EBITDA CAGR of 20% and 16% into FY26E, respectively, and €3mn FCF over the same period.
Pattern
We are fine tuning our 2024E-26E estimates to factor higher than expected capex related to the building of the new headquarter, while we largely
confirm all of our previous P&L estimates. We see VoP and EBITDA CAGR23PF-26E of ca. 9% and 10% , with EBITDA margin and Net Margin converging to 13.1% and 4.8%. Net Debt is projected to peak at €15.0mn in FY2024E (1.2x Net Debt/EBITDA), with deleveraging strengthening from 2026E and leading to €3.6mn Net Debt by the same year.
ErreDue
We fine tune ErreDue Fair Value at €13.8 p/s (down from €14.6 p/s), due to lower earnings combined with lower peers’ multiples (and despite lower ERP). At €13.80, the stock would trade at 3.0x-9.7x-21.8x EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, P/E Adj. 2025E multiples respectively, i.e., in line with sales multiples of electrolysers manufacturers and still at some discount vs. EBITDA and EPS multiples of global industrial gas suppliers.
Comal
Comal is the leading Italian EPC-M and O&M player in utility scale (>1MW) turnkey PV plants. With >2 GW of cumulative installed capacity, Comal secured a top-tier clientele and decided to expand its offerings to include value-added PV components, such as innovative and patented solar trackers and advanced shelters, becoming a one-stop-shop for solar power solutions.
TPS Group
We are fine tuning our 2024E-26E estimates to factor tempered profitability resulting from the revised revenue mix and inflationary pressures on labour costs observed in 1H24, while keeping our cash generation forecasts unchanged.
Magis
We fine-tuned estimates to take into account of increased investments in working capital (longer payment terms extended to new key clients and updated inventory policy) and Capex (acquisition of the laminator).
Porto Aviation Group
1H results are a bit lower than our FY24E forecasts. Thus, we’ve fine-tuned our FY24E-28E estimates with downward adjustments in the top line,
EBITDA-EBIT, and cash flow due to. In 2024E-28E years we now forecast:
1) VoP to get close to €12.0mn (25.6% CAGR23A-28E); 2) EBITDA and EBIT Margin expected respectively at 26.5% and 21.6% by 2028E; 3) NFP to stands substantially at break-even point by 2026E year-end.
DHH
We are fine tuning our estimates with bit lower Top Line, higher EBITDAEBIT- Net Profit margins, and improved cash generation. In 2024E-25E-26E years we now forecast: 1) VoP to get close to €60mn (18.6% CAGR23A-26E, 10% organic plus M&A); 2) EBITDA Margin always >30%; 3) €46mn cumulated EBITDA more than covering €33mn of cumulated capex and M&A cash out.
Reway Group
A few days ago, RWG has signed the acquisition of a 60% stake of Vega Engineering S.r.l., specializing in road and rail infrastructure engineering, as well as civil and industrial works.
Soges Group
Soges Group is a rapidly expanding company specialized in the high-end hotel facilities management. Its portfolio currently includes 8 properties (with one additional property announced), all located in Tuscany and operated under the “Place of Charme” brand.
Porto Aviation Group
Porto Aviation Group (“Porto”, “PAG”) is establishing itself as one of the most innovative players in the design, engineering and manufacturing of high-performance lightweight aircraft and propellers.
EdiliziAcrobatica
We see this number as consistent with our FY24E €165.8mn Top Line forecast, as: 1) In 1H24 some €90mn new Orders have been acquired; 2) In 2H24 Acrobatica Energy should start posting revenues; 3) Some orders not entirely delivered in 1H24 due to bad weather should be finalized.
Reway Group
Reway Group has released some financial KPIs: 1) Backlog end of June at sound €913mn level, with implied 1H24 Order Intake at €212mn, ca. 65% of our full year estimate; 2) 1H24 Revenues are a brilliant €117.3mn figure, ca. 58% of our full year estimate; 3) Net Debt end of June at €67.0mn, up vs. €38.4mn as of March 2024 mainly due to €27.3mn outlay for Gema acquisition and for the postponement to July of the cash in of Trade Receivables from some large accounts.
ErreDue
ErreDue has reported preliminary KPIs for 1H24, with: Revenues from Sales at ca. €7.7mn, -2% y/y due to clients
requesting the delay of two orders worth €950k to 2H; Net Cash Position at €17.3mn, vs. €16.3mn in FY23, after the distribution of ca. €1.4mn of dividends; Backlog at €17.7mn, o/w >53% related to the current FY and the remainder to FY25.
La SIA
La SIA has reported some preliminary KPIs for 1H24: 1) VoP at ca. €7.0mn, -6% y/y due to the choice to focus on more profitable orders / verticals repositioning its revenue mix to be less reliant on Telco; 2) Net Cash Position at €3.7mn, i.e., a €2.1mn decrease vs. 1Q24 (at €5.8mn), almost entirely driven from €1.5mn paid out in dividends to shareholders; 3) Current backlog at approx. €35.0mn, almost in line with 1H23 (€36.9mn).
Bertolotti
Bertolotti provides turnkey solutions and systems of material handling mainly for steel, railway and aircraft industries. With €38mn FY23 VoP and ca. €70.5mn backlog (Jan 2024), the Company, 100% controlled by the Barneschi family, completed a “just listing” on EGM-Pro in March 2024.
Casta Diva Group
CDG has reported preliminary top line figures for 1H24, with VoP at ca. €57.2mn, implying a sound 13% y/y growth. As 1Q24 VoP was up by over 6% y/y, we calculate that 2Q24 was up ca. 18% y/y. CDG also disclosed its current backlog, ca. €37.4mn. Combined with 1H24 VoP, this totals ca. €91.4mn, which is already 76% of the FY24E top-line target outlined in the latest business plan (€120.7mn).
TPS Group
The management expressed optimism in the company’s 2024 performance to date and stated that it is in line with its expectations. We remind that our forecasts call for Revenues to grow at ca. 7.2% CAGR23A-26E, with profitability remaining robust (EBITDA margin >18%). During 2024-2026, this is expected to result in ca. €30mn cumulated EBITDA and €13mn cumulated Free Cash Flow
DHH
Through its subsidiary Seeweb, DHH has just announced the release of a pioneering Serverless GPU product tailored for AI applications, that is the 2nd AI-enabling product following “Cloud Server GPU” launched in 2021.
Pattern
Pattern Group is a leading independent player in the luxury engineering segment (B2B), serving as a trusted partner, the world’s most prestigious luxury brands. With a strong track record of organic growth, diversification and M&A, PTR is now executing an ambitious plan to build new HQs and expand operations, reinvesting proceeds of 2023 disposal.
Casta Diva Group
FY23 results are in line with our estimates and with CDG business plan targets, and outline another year of strong double-digit growth, both at top line and at all profit levels, while maintaining a healthy financial leverage, despite the significant cash outflows for M&A.
Officina Stellare
Officina Stellare is globally known for its comprehensive expertise in realizing turn-key premium integrated systems and solutions for both Earth- and Space-based applications, with a strong focus on electro-optical and opto-mechanical products.
Ulisse Biomed
The deal has been completed with 13.5mn new shares issued to purchase Hyris equity in Dec 2023, 235k new shares issued to UBM shareholder (rising €455k) in Jan 2024 and with the Feb 2024 GSM appointing the new BoD, now led by Hyris founders and managers.
DHH
1Q24 KPI confirm the robustness of our positive view on DHH that boasts: 1) ideal mix of products / solutions; 2)optimal market positioning in space and time; 3) well carved growth strategy combining organic and M&A levers; 4) highly skilled Top Management; 5) highly responsible ESG commitment.
Magis
Investors, at current market price, would gain exposure to a potential 100% upside over a two-year horizon, assuming an exit multiple at 6.0x EV/EBITDA vs. current 3.3x EV/EBITDA 2024E, or approx. 32% upside if the exit multiple remains in line with current levels, ensuring sustainable double-digit yields across all metrics (Operational FCF, FCF, Earnings yield).
Reway Group
1Q24 KPIs: Backlog at historic high and financials in line with full-year estimates. Net backlog at €935mn (vs. €818mn as of December 2023); 1Q224 Revenues at €47.2mn; Net Debt at €38.4mn (vs. €30.9mn as of December 2023). 2024E-26E Estimates confirmed. Revenues up at 23.9% CAGR23-26E, to ca. €251mn in 2026E; EBITDA and EBITDA margins at 21.4% and 19.6% respectively in 2026E; Net Financial Position at break-even in 2026E.
Vimi Fasteners
Vimi recorded satisfactory FY23 results (despite a deceleration in Q4) with a significant growth in top line boosted by Filostamp acquisition.
Total Revenues +15% y/y at €61.3mn; EBITDA Adjusted reaching €8.2mn; Net Debt at €23.9mn
ErreDue
ErreDue – player in on-site gas generation & purification customized solutions, including H2 electrolysers for green energy transition – is listed on EGM since Dec 2022 and is investing most of IPO proceeds to boost its output capacity. ErreDue is a “small” public company, with 25 employees cumulatively holding 70% of the Company.
Farmacosmo
Weak macroeconomic conditions, business challenges and the strategy to avoid non profitable growth, prompted us to fine tune downwards our forecasts, with over €20mn lower Revenues in FY24E.In 2026E we now expect: Value of Production at €90.1mn, growing at 7% CAGR23A-26E; EBITDA at €2.4mn and EBITDA Margin at 2.7%; OpFCF/EBITDA at 68%, (>0 in 2025E) and €3.7mn Net Debt.
EdiliziAcrobatica
We are fine-tuning our estimates downwards (by ca. 10%) with a slower ramp-up of Acrobatica Fotovoltaico and Smart Living, outlining a non-meaningful y/y comparison in 1H24 (new BUs still in their set up phase vs. Acrobatica Energy running at full speed in 1H23 on high margins Ecobonus projects).
Gismondi 1754
FY23 was fundamental in terms of business development (acquisition of Vendorafa brand and Hyperion Lab craftmanship, plus the new franchising
agreement in the Middle East), building the foundation for future growth prospects.
Elsa Solutions
Elsa management indicates that the first two months of 2024 have been strong, backed by new client acquisitions in motion control and strong demand for Aliant. However, the EU Industrial Automation industry has weakened, but ELSA is benefitting from its product and commercial strategy and from the electrification processes acceleration.
Euronext Growth Milan
EGM FY23 earnings season outlines a weak aggregate picture, with top line up only 9% y/y (vs. historical growth rates > 30% and considering M&A). Ca. 30% of companies has reported top line down y/y, due to macroeconomic weakness, energy prices deflation, fiscal incentives cancellation.
TPS Group
We are fine tuning our 2024E-25E estimates and adding 2026E ones taking into account the widened group perimeter, a more dynamic top line evolution, and some more inflationary pressures on labour costs.
La SIA
FY23 results confirm La SIA’s key features of, i.e. top class EBITDA Margin, in the 20% region, and light asset structure entailing high returns on equity and on capital employed (ca. 20% and >35% respectively in FY23). Overall, FY23 figures underline a mid-single digit growth rate, with a changing mix (up: Civil, Mobility Infrastructures, Energy; down: Telco).
Reway Group
We are changing our 2024E-25E estimates: 1) Revenues up at 23.9% CAGR23-26E, to ca €251mn in 2025E; 2) EBITDA and EBIT margins at 21.4% and 19.6% respectively in 2025E; 3) Net Financial Position reaching break-even in 2026E, thanks to €48.6mn receivables cash-in within FY25E, as well as cumulative €39.4mn Net Cash Generated in the forecast period.
Magis
Magis SpA is active in the design, manufacturing and commercialisation of adhesive tapes and closure systems for nappies and incontinence pads, recognized for its commitment to R&D, excellence in product development / manufacturing, and customer-focused approach.
DHH
DHH stands out at the forefront of technological innovation and ethical business practices, excelling for ideal mix of products, optimal market positioning, well carved growth strategy, highly skilled top management and highly responsible ESG commitment.
Reway Group
The Reway Group has announced that its subsidiary, Gema, has secured new contracts valued at approximately €84mn in the railway sector. These contracts are associated with four framework agreements awarded by RFI, focusing on the maintenance of stations, buildings, and railway infrastructures across several Italian regions.
MeglioQuesto
FY23 KPIs worse than exp. (industrial/accounting reasons). VoP €87mn-€89mn; EBITDA Adj. €5mn-6mn; Net Debt €31mn-€33mn. ND/EBITDA 10x, above covenants of MQ 4.75% bond. Priorities: accelerate growth of Financial and Utilities clients; achieve better NWC mgmt; cut the cash out for minorities acquisition; renegotiate bond covenants. Estimates and FV U/R.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
Dismissal of BF contract as of May 2025, very bad news as Gin Mare and Diplomatico Rum are two of the top three brands in terms of contribution to CDC revenues. Elephant Gin in financial stress, will likely file for insolvency. VT Estimates and Fair value no longer valid. The likelihood of a dilutive rights issue has materially increased.
EdiliziAcrobatica
FY23 Preliminary Group Revenues +12% y/y (+7% l-f-l), after a strong comeback in 4Q23 (+32% y/y, 22% organic), supported by Acrobatica Energy and Enigma BUs, weather conditions and demand ramp-up thanks to an acceleration of Banca Sella financing. Business and corporate development continuing at unrelented pace. Estimates and Fair Value (€20.00 p/s) confirmed.
Reway Group
Readmission to RFI’s supplier portal, no basis for the suspension, allowing RWG to participate to all new tenders in the railway sector. Backlog over €800mn, after new contract >€33mn for the structural rehabilitation of four viaducts along the A25 Torano – Pescara Route. 2023PFE-25E estimates confirmed. Fair value at €6.33 (from €5.77).
Compagnia dei Caraibi
FY23 KPIs slightly below expectations. Revenues at €51.9mn-€52-9mn (+7% or +9% y/y) vs. our forecast of €53.9mn; Net Debt at €11.9mn-€12.4mn vs. €8.6mn estimated. Results confirmed the market “normalization” trend of 2023, shared across industry peers. Forecasts and fair value (€2.66 p/s fully diluted, from €3.86) fine-tuned, due to still uncertain outlook.
Elsa Solutions
Very reassuring FY23 KPIs: revenues at €19.2mn (+26% y/y, €18.9mn estimated),backlog at €11.4mn vs €10.4mn of June 2023, supporting 50% of our FY24E revenues. Aliant acquired #34 new projects in FY23 (#24 in FY22 and #26 in the first 9 months), confirming momentum is still quite strong. Our unchanged model confirms strong growth into FY25. Fair Value at €4.6 p.s (from €4.0).
Euronext Growth Milan
2023 not a bullish year, with higher interest rates and deteriorating economic conditions, leading to FTSE IT Growth Index -11%, IPO multiples at 4.4x EV/EBITDA FY1, low liquidity, trading stock multiples at the lowest level of last 4-5 years. BUT IPO activity remained strong, stock performances are turning positive, trading volumes are rebounding. 2024 is poised for a better stance.
Reway Group
Se.Gi. suspended from RFI supplier portal due to the “ANAS scandal” of the previous owners of Se.Gi (implications hardly but downward pressure on the stock). New contract worth €62mn(over the last month new orders totalling ca. €100mn; updated backlog figures to stand at more than 5yy of revenues). Estimates and Fair Value under review.
Ulisse Bio Med
UBM has signed a binding agreement to acquire 100% of Hyris, owner of an innovative integrated platform for PCR analysis, which has proved to be highly compatible with UBM’s assay. While the strategic rationale is clear, the main concern pertains to the funding of the new UBM Group, whose cash burn rate is more than doubled post deal. Management is addressing this challenge.
Casta Diva Group
Following the acquisition of Akita film and E-motion, CDG has updated its business plan. Financial targets have been, once again, revised upwards, both due to acquisitions and to higher organic growth. CDG has also confirmed its dividend policy. We are upgrading our financial forecasts as well but our stance on future organic growth is more cautious compared to company’s. We are increasing our fair-value estimate from EUR 2.0 per share to EUR 2.15.
DHH
DHH has announced some 9M23 financial figures which underline a very satisfactory double-digit increase of operating profitability and a higher Net Debt position due to M&A cash out. We have substantially maintained unchanged our ’23E-’25E P&L estimates, while taking into account recent M&A cash out in the BS. We maintain the Fair Value unchanged, as well, at €22.4.
Gismondi 1754
We are updating our estimates to factor in both the impact of acquisitions and slower development of organic revenues. We estimate that Hyperion Lab acquisition, announced on Nov14th, will be accretive. We cut FY’23E-‘25E VoP by 5% on average. Forecasted EBITDA is also down even though it will benefit from cost synergies due to the integration of Hyperion.
Casta Diva Group
We are reviewing our ‘23E-‘25E estimates to take into account: 1) the impact of recently announced Akita acquisition; 2) the higher cash out of other minor M&A deals (Genius and Overseas) and the subsequent abatement of minorities from 2023E onwards; 2) fine tuning of “old perimeter” estimates, with a bit more cautious approach related to macro uncertainties.
EdiliziAcrobatica
EDAC has reported unaudited data for 9M23 Revenues (gross of banking fees) standing at ca. €118mn, up 6% y/y. Standalone, 3Q23 came out at ca. €40mn (+7% y/y). Since 9M22 results were still impacted by invoice discounting on fiscal aids works, 9M23 figures are good signs of business resiliency and development. Estimates and fair value confirmed.
Elsa Solutions
Elsa is a B2B industrial company specialized in motion control (E-motion, 59% of FY’22 T/O) and in special purpose batteries (Aliant, 41% of FY’22 T/O). The Co. landed on EGM last October. We expect for ELSA a 24% top line CAGR’22-‘25 with Aliant growing much faster. Net net, we see a bottom line 39% CAGR2022-25 , albeit we reckon main risks are macro, execution, technology.
La SIA
La SIA provides Design & Engineering services tailored to meet the needs of its clients: large corporates in end markets such as TLC, Civil & Design, Project & Works mgmt. Its features lead to above average metrics: ca. 27% “win rate” in tenders, %EBITDA above 20%. Our ‘23E-‘25E forecasts scenario: 1)VoP up at ca. 9.4% CAGR 22A-25E; 2)Avg %EBITDA at ca. 21.4%; 3)Div. yield ca 3.5%
Farmacosmo
Sales keep growing double-digits thanks to online retail and recent M&A. Nevertheless, profitability down y/y as efficiencies are not fully integrated yet. We are d-ward revising our T/O forecast due to a lower expected ramp-up of the turnover. We are also cutting EBITDA forecasts. Full integration should require some more time before starting to generate material cost synergies.
MeglioQuesto
After the disclosure of H1’23 financials, and taking into account the deteriorating macro scenario, we are fine tuning d-wards our ‘23E-‘24E-‘25E estimates. We still assume a proper take-off of the new initiatives to be launched by MQ. At the same time, we warn that visibility on such a proper take-off is quite low. New estimate of fair value at EUR1.1 p.s.
EdiliziAcrobatica
Growth rates ahead remain double digit, but we see a different scenario for revenues in Italy and abroad. This prompts a downwards revision of 2023E-25E EBITDA forecasts by ca. 20% on average and implies a higher NWC impacting Debt. Based on revised underlying scenario, we update EDAC fair value at €20.00 p.s. (from €25.00).
Ulisse BioMed
Following H1’23 results and recent news we are updating our FY’23E-25E forecasts. We are now expecting lower revenues and higher cash burn for FY23E, but visibility should start improving soon. We believe UBM will widen its distribution contracts to another panel by end of FY23. Our forecast horizon appears fully funded.
Reway group
RWG has signed the acquisition of a 70% stake in Se.Gi. SpA, an Italian construction and maintenance company with a focus on railway infrastructures. In FY24E we estimate Se.Gi. to add to RWG figures ca. €54mn revenues and ca. €15mn EBITDA. RWG is paying EUR 63mln for the stake of Se.Gi. We appreciate the entry of RWG into the “high-margin” Railway infrastructures market.
VIMI Fasteners
Following strong H1 and 9m’23 results we update our FY forecasts and see higher operating profitability in 2023. However, our net profit forecasts are unchanged due to one-off costs for M&A in ‘23. For FY’24E and FY’25E we slightly cut operating profitability. Valuation shows an unjustified discount of VIMI compared to its peers.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
At H1’23 results publication CDC stated that current trading conditions were weaker than expected and withdrew the guidance on 2023E figures. We are therefore cutting our ’23E and ‘24E FY forecasts and fine tuning FY’25E. we are lowering our 2023E-25E Top Line forecasts by average 16%, with a more than proportional impact on EBITDA-EBIT-Net Profit.
Officina Stellare
After brilliant H1’23 results we are upgrading our FY’23E profitability forecasts; we include in our forecasts also State grants OS has received. The positive trend in commercial negotiations helps us to confirm our optimism about the company’s prospects. We expect EUR 11.6mln EBITDA in 2025 i.e., 3.6x vs. 2022. Company is trading at an unjustified 45% discount vs. foreign peers.
Euronext Growth Milan
Aggregated revenues continue to grow (8.1%) but slowing down compared to last year; 31% of EGM companies recorded y/y declining revenues. EBITDA is flat, EBIT is decreasing by 13% and Profit down as well (-33%). Debt is going up. Only 30% of companies included in our sample are generating positive FCF. Slowdown is faster than expected.
Growens
Growens has started the procedure for the sale of 100% of the share capital of Datatrics to Squeezely BV. Datatrics was losing money and turnaround has proved difficult to achieve. As far as the impact on the Group’s Net Financial Position is concerned, we estimate some €1.3mn-€1.5mn impact net of transaction costs.
Gismondi 1754
After a set of good H1’23 results we are downward revising our FY’23 estimates due to the rising uncertainty of the Hard Luxury sector. Our forecasts however are only slightly impacted, as GIS top-end positioning and strong business development should mitigate the sector outlook. We update Fair Equity Value at €7.40 p/s
TPS Group
First synergies of the integration of HB Technology will start as of 1H’24. TPS Lower %EBITDA in H1’23 is due to inflationary pressure on raw materials and labor costs, as well as the lower margins of HB compared to TPS’. Fine-tuning for our ‘23E-‘25E financial estimates leading to a bit more cautious outlook on margins and NFP. Company’s growth potential remains robust.
DHH
DHH’s 1H23 interim results are healthy, consistent with our FY estimates. Net Debt is well under control. We expect DHH to keep complementing organic growth strategies (product innovation, marketing, ARPU upselling), and M&A driven ones (acquisition of network infrastructure-based “premium” B2B ISPs). We are fine tuning our 2023E-25E estimates
MeglioQuesto
Following preliminary H1 results we are updating our 23-25E estimates. We keep unchanged our VoP estimates but we are slightly downgrading our margin estimates. Fears of a macroeconomic slowdown are affecting sector stocks. After derating in sector multiples and cut in our estimates our new fair value stands at €1.5 ps
Innovatec
H1’23 revenues are down yoy by 41% due to the decrease in sales of both divisions (ECE, EER). EBIT % margin from 8.6% to 2.3%. The Company is developing new activities such as PV systems (pipeline 400MW). The energy efficiency business is being refocused towards B2B and PA customers. Pending end of September strategy presentation we are d-grading our 23E-24E forecasts.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
CDC announced 1H23 Revenues ranging from €28.3mn to €28.8mn (+1.2% to +3.0% vs. 1H22). 2Q has faced some challenges compared to 1Q performance (+18.2%). In recent months the company bought 8 hectares of land to enter wine production business. For the time being we leave our forecasts 2023E-25E unchanged. After H1 full results we will update our estimates.
Casta Diva Group
CDG group released preliminary top line figures for 1H23, with Value of Production at ca. €52mn, implying a sound 25% y/y growth vs. the 1H22 (€41.7mn): this figure already fully included Genius Progetti. Management disclosed also current backlog, reporting a value of ca. €27mn. 1H23 figures and backlog account for 91% of the FY23E top line target. We confirm our forecasts.
Farmacosmo
Thanks to a good performance in Q2’23 (Revenues at €17.9mn), H1’23 T/O grew by 17% compared to +6% in Q1’23. Growth was driven by Online Retail while B2B revenues went down. The integration of the companies acquired in the latest Qs is on track. We maintain our 2023-25E estimates unchanged although we might slightly decrease revenue forecast after H1’23 full results.
Gismondi 1754
Gismondi published 2Q23 Operating Revenues at ca. €3.7mn (+7% y/y), implying 1H23 Top Line at €7.9mn (+12% y/y), with growth rates in line with global peers. The diversification strategy is responding very well, with European Wholesale and Qatar franchising more than offsetting less performing activities. Forecasts confirmed despite some market concerns
Growens
Q2 ’23 Annual recurring revenues (ARR) of the SAAS business stood at €30.4mn. YoY growth rate was +9.9%. BEE unit recorded the highest growth rate at group level while Datatrics registered a decline in the quarter. As for the CPaaS business, sales decreased by 10.8% since the company is focusing more on margins than on revenue growth. EMS disposal deal progressing as scheduled
Euronext Growth Milan
The positive aspect of the ’22 aggregate results of listed companies on EGM is the double-digit growth compared to ’21. The downside is the lack of cash generation, due to working capital absorption and investments. The expected growth for ’23E-’24E is also noticeable, although perhaps overestimated. Note also there are many quality companies trading at low valuations.
Casta Diva Group
We are upgrading our 23E and 24E forecasts, following a buoyant Q1’23. We now expect ’23E revenues and margins to be higher than management targets. On the day of shareholders’ approval of FY22 financial statement, management confirmed the payment of €3M dividends in the 23-25 period. CEO is continuing to buy shares. Our fair value increase from €1.60 to €1.85
TPS Group
TPS has announced the acquisition of Italian co. HB Technology, a provider of engineering services for the aerospace sector and manufacturer of small parts. We appreciate the industrial rationale of the deal. We estimate HB to add to TPS figures ca. €6-6.3mn T/O, ca. €750k EBITDA and some €3.7mn Net Debt. We are increasing our estimates and fair value
DHH
DHH has announced 1Q23 results that highlight a brilliant double-digit growth (even on organic basis) of T/O and operating profitability; Net Debt remains stable. First time co publishes Q1 figures. The company is accelerating its growth rate and operating profitability is under control. However, the business model is getting more capital intensive due to proprietary infrastructure needs
Officina Stellare
Management is demonstrating to be able to catch many market opportunities arising from the Space Economy, and recent commercial developments outline a reliable multiannual plan of constant growth at a strong pace. As of 1Q23, OS commercial pipeline totalled €156.4mn. However, the skill shortage should take a toll on OS development plan in the short-term.
Gismondi 1754
Gismondi 1754 is active in the designing, marketing and distribution under its proprietary brand of very high-end jewelry handcrafted. Growth strategy should be based on (i) expansion on international markets, via wholesale channels (ii) M&A activity for in-house craftmanship. We expect 25E VoP at €29.0mn, i.e. 24% CAGR22A-25E; EBITDA margin at 18% in 2025.
ILBE SpA
Following FY22 results we publish new 2023E-24E forecasts. Compared to our previous estimates we see higher top line, broadly unchanged EBIT, despite lower margins (avg 11.2% vs previous 12.4%), and lower cash generation (cumulated €-0.6mn vs previous €0.6mn).
TPS Group
TPS is a B2B tech enabler providing to top tier industrial groups highly specialized engineering advisory and design services. Among its competitive advantages we flag: humang capital and strong ties with clients. TPS business model operates with organic growth in the mid-single digit space, double digit margins (2025E EBIT margin at 15.9%), and very low capital requirements.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
In FY22 CDC had a 32% increase in revenues but EBITDA slightly declined. We believe that part of the miss in profitability could be due to a not surprising difficulty in handling too many projects at once. 2023E guidance is well below our previous estimates. The bulk of the difference, in our view, is due to the new terms of Brown-Forman distribution agreement.
Farmacosmo
Over FY22 and 1Q23, Farmacosmo has finalized many M&A deals aimed at building a 360° value proposition in the Health, Pharma & Beauty space and at pivoting the business model from a “products only” approach to a “products + services” one. We are revising 2023E-24E by considering: the impact of the deals and a less positive view on organic e-retailing evolution.
EdiliziAcrobatica
Over FY22-1Q23, EDAC enlarged its footprint, with 6 new branches, the set-up of operations in Monaco, >300 new net hirings and an acquisition in Dubai. We are revising EDAC estimates. VoP up by 20%-30% in 2023E-24E, thanks to the contribution of Dubai co and a different “organic” Revenues mix. EBITDA % to stay at 18%-19% vs. 10%-11% pre-pandemic.
Vimi Fasteners
We are revising our 2023E-25E estimates by taking account: i) the impact of Filostamp deal; ii) a more positive view on organic business development. For the current year we also expect an improvement in operating profitability. Value creation from Filostamp deal and peers rerating drive our Vimi fair value per share at €2.70 (from €2.26)
Reway Group
Reway Group is active since ‘90s, but has started accelerating since 2017, outperforming a highly growing reference market, boasting healthy financials (backlog over €400mn, EBITDA margin up to 18%) and only few concerns (clients concentration, raw materials volatility). At current market price RWG is trading at 4.7x EV/EBITDA, 10.0x P/E Adj. 2023E. Our FV is €4.75 p/s.
Ulisse Biomed
FY22: revenues broadly in line, slightly higher costs, Net Cash at €3.8mn. New 1Q23 distribution contracts (ELITech, Aenorasis) improve visibility, while LadyMed is ready for national roll out in FY23. Forecasts broadly confirmed and fully funded; FV revised up to €2.2 from €1.65; stock price has doubled since new contracts and trades almost in line with our updated FV.
MeglioQuesto
FY22 financials in line with preliminary and VT estimates. “Together 2023-2025” is MQSPA new industrial plan, more focused on self-lead generation with media advertising services, new touchpoints, e-commerce with HW products, installation services and AI tools. Estimates broadly confirmed, but new business mix. FV at €2.29 p/s (from €2.22 p/s).
Digital360
Final FY22 figures with no surprise: EBITDA at €9.7mn (17.1% EBITDA Margin), EBITDA PF at €14.3mn (+79% y/y), ARR at €17.1mn (+62% y/y) and number of subscriptions at 370 (+74 y/y). DIG has become the largest player of the LATAM region in only one year (ca. 24% of its 2022 PF Demand Generation Revenues outside Italy). Forecasts and FV (€6.0 p/s) confirmed.
Casta Diva Group
2025E Revenues to surpass €100mn threshold, €11.1mn EBITDA and €4.5mn Net Cash, after some €3.0mn dividends. Value Track estimates fine-tuning upwards, a bit more conservative than CDG in 2024E, forecasting €92mn Value of Production, €7.7mn EBITDA. FV revised at €1.60 p/s (>100% upside).
Growens
FY2022 Revenues in line with estimates, margins and NFP a bit below burdened by some one-off items. 2023-26 growth drivers: commitment to the 40% rule; focus on BEE development; opportunistic approach to divestments; focus on return for investors. FV confirmed at €6.80 p/s fully diluted.
DHH
Brilliant FY22 results, slightly higher than estimates: VoP up ca. +50% y/y (11% organic), Recurring Revenues at 94% , Adj. EBITDA up +24.8% y/y (partly burdened by the surge in energy costs), OpFCF conversion at ca. 80%. The strategy to acquire/revamp B2B premium ISPs generating upselling revenue synergies is definitively bearing its fruits. FV p/s at €22.3 (from €21.4).
Compagnia dei Caraibi
CDC has finalized the €1.03mn acquisition of We r-eticsoul Srl, scaleup active in both online and offline beverages distribution that in FY22 achieved €0.24mn turnover, €-0.3mn EBITDA and had €0.52mn Net Debt position. The deal is aimed at allowing CDC to leverage its brand building skills with B2B and B2C clients, both online and offline. FV p/s (fully-diluted) stable at €6.30.
Innovatec
Preliminary FY22: Revenues €289mn, +21% y/y, but lower than €295mn expected; EBITDA margin 11.1%, 270bps below FY21PF, EBIT €18.7mn, +75% y/y, in line. Net Debt at €49mn, on lower EBITDA, higher Capex and M&A-related debt. FV at 2.0 p/s (from €2.5), long-term story remains strong despite challenging outlook in the short-term (HouseVerde Superbonus business).
MeglioQuesto
FY22 Preliminary: VoP (€78mn-€81mn) in line with estimates, EBITDA (€11.5mn-€12.5mn) a bit lower, Net Debt (€30mn-€32mn) higher, affected by investments dedicated to lead generation aimed at fostering medium/long term growth and profitability potential, burdening short-term cash flow generation. FV p/s at €2.22 (down from €2.52).
Digital360
Solid FY22 preliminary figures, in line with estimates: PF Revenues €77mn (+85% y/y, LFL at +10% y/y), Pro-Forma EBITDA €14mn (LFL EBITDA €8.4mn) vs. €8mn in FY21PF, and Net Debt at €14mn vs. Net Cash at €3.1mn in FY21, after ca. €20mn M&A cash-out.Three more M&A deals in LATAM (€3mn Revenues, €0.5mn EBITDA, €1.1mn cash-out). FV p/s confirmed at €6.00.
Growens
Binding agreement for the disposal of the “Email Service Provider” company branch. Consideration stands at €70mn with €62mn gross of tax capital gain, while withdrawal right for GROW shareholders set at €4.39 per share. The transaction will result in a new Group perimeter (BEE, Agile Telecom, Datatrics) with a completely different growth-profitability profile. FV p&s increased to €6.80 (from €6.00).
DHH
M&A activity goes on and on: 45% stake in Warian Srl, Italian B2B Internet Service Enabler/Provider (€1.3mn Revenues) and 100% stake in Misterdomain Srl, Italian hosting market player (€500k revenues, very positive EBITDA margin and no debt). Estimates fine-tuning: 2024E Revenues at €38mn (24.4% CAGR), EBITDA Margin >30%, NFP >0. FV p/s at €21.4 (from €21.1).
Compagnia dei Caraibi
Preliminary FY22 Revenues at €54mn-€55mn: +27% y/y. Net Cash €300k-€600k (€6mn at the end of 9M22), affected by PTO and Elephant Gin. 2023E-24E estimates confirmed: VoP to grow at ca. 20% p.a. up to €83mn in 2024E, EBITDA to €10.5mn and Net Cash at €1.0mn despite €11.7mn cash-out for remaining 75% of Elephant Gin. FV p/s (fully-diluted) at €6.30 (unchanged).
Euronext Growth Milan
2022 YTD: one of the worst periods ever for EGM stocks. Macro uncertainties have depressed the stance of all equity markets, and EGM makes no exception. YTD EGM counts only 17 admissions finalized at 6.0x IPO EV/EBITDA FY1 (down from 7.1x in ’21) and prices and volumes are down 20% y/y. Top picks: stay selective on momentum, excessively derated or value for quality stocks.
Nice Footwear
NFT reported sound results for the FY ending in April 2022, above our estimates thanks to an outstanding 2H. Despite global adverse scenarios, in less than a year NFT has been able to deliver most of its IPO promises: Favaro and Emmegi acquisitions to strengthen “Made in Italy” footprint and luxury offer; new operational headquarter for a smoother integration; new high potential JV with Avirex. FV p/s at €14.8 (€14.6 fully-diluted) from 16.1.
Casta Diva Group
With targeted 2022E Top Line and EBITDA at €57.6mn and €4.8mn respectively, and top tier clients such as Ferrari, Allianz, Intel, Moncler etc, Casta Diva is one of the top Italian players in Live & Digital Communication, Creative Content Production. Fair value at €1.25 per share vs. €0.65 market price. Additional value could come if CDG continues its successful M&A activity.
Euronext Growth Milan
After a brilliant 2021, EGM is now showing some gloomy signs, impacted by recent geopolitical turmoil and macro uncertainties. We believe that the current scenario might hide some investment opportunities among companies that are either best-positioned to ride favorable macro trends or structurally resilient, thanks to a lower correlation vs. GDP growth.
Farmacosmo
Farmacosmo boasts a leading domestic position as H&B e-retailer, proven by €96 Average Order Value, >60% orders from recurring clients, nihil return rate. Value proposition is focused on customer centric approach, profit-oriented strategy, internally developed technology platforms, “zero warehouse” policy. Fair Equity Value at €2.91 per share (€2.69 Fully Diluted).
Euronext Growth Milan
2021 very positive year for stocks performances. #44 companies admitted to EGM (2x vs. 2020), IPO EV/EBITDA FY1 at all time high (7.7x up from 5.9x in 2020), nearly half of IPOs boasting a positive performance in excess of 40%.
Solid FY21 results, higher than pre-covid 2019FY. FY21 best performing companies are trading at ca. 8.2x-6.6x EV/EBITDA and 17.1x-14.5x P/E 2022E-23E multiples.
Euronext Growth Milan
After Russia’s military attack on Ukraine, the European Commission approved new emergency measures to mitigate the shock of high energy prices and increase domestic gas storage. This could open interesting investment opportunities among Energy Efficiency providers, Energy facilities constructors or in energy equipment manufacturers.
Innovatec
Innovatec is an Italian pure play in the cleantech industry, active in Energy Efficiency and Environmental Services & Circular Economy. INC is well positioned in an extremely attractive sector, top line is forecasted to grow at 20% CAGR (EPS at 50%) and with major short-term concern only represented by execution risk rather than geopolitics. We initiate with a €2.7 Fair Equity value p/s.
Digital360
Preliminary FY21 Revenues PF at €41.1mn (+56% y/y), EBITDA at €8.0mn (+60%), Net Debt turning positive and close to €3.0mn (-1.4mn FY20), despite intensive but accretive M&A deals (last o/w being Xona). We are fine-tuning our estimates: slightly slower top line growth, marginally heavier G&A costs base offset by positive operating leverage. Fair Value at €5.37 p/s (from €5.30).
DHH
FY21 Gross Sales up +108% y/y at €19.71mn, bang in line with our €19.49mn top-line estimate that was not taking into account the one month consolidation of the last M&A deal, i.e. the Bulgarian company Evolink that added €253k revenue to Group figures. We do not change our estimates and we confirm our Fair Equity value p/s at €24.0.
Nice Footwear
NFT reported an excellent 1H21 top line with revenues at €14.4mn. However, the business was affected by seasonality, supply chain disruption and tightening raw materials. More, NFT acquired 80% of Emmegi, a Padua-based company active in the production of women’s luxury handbags, with an acquisition price of 1.6x EV/EBITDA. We confirm a €16.0 Fair Equity value p/s.
Officina Stellare
OS has announced the signature of a new supply contract with a leading international player active in the geo-spatial analysis sector, to be delivered in 2022-23, worth approximately €8.5mn, for the provision of high-resolution LEO space telescopes for Earth Observation services. Based on the positive newsflow, we review OS fair value per share at €17.2 (up from €15.7).
ILBE Group
ILBE has completed its admission to trading on Euronext Growth Paris by direct listing to increase visibility towards international investors and entering the French Media sector. 9M21 KPIs confirm 1H trends, but Q3 suggests also a lower top line momentum (flat y/y) and a further unexpected cash absorption. Fair value per share trimmed to €5.0 from €5.3 on higher Net Debt.
Growens
As of Dec’21, Growens has released 1) ARR of the SaaS business line at €23.2mn (+16.3% y/y); 2) Gross Sales from CPaaS at €43.4mn in FY21 (+6.5%), with a strong acceleration in 4Q21 (+22.2%). Within the SaaS business division, BEE kept growing at full speed, recording the highest growth rate (+57%), with ARR at €7.3mn. Our fair valuation remains unchanged a €6.30 p/s.
MeglioQuesto
MQ has acquired a 51% stake of OM Group, €9mn revenue Italian leader in the field marketing area, by paying €5.6mn equal to ca. 6x-7x EV/EBITDA multiple, aimed at strengthening MQ competitive positioning in the “human” CX channel. We calculate the deal to be value accretive to MQ’s EPS22E-23E by ca. 13%. We update at €4.80 (from €4.60) our fair Equity Value p/s.
Somec
Somec to increase its controlling interest up to 70.9% in Fabbrica LLC to further strengthen its market coverage in North America. The transaction has been finalized at 6.6x EV/EBITDA and 18.6x P/E 2022E. We calculate the deal to be value enhancing, with a 8.2% and 3.0% positive impact on EPS and EFCF. We update our fair equity value to €41 p/s (from €40).
Nice Footwear
Nice Footwear is the Italian partner of reference for the design, production and distribution of sports and leisure footwear, with own, licensed and third parties’ collections. We expect the Group to grow fast in the next 3yrs: 18% top line CAGR, 22% EBITDA CAGR and cumulated €8.5mn deleveraging. We initiate coverage at €16.0 per share, i.e. 1.2x EV/Sales and 10.1x EV/EBITDA FY22E.
Euronext STAR Milan
STARs’ aggregate 9M21 Revenues, EBITDA, EBIT and Net Profit up by 20%, 29%, 58%, and 115% y/y. However, full recovery from Covid-19 should be finalized only in 2022E. We signal several “old economy” stocks in our top pick lists, made of “Growth At Reasonable Price”, “Pure Growth”, “Secular” and “High Quality” stocks clusters.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
CdC released excellent (unaudited) 9M21 financials KPIs: 1) Revenues at €28.7mn, up 60% y/y; 2) Net Cash Position at €8.2mn vs. Net Debt at €3.5mn as of 1H21 (IPO proceeds of €10.6mn). We revised upwards our estimates, expecting Revenues growing 25% CAGR 20A-23E, EBITDA at €7.5mn in 2023E (12.3%), Net Cash at €10.5mn by 2023E. We updated our Fair Value per Share at €5.90 (from €5.40), as result of our new estimates and peers multiples rerating over the last 2 months.
DHH
DHH acquires 60% stake in Evolink, entering promising new geographies (Bulgaria) and new fast growing market segments (provisioning of connectivity services). DHH has also announced that Errera, the startup backed by DHH, has completed its business combination with Icona Technology.We update our valuation at €24.0 p/s (from €22.5)
Ulisse Biomed
UBM is an Italian Diagnostic company active in the development of i) RT-PCR molecular diagnostic assays/reagents; ii) nano-switches based assays for therapeutic drug monitoring; and iii) antiviral aptamers for therapeutic or diagnostic purposes. We start coverage on UBM with €4.50 p/s calculated as average of peers and DCF.
DHH
3Q/9M21 Gross Sales confirm the healthy growth of DHH, with positive results recorded across all geographies the Group is currently operating. We are leaving our 2021E-23E financial estimates and €22.5 fair value p/s unchanged.
ILBE Group
Interim results confirm the limited impact of pandemic on ILBE operations, i.e. strong revenues growth (2x y/y) together with material margin dilution and steady cash absorption, despite strong earnings (net profit +25% y/y). Fair value per share unchanged at €5.30 p/s as slightly higher sector ratings and forecasts are offset by higher Net Debt.
Growens
3Q/9M21 financial data confirm the good resiliency of SaaS model, and the unchanged growth-oriented strategy put in place so far. Consolidated revenues achieved a new all-time high at €51.1mn (+6.8% y/y) with both SaaS and CPaaS component growing high single-digit.2021E-22E-23E estimates and €6.30 fair value per share confirmed.
Euronext Growth Milan
Euronext Growth Market currently counts 155 listed companies (138 as of Dec’20) for an aggregate €10bn market Cap, spread across nine different industries. All KPIs are on the healthy side: 1) ECM strongly accelerating (€600mn raised, 23 new listings); 2) FTSE Italia Growth Index very close to its all-time high; 3) Market liquidity steadily improving.
Officina Stellare
1H21 profitability back to pre-pandemic levels, VoP up ca. 26% y/y, EBITDA doubled y/y to €1.8mn. Positive newsflow impacting the investment case, driving higher 2021E estimates, 2022E-23E confirmed. We confirm our view of Officina Stellare as a zero-cost call option on the success of the “Space Economy opportunity”. We revised upwards our fair value per share at €15.7 (from €11.2).
EdiliziAcrobatica
Fiscal aids driving triple digit y/y 1H21 growth, with 2x VoP and accounting of fiscal incentives lifting reported EBITDA margin at 18.9%. We expect a 36% top line CAGR20A-23E, reaching VoP of €117mn, EBITDA of €16.3mn and Net Debt of €3.7mn in 2023E. At €20 market price, EdAc shares would be correctly discounting our “base case” for 2022E-23E.
Vimi Fasteners
1H21 figures highlight encouraging signs of business recovery from pandemic-related bottom: Sales were up +21% y/y at €22.1mn, EBITDA increased by 71% y/y, peaking at €3mn. Reassuring new flows across end-markets, higher visibility on Group strategy, and faster than peers’ recovery support stock rerating. We update our fair value at €2.50
Growens
Sales in 3Q +12.4% y/y, SaaS ones +25.5% y/y, recurring revenues +34% y/y,BEE at the biggest growth driver with Sales at €2.1mn (+107% y/y).
2021E-onwards estimates and €6.30 fair value per share confirmed.
Compagnia dei Caraibi
Compagnia dei Caraibi is a leading Italian player in the selection, marketing and distribution of best-in-class alcoholic brands, such as Gin Mare, Rum Diplomatico, Amaro Jefferson. We expect CdC to keep growing at 2-digit pace: Revenues and EBITDA to post a 33% and 49% CAGR20A-23E respectively. We start coverage with a €5.40 p/s, given by a DCF model and peers’analysis
Somec
1H21 results confirm steady newsflow: Sales up 13% y/y to €128mn, EBITDA +33% y/y to €14mn, order backlog at its all-time high (€826mn). Fair value per share unchanged at €33 p/s on broadly stable sector ratings and unchanged forecasts
DHH
1H21: Sales up 8% y/y to €9.6mn, EBITDA at €3.5mn (EBITDA Margin >36%), on track with our full-year estimate.Fair value p/s revised up at €22.5 (from €20.4), driven by the update of DCF and Peers multiples, to be compared to current €14.9 stock market price.
MeglioQuesto
1H21: €28.4mn Revenues (+71.4% y/y) and 16.1% EBITDA Margin, in line with our 1H21 and full-year expectations.2021E-23E estimates broadly unchanged, Fair value confirmed at €4.60 p/s
Digital360
1H21 interim results highlight strong business momentum and highly value accretive M&A deals. New revised estimates and peers’ rerating lead to €5.30 fair equity value (up from previous €4.00), which would imply 11.3xEV/EBITDA,14.5x EV/EBIT Adj and 20.6x P/E Adj 2022E multiples, in line with the average of selected AIM Italia tech companies
Growens
1H21 came in line with our FY21E P&L expectations, and highlight signs of growth and profitability recovery. Positive news flow could come from new corporate projects, ranging from stock market uplisting, to M&A deals in Italy. We are finetuning 2021E-’22E estimates, and revising upwards our SoP valuation to €6.30 to factor in peers’ rerating and higher fair value for BEE.
MeglioQuesto
MQ is a domestic player specialized in outsourced omnichannel CX business across several industries ranging from telco to financial services, with plenty of growth potential ahead. We expect MQ to maintain its outstanding financial profile with topline and EBITDA up at high 2-digit CAGR20-23. We start coverage with a €4.60 fair value.
Digital360
Digital360 preliminary (unaudited) 1H21 financial figures are ahead of our full year estimates, highlighting strong y/y growth performance. Fair Value revised upward at €4.00 per share (from €3.25).